Jimena and Erika

During the next few months I will be on line only intermittently.  For quick indicators about tropical weather systems I recommend the Weather Channel if you have cable and also the Masters’ Blog at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

The Masters’ Blog link is usually at the upper part of the page on the right hand side.

Please remember if you are in tropical weather territory – it doesn’t always happen to the “other guy.”  And, though landfall events have not been abundant this season, 1992 was also an El Nino season with a slow start and only one hurricane made landfall upon the U.S. coast that year.  ANDREW!  My point?  “All it takes is one!”  I beg you to be prepared – even if you are far from the coast because the effects of a tropical weather system can be devastating many miles from where it makes landfall.

Here are the current potential pathway advisories on Jimena and Erika.

Left click the image in order to enlarge. In some

instances a second left click will enlarge even further.

HURRICANE IKE – WHY WAS THE GALVESTON SURGE LESS THAN PREDICTED?

Since the forward movement of a hurricane (translational motion) corresponds generally with the rotational motion’s direction in the right-hand leading quadrant of the storm, one expects the surge to be the greatest on that side.  At the left-hand leading quadrant the rotational motion’s direction is generally opposite that of the storm’s translational direction.  Ike make landfall very close to the forecast mid-line (a weighted mean) and of course very well within the cone of uncertainty.  In my opinion the forecasting was superb.

Watch this radar loop below of Ike from Thursday, 11 AM EDT to Saturday, 7 PM EDT.  After studying it for a few cycles you will note that Ike veered (to the right) in a decided fashion right before reaching the shore.  I recommend that as soon as the loop starts, focus your attention on Houston as you watch the storm get closer – and in short order you will see that “sharper” turn that I’m writing about.

Had Ike not gone in head-on into Galveston and Houston as it did, the surge would have been far worse.  As it worked out, Galveston Island got the benefit of the contrary winds from the north-northwest.  Even though that wind did cause water from the bay to come in it was not nearly as bad as it would have been had the eye crossed a bit south of where it did.  The less populated places on or near the coast and northeast of Galveston – places like Sabine Pass, Port Arthur, Beaumont, and Lake Charles got stronger winds and are probably more in turmoil per unit structure and per person than is Galveston.  They too were told to evacuate.

I’ve watched on television some of the rescue efforts that are already under way and I’ve seen some of the interviews with people who rode out the storm in Galveston.  My first thought has been, “Thank goodness they are alive” and my following thoughts have been, 1) “Why?” and 2) that those involved in rescue efforts could have been engaged in performing some type of safer but much-needed assistance had it not been for the stubborn refusal of those people to evacuate.

Sure, I understand the desire to be there to “protect” ones property and personal possessions but why do so when there is such a high probability that others will have to risk their necks to get you out of trouble.  I have especially negative feelings about those who would put their kids through such an event.

Today I’ve heard and read many comments from survivors.  Some baffle me – e.g.  “Those forecasters are never right,” and “I didn’t think it would be so bad.”  Any time now I expect to read or hear on television someone saying, “I knew it would take that turn before getting here!”

THIS RADAR LOOP IS COURTESY OF WEATHERUNDERGROUND.COM

YOU MIGHT HAVE TO LEFT CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO START THE LOOP

IKE – COMPARISON BETWEEN GFDL MODEL AND NWS MIDLINE

The two charts posted below are:

1) the National Weather Service 11 pm EDT 5-day forecast for Ike.

2) the GFDL model’s forecast position at about the same time (5 days out).

The GFDL has been the best performer for the last 3 years or so.  It appears to me that there is general agreement between its “5-day out” position and the NWS forecast mid-line position 5 days out.  In most cases the forecasters tell us to avoid focusing upon the mid-line (weighted mean line) and pay more attention to the cone of uncertainty.  Nevertheless, I want you to see the comparison.  This is partly because at this time, based upon my observations of past performance, I personally have high regard for the GFDL model’s conclusion and I feel certain that the NWS forecasters do too.  However, time will tell.

Finally, remember that the storm has quite a lot of energy-providing warm water to travel over before making landfall – no matter where that is.  Please don’t forget that storms can pull some very big surprises.  I feel that everyone on (and inland of) the Gulf Coast should stay alert to the storm’s behavior.  For example, I feel that my neighbors should remain alert.  We live about 20 miles in from the Crystal River, Florida Gulf coast.

I’m attending the first 4 hours of my 8 hour AARP driving refresher class in the morning – so there won’t be any posts until the afternoon.  I highly recommend the AARP-sponsored classes for those of you in the AARP age group.  I do it once every three years and always learn something of value and the instructors make it fun.

Hanna’s significant forecast change

BELOW – This most recent (REMEMBER – THE CHARTS ARE TIME SENSITIVE) forecast track and cone of uncertainty for Hanna is significantly altered from previous ones.

Gustav’s forecast, on the other hand, has not changed much but one change, if it turns out to be correct, can make a significant difference for New Orleans:  As it now stands the models’ landfall clusters indicates a higher probability than before that the city will experience the right-hand leading quadrant of the storm.  That quadrant is typically the most lethal.  However, it is still a long way off and noteworthy changes can occur between now and then.

5-day Forecast Track