Ida – Some Model Plots released tonight – 11-9-09

Here are some model forecasts for Ida (release time 10 PM EST.  Left click the image to enlarge.

If you wish to see other posts on this web-log

but are unable,

please click on the “blog” tab

near the top of this page.

Ida Is Weakening As Predicted – 11-9-09

The visible satellite image below is from 10:15 AM Eastern Time.  Wind shear has increased over Ida and it has moved off the warm Loop Current.  Dry air has been drawn in and has significantly disrupted the storms symmetry.  Water temperatures under her are barely enough to support a hurricane.  My source expects 50 to 60 mph winds when she makes landfall.  My advice is to consult the Weather Channel on television and/or your favorite on-line sources.

Currently, 19 ft. waves are being formed by the storm’s winds.  After watching a satellite loop showing the storms movement, I placed a blue dot as my approximation of the center.

Some of the information on this site is published close to “real-time”  particularly as it applies to tropical weather.  But it is important to remember that the only “official” source of information is the National Hurricane Center. Decisions concerning life or death, property, and such should not be made based solely on the information found on this site or any other sites that are recommended here. unless they are official. Listen to your local authorities when conditions are life-threatening or there is possible loss of property.

If you wish to see other posts on this web-log

but are unable,

please click on the “blog” tab

near the top of this page.

IDA FORECAST – 11-8-09

Some of the information on this site is published close to “real-time”  particularly as it applies to tropical weather.  But it is important to remember that the only “official” source of information is the National Hurricane Center. Decisions concerning life or death, property, and such should not be made based solely on the information found on this site or any other sites that are recommended here. unless they are official. Listen to your local authorities when conditions are life-threatening or there is possible loss of property.

If you wish to see other posts on this web-log

but are unable,

please click on the “blog” tab

near the top of this page.

THE ENTIRE FIRST PARAGRAPH THAT FOLLOWS  IS A DIRECT QUOTE FROM DR. JEFF MASTERS (PICTURED BELOW) THAT WAS CUT AND PASTED FROM HIS WEATHER UNDERGROUND SITE; DR. MASTERS IS MY MOST RELIABLE AND DEPENDABLE SOURCE WHEN IT COMES TO TROPICAL WEATHER; HE IS A DEDICATED ‘WINNER:”  ONE REASON WHY I DEPEND SO HEAVILY UPON HIS WORK IS THAT HE IS NOT OPERATING UNDER THE CONSTRAINTS OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTER BUT HE BENEFITS FROM THEIR INTERPRETATIONS AS WELL AS FROM OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RESOURCES.  HE IS DEDICATED, “UP FRONT,” AND RESPONSIBLE.

Dr. Jeff Masters

The forecast for Ida -

Posted: 10:21 AM EST on November 08, 2009

“The high wind shear of 20 – 25 knots currently affecting Ida is forecast to persist at that level until Monday night. Some slow intensification is still possible while Ida remains over the exceptionally warm water of the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico, through tonight (Figure 2). Late tonight, Ida will be crossing over waters of 26°C, which is barely enough to support a hurricane. With shear still expected to be at 20 -25 knots, I expect weakening to begin early Monday morning and accelerate on Monday afternoon. At that time, Ida will encounter 40 knots of wind shear associated with a cold front over the Gulf of Mexico, and begin transitioning to an extratropical storm. Exactly how strong Ida will be when it reaches the coast early Tuesday morning–and indeed if Ida even does reach the coast–is a forecast with high uncertainty. The computer models have a tough time forecasting the evolution of a tropical cyclone into an extratropical cyclone, and the models are all over the place on what will happen. Most of the models foresee a landfall near 1 am EST Tuesday between Mississippi and Pensacola, Florida, then a path northeastward over the Southeast U.S. However, Ida could come to halt before reaching the coast and turn west towards Tampa (the UKMET model’s forecast), or turn south back over the Gulf of Mexico (the NOGAPS model’s forecast). In any case, storm surge and heavy rain appear to be the main hazards from Ida. The GFDL model (Figure 3) is forecasting rain amounts of 4 – 8 inches for a large swath of the Gulf Coast, and there is a risk of tornadoes if the warm air from the core of Ida pushes ashore.”  END QUOTE

From my point of view, (this is Cloudman23 writing) everyone on the Gulf Coast  from Mississippi to Key West should have a “heads up” mindset while Ida is out there.  As Dr. Masters said, the computer models have a difficult time when the tropical to extratropical metamorphoses takes place.  Furthermore, the chance of tornadoes (mentioned by Dr. Masters) in association with warm, moist air from Ida and its inherent instability in such situations, this storm should not be taken lightly.

Ida’s Current Model Forecasts – 11-7-09

The total amount of thermal energy at the surface in the Western Caribbean is high and wind shear aloft is relative low so it is anticipated that Ida will intensify before striking the Yucatan Peninsula.  The Yucatan does not have the type of topography that we associate with significant weakening of a storm due to friction.  But, read what Dr. Jeff Masters says this morning about the fate of Ida after she enters the Gulf of Mexico:

“Once Ida crosses into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday night, the storm will encounter much cooler SSTs and a strong trough of low pressure that will dump cold air into the storm and bring 40 knots of wind shear. This will cause Ida to lose its tropical characteristics and become a powerful extratropical storm with 45 – 55 mph winds. It is highly unlikely that Ida will hit the U.S. as a tropical storm, but it could still bring tropical storm-force winds of 45 mph to the coast next week as an extratropical storm.”

As for me, I have been favoring the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model (GFDL) for the path that Ida will take; currently,  if I had to depend upon only one of the many models, that would be the one – in most instances anyway.  I have no real science to back that up – only my perception based upon experience.  Call it a “gut level” good feeling about the model’s past performance if you will.  Therefore I expect Ida to eventually curve rightward as the GFDL shows in the plot below.  By the time it does I expect it will have lost its tropical characteristics though the winds will still be strong.  In other words, it will become extratropical.  TO GET INSTRUCTIONS ON OBTAINING THE GFDL ANIMATION CLICK ON THE FOLLOWING LINK: http://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/08/30/gfdl-model-a-great-source-for-an-animation/http://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/08/30/gfdl-model-a-great-source-for-an-animation/

The prefix, extra, means “outside of” or “beyond.”  Extratropical cyclones are sometimes called cold core lows whereas tropical cyclones are warm core lows.  When a tropical cyclone draws in cold air (as usually happens when a front interferes with the storm) it becomes extratropical.  The majority of the world’s extratropical cyclones develop in the middle latitudes (30 degrees to 60 degrees latitude) and for that reason are often referred to as middle latitude cyclones.

Graphic courtesy of Jonathan Vigh of the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University

If you wish to see other posts on this web-log

but are unable,

please click on the “blog” tab

near the top of this page.

IDA MODEL FORECASTS – 11-6-09

Thanks to the very fine work by Jonathan Vigh of the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University I am able to provide you this morning’s model forecasts for Ida.  Left click to enlarge image.

If you wish to see other posts on this web-log

but are unable,

please click on the “blog” tab

near the top of this page.

Gulf Coast Residents – Ida Is Worth Watching

Ida developed quickly – in fact at a record pace (see Jeff Master’s Weather Blog at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1372).

Though relatively high wind shear could prevent Ida from becoming a significant threat to the U.S. mainland it is a storm that is worth watching, partly because warm Gulf waters could nurture it.

Here is a recent forecast plot from the National Hurricane Center (left click to enlarge image):

If you wish to see other posts on this web-log

but are unable,

please click on the “blog” tab

near the top of this page.

Ike – Less Than 72 Hours Away From Texas?

CAUTION – THIS POST IS TIME SENSITIVE – THE TIME ESTIMATES AND GRAPHIC NO LONGER APPLY

Though the validity date stamp on late cycle spaghetti plots is not as recent as some available to you on line, it is my opinion that they provide a more accurate picture.  The following late cycle plot for Ike pretty much tells it all with regard to a Texas coast landfall.  I am inclined to place a high personal degree of confidence upon this.  However, hurricanes in the past have pulled some terrific surprises.  If you are anywhere else along the Gulf Coast, particularly other segments of the western margin of the Gulf and the western half of the northern Gulf coast – I would not let my guard down if I were you.  And, if you are, say, 50 miles inland, consider that at the nearest point, Baton Rouge is about 60 miles from the Gulf and over 100 miles from the Gulf along a line in the direction that Gustav moved.  Do a search and see what a mess they are in – right now. According to the “Advocate” newspaper today, there are still 57,775 residents without electricity.  And their winds were mainly tropical storm force though some gusts up to 91mph were reported.

If you are in harm’s way with Ike, I suggest you think in terms of evacuation.  As I understand it, evacuation directives have already been issued along some parts of the Texas coast.  Please read my September 8 post (just 2 days ago) titled “Window Protection For Hurricanes Essential.”  If it’s not on this page it will be on page 2.  At the apparent end of the post there is a place where you can click and read an account of my family’s experience in the aftermath of hurricane Andrew.  Read it and ask yourself if you want to try to ride out a big hurricane.  If you think life is stressful now – try adding the trauma of enduring the dangers of a strong hurricane and then, if you live, dealing with the high probability of post-traumatic issues.  I can think of nothing material worth trying to “protect” when a storm is in progress.  The time to protect “things” is before a storm.  It is still not too late to do some of that and then get the heck out of there.  You are far more important than any material thing.

“The Plot (below) is provided courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University. For more information about this graphic, click here.”

LEFT CLICK THE IMAGE TWICE FOR A LARGER VIEW

Hurricane Ike

My grandsons are getting all of my time tomorrow during most of the daylight hours.  I don’t expect to return to this laptop until about 8 pm EST at which time I’ll be preparing a post while watching the University of Florida – University of Miami football game on television.

The image posted below is not complete.  I have prepared it to show you the GFDL models prediction released at 2 pm EDT today for the POSITION of hurricane Ike 5 days from that time (in other words for Wednesday the 10th).  It is my opinion that predictions beyond five days are exercises in futility and that declaration is not original thinking on my part.  It is what I have learned from others far better equipped than Cloudman23 to make such evaluations.  However, I have consulted the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting model (ECMWF) and find it interesting that it shows Ike moving similarly to the GFDL but since it is projecting further out in time it shows the storm moving through the Gulf and up to the Louisiana-Texas border by Friday the 12th.  WARNING: SUCH A PREDICTION, NO MATTER HOW POWERFUL AND COMPREHENSIVE THE MODEL, SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN TOO SERIOUSLY AT THIS POINT – CERTAINLY NOT TO THE DEGREE THAT OCCUPANTS IN OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ATLANTIC COAST LET THEIR GUARDS DOWN.  AT THIS POINT IN TIME THAT WOULD BE A VERY SERIOUS MISTAKE.,

This is no storm to take lightly.  It is potentially lethal to more than just a few people and places.  So I am pleading with those of you in an area where this storm might move – please keep a close watch and as I’ve said before, have a plan.  You do not want to be in this one if its bite is as impressive as its bark (and it’s echo).  Don’t let complacency rule.  If you suffer from that disease that seems to be epidemic in our country today, terminal uniqueness, please don’t be too crafty for your own good.  Please listen to the experts – ignore me if you choose – but listen to them.  At the very least I recommend that you pay attention to the Weather Channel, the National Hurricane Center and the WeatherUnderground tropical pages.  Moments ago I added a link on this page to the latter.  Don’t perceive the forecast plot to be a line or an arc.  Heed the “cone of uncertainty.”  This hurricane could pull some tracking surprises but he’s likely to be very strong no matter where he goes.

I may add one more post before calling it a night.  If I do it will be a short hurricane Andrew story.

LEFT CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

If you would like to examine the site from which the graphic above was derived, and also the ECMWF and a few other models, use this link:     http://tc.met.psu.edu/

A LOOK AT ALL THREE – HANNA, IKE, AND JOSEPHINE

I am posting two images at this time.

The first is from http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/.  I observed it just before midnight (a short time ago).  It shows percentage probabilities for tropical storm force winds for Hanna.  This is the first time I’ve shown you a chart of this type.  Please remember that the numbers on the scale are NOT wind velocities.

The second chart was also observed just before midnight.  It shows forecast paths and “cones of uncertainty” for all three that are being closely watched in the Atlantic – Hanna, Ike, and Josephine.  Above all, notice the magnitude of Ike!

From what I have been reading and observing tonight, I feel that the depiction of Ike veering and heading northward at the time shown might be incorrect.  There are so many variables to contend with but I lean toward the notion that it might move further south as it continues it’s path generally toward the west.  It could get into the Gulf of Mexico.  It is my opinion that such a possibility should not be ignored by those along the Florida Gulf Coast and also other Gulf Coastal occupants.  As I keep saying – time will tell.

I happen to feel that the National Hurricane Center forecasters do a terrific job.  One day I might write on the subject of what it is like to be in their position.  They are between a rock and a hard place – that’s for sure.

Gustav Generating Conditions Conducive to Tornadoes

The short loop below is from the National Weather Service radar.  The loop ends at 4:38 pm EDT (you can watch the time references on the lower left.  Notice the rain bands that are drawing their moisture up from the SSW (warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico).  So, the storm is still being fed by the primary source of energy for all hurricanes, tropical storms, tropical depressions, tropical waves, lines of thunderstorms and individual thunderstorms – the latent heat of condensation.

LEFT CLICK TO ENLARGE

Short Radar Loop from NWS

Please visit the rest of this web-log at http://cloudman23.wordpress.com/.  If you are interested in weather, there are some tutorials scattered about and more will be added in time.  At the end of this page there is a cue to click to the previous page or the next page.