IDA FORECAST – 11-8-09

Some of the information on this site is published close to “real-time”  particularly as it applies to tropical weather.  But it is important to remember that the only “official” source of information is the National Hurricane Center. Decisions concerning life or death, property, and such should not be made based solely on the information found on this site or any other sites that are recommended here. unless they are official. Listen to your local authorities when conditions are life-threatening or there is possible loss of property.

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THE ENTIRE FIRST PARAGRAPH THAT FOLLOWS  IS A DIRECT QUOTE FROM DR. JEFF MASTERS (PICTURED BELOW) THAT WAS CUT AND PASTED FROM HIS WEATHER UNDERGROUND SITE; DR. MASTERS IS MY MOST RELIABLE AND DEPENDABLE SOURCE WHEN IT COMES TO TROPICAL WEATHER; HE IS A DEDICATED ‘WINNER:”  ONE REASON WHY I DEPEND SO HEAVILY UPON HIS WORK IS THAT HE IS NOT OPERATING UNDER THE CONSTRAINTS OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTER BUT HE BENEFITS FROM THEIR INTERPRETATIONS AS WELL AS FROM OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RESOURCES.  HE IS DEDICATED, “UP FRONT,” AND RESPONSIBLE.

Dr. Jeff Masters

The forecast for Ida -

Posted: 10:21 AM EST on November 08, 2009

“The high wind shear of 20 – 25 knots currently affecting Ida is forecast to persist at that level until Monday night. Some slow intensification is still possible while Ida remains over the exceptionally warm water of the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico, through tonight (Figure 2). Late tonight, Ida will be crossing over waters of 26°C, which is barely enough to support a hurricane. With shear still expected to be at 20 -25 knots, I expect weakening to begin early Monday morning and accelerate on Monday afternoon. At that time, Ida will encounter 40 knots of wind shear associated with a cold front over the Gulf of Mexico, and begin transitioning to an extratropical storm. Exactly how strong Ida will be when it reaches the coast early Tuesday morning–and indeed if Ida even does reach the coast–is a forecast with high uncertainty. The computer models have a tough time forecasting the evolution of a tropical cyclone into an extratropical cyclone, and the models are all over the place on what will happen. Most of the models foresee a landfall near 1 am EST Tuesday between Mississippi and Pensacola, Florida, then a path northeastward over the Southeast U.S. However, Ida could come to halt before reaching the coast and turn west towards Tampa (the UKMET model’s forecast), or turn south back over the Gulf of Mexico (the NOGAPS model’s forecast). In any case, storm surge and heavy rain appear to be the main hazards from Ida. The GFDL model (Figure 3) is forecasting rain amounts of 4 – 8 inches for a large swath of the Gulf Coast, and there is a risk of tornadoes if the warm air from the core of Ida pushes ashore.”  END QUOTE

From my point of view, (this is Cloudman23 writing) everyone on the Gulf Coast  from Mississippi to Key West should have a “heads up” mindset while Ida is out there.  As Dr. Masters said, the computer models have a difficult time when the tropical to extratropical metamorphoses takes place.  Furthermore, the chance of tornadoes (mentioned by Dr. Masters) in association with warm, moist air from Ida and its inherent instability in such situations, this storm should not be taken lightly.

Ida’s Current Model Forecasts – 11-7-09

The total amount of thermal energy at the surface in the Western Caribbean is high and wind shear aloft is relative low so it is anticipated that Ida will intensify before striking the Yucatan Peninsula.  The Yucatan does not have the type of topography that we associate with significant weakening of a storm due to friction.  But, read what Dr. Jeff Masters says this morning about the fate of Ida after she enters the Gulf of Mexico:

“Once Ida crosses into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday night, the storm will encounter much cooler SSTs and a strong trough of low pressure that will dump cold air into the storm and bring 40 knots of wind shear. This will cause Ida to lose its tropical characteristics and become a powerful extratropical storm with 45 – 55 mph winds. It is highly unlikely that Ida will hit the U.S. as a tropical storm, but it could still bring tropical storm-force winds of 45 mph to the coast next week as an extratropical storm.”

As for me, I have been favoring the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model (GFDL) for the path that Ida will take; currently,  if I had to depend upon only one of the many models, that would be the one – in most instances anyway.  I have no real science to back that up – only my perception based upon experience.  Call it a “gut level” good feeling about the model’s past performance if you will.  Therefore I expect Ida to eventually curve rightward as the GFDL shows in the plot below.  By the time it does I expect it will have lost its tropical characteristics though the winds will still be strong.  In other words, it will become extratropical.  TO GET INSTRUCTIONS ON OBTAINING THE GFDL ANIMATION CLICK ON THE FOLLOWING LINK: http://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/08/30/gfdl-model-a-great-source-for-an-animation/http://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/08/30/gfdl-model-a-great-source-for-an-animation/

The prefix, extra, means “outside of” or “beyond.”  Extratropical cyclones are sometimes called cold core lows whereas tropical cyclones are warm core lows.  When a tropical cyclone draws in cold air (as usually happens when a front interferes with the storm) it becomes extratropical.  The majority of the world’s extratropical cyclones develop in the middle latitudes (30 degrees to 60 degrees latitude) and for that reason are often referred to as middle latitude cyclones.

Graphic courtesy of Jonathan Vigh of the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University

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Gulf Coast Residents – Ida Is Worth Watching

Ida developed quickly – in fact at a record pace (see Jeff Master’s Weather Blog at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1372).

Though relatively high wind shear could prevent Ida from becoming a significant threat to the U.S. mainland it is a storm that is worth watching, partly because warm Gulf waters could nurture it.

Here is a recent forecast plot from the National Hurricane Center (left click to enlarge image):

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Jimena and Erika

During the next few months I will be on line only intermittently.  For quick indicators about tropical weather systems I recommend the Weather Channel if you have cable and also the Masters’ Blog at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

The Masters’ Blog link is usually at the upper part of the page on the right hand side.

Please remember if you are in tropical weather territory – it doesn’t always happen to the “other guy.”  And, though landfall events have not been abundant this season, 1992 was also an El Nino season with a slow start and only one hurricane made landfall upon the U.S. coast that year.  ANDREW!  My point?  “All it takes is one!”  I beg you to be prepared – even if you are far from the coast because the effects of a tropical weather system can be devastating many miles from where it makes landfall.

Here are the current potential pathway advisories on Jimena and Erika.

Left click the image in order to enlarge. In some

instances a second left click will enlarge even further.

ANA, BILL, AND CLAUDETTE!

To have this current explosion of activity in the Gulf and Atlantic after so many quiet weeks is a real attention-getter.  Most recently, a tropical system off the Florida panhandle has developed into a tropical storm.  In the meantime Ana and Bill out in the Atlantic are both commanding attention.

Tropical systems are not all bad, particularly when the wind velocities are not too high and this is because they can provide much needed precipitation.  Let’s hope that these three systems prove to be more of an advantage than anything else.  So many people are reminded of Andrew in 1992, another year in which El Nino was a  factor.  Andrew was the only hurricane to make landfall in the U.S.A. that season but he was a whopper and there are many people yet today who will testify that it changed their lives – myself included.

I am likely to be inactive on this site for the next few days for two reasons.  My laptop is behaving badly and either needs some serious attention (like a new hard drive) or I need to bite the bullet and get another machine.  Also – I will be traveling.  For those of you who know me – don’t be alarmed.  The traveling has nothing to do with the current tropical weather activity.

In the meantime if you want to stay on top of things weatherwise I recommend the Weather Channel if you have cable and also the Masters’ Blog at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

The Masters’ Blog link is usually at the upper part of the page on the right hand side.

Peace be with you!

tat

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Hurricane Outlook for August 2009

Notice the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone

to the north of the Equator this time of year.

Left clicks should enlarge this image for you.

Dr. Jeff Masters is my primary source for hurricane information.  His is a hard act to follow.  Therefore, I refer you to his “August Hurricane Outlook” discussion released on August 1, 2009.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1267

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE – JULY 20, 2009

LEFT CLICK TO ENLARGE THIS IMAGE

TIME SENSITIVE! – THIS WAS POSTED AROUND

11:30 PM EST

ON JULY 20, 2009.

A tropical disturbance (also known as a tropical wave) has moved over Barbados and is continuing on its general path toward a direction just a little north of west.  The image above is a color-enhanced infrared.  At the time of this posting, the National Hurricane Center is indicating that they do not expect development into a cyclonic system within the next 48 hours.  To be cyclonic there must be a closed rotation.  tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere (except in the higher levels of the storms).  For more information on cyclonic circulation in a hurricane go to this link:

http://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/09/09/hurricane-circulation-lesson-1/

My most trusted source, Dr. Jeff Masters, at this time expects the disturbance to be torn apart by upper level wind shear within the next few days.

To follow Dr. Masters’ reports, go to the following link:

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=34442

Then, in the “Features” bar at the top, click on Tropical/Hurricane.

That will take you to his Wunderblog feature which usually appears on the right hand side of the page.

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Tropical Wave AL 93 Might Dance Within a Few Days!

A second left click should enlarge image further.

There is a possibility that the very interesting Fujiwhara effect might occur within the next few days.  In the image above I have placed a red dot upon the tropical disturbance that is tormenting Puerto Rico and Eastern Hispaniola and a light blue dot upon an extratropical low that is off the Eastern Seaboard and probably kicking up some big waves.  If the tropical system shoots north as the models are predicting, the two could interact in the Fujiwhara effect.  Here is a well-written link about that phenomenon.

http://weather.about.com/od/hurricaneformation/a/Fujiwhara.htm

The extratropical system might even back up a bit in response to a rotation around a common axis with the tropical system.  Go to this link now if you would like to see a rendition of what might happen:  (There are four helpful buttons – reverse, stop. forward, and single step).

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?eta_pcpn_slp_thkn+///6

SPECIAL NOTE:  THE LINK IMMEDIATELY ABOVE IS VERY TIME SENSITIVE.  IT MAY NOT SHOW WHAT I’VE DISCUSSED IN THIS BLOG UNLESS YOU VIEW IT ON THE DAY THIS WAS POSTED.   AFTERWARDS THE FORECAST MIGHT CHANGE.  IF THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT ACTUALLY COMES TO FRUITION WE WILL BE ABLE TO SEE IT VIA LOOPS THAT ACCELERATE TIME.

Of course, I did not come up with this notion on my own.  My tip came from the WeatherUnderground blog posted by Dr. Jeff Masters at 10:43 AM EDT today (September 23, 2008).  He also mentioned it yesterday.

Natural processes can be lethal and cause heartbreak but they can also be breathtakingly beautiful.  If the Fujiwhara effect happens to occur, perhaps we will have the opportunity to watch two spiraling systems dance together for a while, just as spiraling galaxies can do as they get close to each other.  Let’s hope the prediction is “right on” and that we can focus upon an event that is NOT creating havoc as did Ike.  Enjoy!

Location of Gilchrist House Confirmed!

Thanks to images posted by Dr. Jeff Masters this morning on the WeatherUnderground.com site, aerial images before and after have confirmed the location of the lonely little house that seems to have survived the ravages of Ike.  I have reworked the scale of the images he posted and placed red arrows marking the house that has been being addressed in this web-log.  It confirms the suspicions of myself and others that the house was either rebuilt or replaced between the time that Google loaded it’s images and today.  After I post the before and after images I will paste in Dr. Masters’ specific comments about Gilchrist.  Remember, for an enlarged view – left click two times.

Why did Gilchrist get destroyed

and Will Gilchrist be rebuilt?

By Dr. Jeff Masters

WeatherUnderground.com http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

“It’s rare to see a town so completely destroyed by a hurricane, to the point where you can’t even see the wreckage. The neighboring towns of Crystal Beach, to the south, and High Island, to the north, were also mostly destroyed, but weren’t swept clean of nearly all structures and wreckage. This is because Gilchrist was built in an unusually vulnerable place. It’s bad enough to situate your town on a low-lying peninsula, as was the case for Crystal Beach. But in Gilchrist’s case, the town was located at the narrowest point of the Bolivar Peninsula, at a point where it was only a few hundred meters wide (Figure 2). Not only did Gilchrist suffer a head-on assault by Ike’s direct storm surge of 14+ feet, topped by 20′ high battering waves, the town also suffered a reverse surge once the hurricane had passed. As Ike moved to the north, the counter-clockwise flow of wind around the storm pushed Galveston Bay’s waters back across the town of Gilchrist from northwest to southeast. This second surge of water likely finished off anything the main storm surge had left.

I hope the government will see fit to buy up the land that was once the town of Gilchrist and make it into a park. Building a town in Gilchrist’s location makes as much sense as building a town on the sides of an active volcano. (Unfortunately, there are plenty of people who have done just that, such as on the slopes of Vesuvius in Italy). If past history is any guide, Gilchrist will be rebuilt, and it will take another mighty hurricane to permanently take down the town. That was the case for the town of Indianola, Texas, which lay in a vulnerable low-lying location on the shores of Matagorda Bay in the mid-1800’s. Indianola was the second largest port in the state of Texas, and home to 5,000 people. In 1875, a powerful Category 3 hurricane piled up a huge storm surge as it came ashore in Indianola. The surge destroyed 3/4 of the town’s 2,000 buildings, and killed 176 people. The city was rebuilt, but in 1886, a devastating Category 4 hurricane swept almost the entire town of Indianola into Matagorda Bay, killing another 250 townspeople. The people of Indianola finally gave up and moved elsewhere, and the ruins of their town now lie under fifteen feet of water in Matagorda Bay.”

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Galveston Occupants and Others Along That Coast – GET OUT OF THERE

I learned while watching the Weather Channel around 12:15 pm EDT that about half of the residents of Galveston are still there.  That is not good news.  I suspect that the wind speeds and category of the hurricane are within the range of what many people feel they can handle – but that is not sound thinking.  What I fear they are failing to consider is the size of the storm.  According to Dr. Jeff Masters from WeatherUnderground, the “Integrated Kinetic Energy” for Ike is 30% higher than was that of Katrina.  So – a huge amount of water is being pushed (and pulled) ashore by the storm.  It is not merely the wind velocity that determines the magnitude of the surge; the size of the storm is a very important factor.  It’s as if you were the quarterback and you had your choice of being sacked by the fastest defender or being “stopped and stomped” by the entire front line.  The linemen would represent far more total energy, even though each is slower than the fastest defender.

IT IS NOT WISE TO FOCUS ON ONE MODEL.  THE FOLLOWING IMAGE IS USED FOR SAKE OF PROVIDING A GENERAL IDEA ONLY.  HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE ALL IN GREAT AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 32 HOURS OF MOVEMENT.

PLEASE, IF YOU ARE IN HARMS WAY – SURELY YOU HAVE BEING WARNED.  IT DOESN’T ALWAYS HAPPEN TO THE OTHER GUY!  THIS TIME YOU COULD BE THAT OTHER GUY!  IF YOU ARE NOT ALONE AND ARE THE DECISION-MAKER WITHIN YOUR GROUP – DON’T BE MR. OR MS. MACHO!  GET THE HECK OUT OF THERE!  IF YOU ARE NOT THE DECISION-MAKER IN YOUR GROUP, IT’S TIME FOR A NON-VIOLENT MUTINY!  GET YOUR POSTERIORS OUT OF THERE!

TWO LEFT CLICKS ON THE IMAGE BELOW SHOULD MAKE IT LARGER.

Source = PSU Department of Meteorology