IDA FORECAST – 11-8-09

Some of the information on this site is published close to “real-time”  particularly as it applies to tropical weather.  But it is important to remember that the only “official” source of information is the National Hurricane Center. Decisions concerning life or death, property, and such should not be made based solely on the information found on this site or any other sites that are recommended here. unless they are official. Listen to your local authorities when conditions are life-threatening or there is possible loss of property.

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THE ENTIRE FIRST PARAGRAPH THAT FOLLOWS  IS A DIRECT QUOTE FROM DR. JEFF MASTERS (PICTURED BELOW) THAT WAS CUT AND PASTED FROM HIS WEATHER UNDERGROUND SITE; DR. MASTERS IS MY MOST RELIABLE AND DEPENDABLE SOURCE WHEN IT COMES TO TROPICAL WEATHER; HE IS A DEDICATED ‘WINNER:”  ONE REASON WHY I DEPEND SO HEAVILY UPON HIS WORK IS THAT HE IS NOT OPERATING UNDER THE CONSTRAINTS OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTER BUT HE BENEFITS FROM THEIR INTERPRETATIONS AS WELL AS FROM OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RESOURCES.  HE IS DEDICATED, “UP FRONT,” AND RESPONSIBLE.

Dr. Jeff Masters

The forecast for Ida -

Posted: 10:21 AM EST on November 08, 2009

“The high wind shear of 20 – 25 knots currently affecting Ida is forecast to persist at that level until Monday night. Some slow intensification is still possible while Ida remains over the exceptionally warm water of the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico, through tonight (Figure 2). Late tonight, Ida will be crossing over waters of 26°C, which is barely enough to support a hurricane. With shear still expected to be at 20 -25 knots, I expect weakening to begin early Monday morning and accelerate on Monday afternoon. At that time, Ida will encounter 40 knots of wind shear associated with a cold front over the Gulf of Mexico, and begin transitioning to an extratropical storm. Exactly how strong Ida will be when it reaches the coast early Tuesday morning–and indeed if Ida even does reach the coast–is a forecast with high uncertainty. The computer models have a tough time forecasting the evolution of a tropical cyclone into an extratropical cyclone, and the models are all over the place on what will happen. Most of the models foresee a landfall near 1 am EST Tuesday between Mississippi and Pensacola, Florida, then a path northeastward over the Southeast U.S. However, Ida could come to halt before reaching the coast and turn west towards Tampa (the UKMET model’s forecast), or turn south back over the Gulf of Mexico (the NOGAPS model’s forecast). In any case, storm surge and heavy rain appear to be the main hazards from Ida. The GFDL model (Figure 3) is forecasting rain amounts of 4 – 8 inches for a large swath of the Gulf Coast, and there is a risk of tornadoes if the warm air from the core of Ida pushes ashore.”  END QUOTE

From my point of view, (this is Cloudman23 writing) everyone on the Gulf Coast  from Mississippi to Key West should have a “heads up” mindset while Ida is out there.  As Dr. Masters said, the computer models have a difficult time when the tropical to extratropical metamorphoses takes place.  Furthermore, the chance of tornadoes (mentioned by Dr. Masters) in association with warm, moist air from Ida and its inherent instability in such situations, this storm should not be taken lightly.

IDA MODEL FORECASTS – 11-6-09

Thanks to the very fine work by Jonathan Vigh of the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University I am able to provide you this morning’s model forecasts for Ida.  Left click to enlarge image.

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ERIKA – KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON THE EAST COAST

Graphic courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State.

LEFT CLICK GRAPHIC TO ENLARGE

and a second time to enlarge even further.

The models have a “ways to go” in order to reach what I consider a healthy agreement on Erika’s future path.  My “gut-level” feeling, for what it’s worth, is that even though the storm is likely to be disturbed a great deal by shear aloft, there is a strong chance that it could reorganize (come back to life) once that shear diminishes.  On the basis of some of the projections, I would not be surprised to see Erika sneeking up to near North Carolina around the 10th or 11th.  Of course I hope I’m wrong.  My wish, always, is that our tropical systems give us needed moisture without doing damage or causing stress and anxiety.  Perhaps that’s asking too much but as the old (1938) standard song says, “I can dream, can’t I?”

THIS IS A TIME-SENSITIVE POSTING

Jimena and Erika

During the next few months I will be on line only intermittently.  For quick indicators about tropical weather systems I recommend the Weather Channel if you have cable and also the Masters’ Blog at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

The Masters’ Blog link is usually at the upper part of the page on the right hand side.

Please remember if you are in tropical weather territory – it doesn’t always happen to the “other guy.”  And, though landfall events have not been abundant this season, 1992 was also an El Nino season with a slow start and only one hurricane made landfall upon the U.S. coast that year.  ANDREW!  My point?  “All it takes is one!”  I beg you to be prepared – even if you are far from the coast because the effects of a tropical weather system can be devastating many miles from where it makes landfall.

Here are the current potential pathway advisories on Jimena and Erika.

Left click the image in order to enlarge. In some

instances a second left click will enlarge even further.

The Hurricane Season of 2009 Has Begun!

MOST IMAGES ON THIS WEBLOG ENLARGE WITH LEFT CLICKS

This image shows no tropical activity 15 minutes into our 2009 season (not surprisingly) but you can clearly see the clouds development with a stationary front cutting diagonally across the image.

The Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean hurricane season “officially” begins on June 1.  The fact that Tropical Depression 1 formed about 4 days before the official season’s beginning is not an indication of an active hurricane season this year.  There seems to be no relationship between early activity and the “busyness” of that season.  In fact, there is a real possibility that an El Niño event will be strong during what we consider the peak activity period of our season (the approximate middle of the 6 month long period).  Eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures have been rising steadily for the last several months pointing to the El Niño possibility.  That means is that our 2009 season might be less active than usual if the ENSO comes to fruition.  ENSO = El Niño Southern Oscillation.  BUT, even if a strong El Niño develops it is no time to let down one’s guard if living in “hurricane country.”  1992 was an El Niño year and that was when Andrew occurred.  My house in Homestead was a total loss.

I was extremely well prepared back then (August 24, 1992) but hurricane Andrew slammed in as a category 5.  However, we did have a plan and it worked to the degree that no one in my family was physically hurt.  Only one window had a small crack but – the roof failed and the damage was almost beyond belief for us.  Since Andrew was a relatively dry storm our windows holding firm did make it so that we were able to salvage some valuable items afterwards because the wind did not gut the house.

We stayed in the community and helped rebuild.  We had great insurance and our house was reconstructed in one year to a higher standard.  During that time we four lived in a 25’ travel trailer that I purchased for that purpose but kept for several years afterwards to use for recreational and educational travel.

If you live in “hurricane country” then you have choices.  Some of us have more choices than others but you should at least have a plan that is clearly articulated to and understood by each member of your household.  Shall you be well prepared or do you choose to become a potential victim who is dependent upon others almost immediately after a storm?

I urge you to follow to the best of your ability those preparation suggestions made by your local and federal agencies.  Some of us are more fortunate than others in what we are able to do to protect our dwellings – that is, those of us who are lucky enough to have a place we call home.

In my new post-retirement community and in neighboring communities (Citrus and neighboring counties)  I see what I consider to be real paradoxes or, at the very least, some irony.  I’m reminded (but to a somewhat lesser degree) of one of my Homestead neighbors who drove a Mercedes while his wife drove a BMW; they owned a very large boat moored at a dock in nearby Biscayne Bay, an ultra-light aircraft and a twin Cessna – yet they had no window protection of any sort for their home.  I speculate that it was not a matter of the cost of such protection but more a matter of priorities and life style with perhaps a little measure of denial thrown in.

Some people in my part of Florida feel that by being inland they have some sort of immunity to the ravages of hurricanes.  Yes – it is an advantage being inland, especially if on high ground but it does not offer any guarantees.  Most deaths in hurricanes (on the average) are due to high water and being away from the storm surge zones and areas prone to flooding from the storm’s downpours makes for a safer situation – generally speaking.  But, high winds can play havoc particularly when items become projectiles in the wind.  It is a fact that if the wind velocity doubles, the force it exerts upon a surface it is striking at right angles quadruples!  People in my part of Florida experienced a lot of activity if they were here in 2004 but the wind velocities were luckily relatively low.  Only modestly higher wind velocities would have produced exponentially greater force and far greater damage.  Furthermore, tornadoes and microbursts occur within hurricane bands and neither have a preference for locations near the coast.

Come early August we will have been in our new home for four years.  Our first major purchase when moving in was window and door storm protection.  We had tended to that “need” before we were even set up with a cable connection for our televisions and computers.  For the first two years that we were here I participated in a number of hurricane expos as the “hurricane resource person” on site.  There were expo participants who were in the business of selling, fabricating, and installing storm protection to homes and businesses.  Most visitors were there to learn about hurricane safety and hurricane protection.  But one particular type of visitor seemed to come to these expos in order to exercise their debate skills on the pros and cons of storm protection for windows and doors.  I was amazed at times by the level of denial and warped rationalization that I witnessed.  Some argued that they refused to concern themselves with such matters and would just let their insurance take care of it for them.  There was little if any consideration for how they would deal with losses of personal items, safety issues if they were not to evacuate, safety issues if they were to evacuate, where they would go if they did evacuate in time, and how they would handle matters when they returned if things were torn all to hell!  I am convinced that some of the men I talked to felt that it was a manly thing to face a storm raw without preparation – even though in some case it meant leaving their house mates far more vulnerable than necessary.  To my mind, they had it backwards  – a real man takes care of his own and is available to help others as well.

I can testify, by experience, that the trauma of a storm itself often does not compare to the trauma of the immediate aftermath and rebuilding.  Looting, for example and other forms of predatory behavior can occur.  In heavily damaged areas the majority of those who come to help are good people with good intentions but there is one whole class of “helpers” who are there to take victims for a ride they will never forget.  In South Dade County, where Andrew first struck the U.S.A. the divorce rate just about doubled for the next few years.  Stress and anxiety were on a very high level.

So – please think in terms of the big picture when a hurricane visits – not simply the weather event itself.  Think in terms of what you’ll do if you lose electricity for several days and how you will fare food-wise if you need to go for a week or more without provisions and how you’ll communicate.  Cell phones go out of commission when the transmission and relay towers are damaged.  Then there are the special needs people who absolutely must make arrangements for care in the event of a serious storm.

Please be prepared to the best of your ability.  If you later consider all of that planning and work to be for naught because no hurricane occurs in your region – there will be more seasons to follow for which you will again be ready and if, near the end of the season, you have a box full of “emergency food” there are surely some places near where you live to donate it to the needy.  After all, the end of the official hurricane season (November 30) and Thanksgiving (November 26) are pretty darned close to each other.

Here is this season’s list of names; tropical cyclonic systems will receive names in order from this list once they reach tropical storm intensity; tropical storm sustained winds fall in the range of 39 mph to 73 mph; of course they retain their names if they become hurricanes (74 mph or more):

Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

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HURRICANE MISCONCEPTIONS – A LIST OF 23

Image source of Ike radar loop = Weather Underground

LEFT CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE AND SEE A RADAR LOOP OF IKE AS HE COMES INTO VIEW AND EVENTUALLY MAKES LANDFALL.  WATCH FOR A DISTINCT RIGHT TURN TRACKING DIRECTLY TOWARD HOUSTON JUST BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.  IF IT HAD CONTINUED STRAIGHT, THE WINDS AND THE SURGE ALONG THE COAST AT GALVESTON AND SOUTHWESTWARD WOULD HAVE BEEN EVEN WORSE BECAUSE THAT COAST WOULD HAVE BEEN CROSSED BY THE RIGHT-HAND LEADING QUADRANT OF THE STORM

(see item 13 below).

23 COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT HURRICANES

©* Tonie Ansel Toney (see conditions for copying at the end)

http://cloudman23.wordpress.com/

I have learned of these misconceptions by communicating through the years with my students, friends, neighbors, attendees of some of the hurricane seminars that I have conducted and visitors to hurricane expos where I have given presentations.  Most of this occurred in Florida.  I learned that these items have been relatively “common” misconceptions through informal pre-tests I have given to college students at the beginning of certain semesters, answers to questions I have asked in classes during the course of myriad semesters, through conversations with people of all walks of life (and a broad range of ages and experience), and by listening carefully.

ALL 23 UPPER CASE STATEMENTS ARE FALSE IN SOME WAY.  BRIEF EXPLANATIONS FOLLOW.

1. IF THE SPEED OF WIND BLOWING DIRECTLY INTO THE SIDE OF A DWELLING CHANGES FROM 40 MPH TO 80 MPH, THE FORCE THAT IT EXERTS INTO THE STRUCTURE WILL INCREASE TO TWICE WHAT IT WAS. THE TRUTH: A doubling of the velocity will cause a four-fold increase of the force upon a surface being struck at right angles.  The relationship is “exponential,” not “linear.”

2. IF, DURING A HURRICANE, YOUR TRUE WIND DIRECTION IS FROM THE SOUTH, THE HURRICANE’S EYE IS TO THE NORTH OF YOU. THE TRUTH:  It is generally west of you.  Hurricane winds move approximately parallel to (or concentric with) the nearly circular eye-wall.  A good rule-of-thumb for eye location (in the Northern Hemisphere) is: Imagine standing with the wind at your back.  Extend your left arm out from your side and your hand will be pointing toward the eye.

3. IF AN APPROACHING HURRICANE IS ABOUT ONE DAY AWAY, PRUNING OF TREES IS ADVISABLE. THE TRUTH:  It is too late to prune at that time – it should have been done much sooner, preferably prior to the hurricane season.  Pruned material must be disposed of properly – if lying around the items can become a dangerous airborne hazards.

Hurricane Ike

My grandsons are getting all of my time tomorrow during most of the daylight hours.  I don’t expect to return to this laptop until about 8 pm EST at which time I’ll be preparing a post while watching the University of Florida – University of Miami football game on television.

The image posted below is not complete.  I have prepared it to show you the GFDL models prediction released at 2 pm EDT today for the POSITION of hurricane Ike 5 days from that time (in other words for Wednesday the 10th).  It is my opinion that predictions beyond five days are exercises in futility and that declaration is not original thinking on my part.  It is what I have learned from others far better equipped than Cloudman23 to make such evaluations.  However, I have consulted the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting model (ECMWF) and find it interesting that it shows Ike moving similarly to the GFDL but since it is projecting further out in time it shows the storm moving through the Gulf and up to the Louisiana-Texas border by Friday the 12th.  WARNING: SUCH A PREDICTION, NO MATTER HOW POWERFUL AND COMPREHENSIVE THE MODEL, SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN TOO SERIOUSLY AT THIS POINT – CERTAINLY NOT TO THE DEGREE THAT OCCUPANTS IN OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ATLANTIC COAST LET THEIR GUARDS DOWN.  AT THIS POINT IN TIME THAT WOULD BE A VERY SERIOUS MISTAKE.,

This is no storm to take lightly.  It is potentially lethal to more than just a few people and places.  So I am pleading with those of you in an area where this storm might move – please keep a close watch and as I’ve said before, have a plan.  You do not want to be in this one if its bite is as impressive as its bark (and it’s echo).  Don’t let complacency rule.  If you suffer from that disease that seems to be epidemic in our country today, terminal uniqueness, please don’t be too crafty for your own good.  Please listen to the experts – ignore me if you choose – but listen to them.  At the very least I recommend that you pay attention to the Weather Channel, the National Hurricane Center and the WeatherUnderground tropical pages.  Moments ago I added a link on this page to the latter.  Don’t perceive the forecast plot to be a line or an arc.  Heed the “cone of uncertainty.”  This hurricane could pull some tracking surprises but he’s likely to be very strong no matter where he goes.

I may add one more post before calling it a night.  If I do it will be a short hurricane Andrew story.

LEFT CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

If you would like to examine the site from which the graphic above was derived, and also the ECMWF and a few other models, use this link:     http://tc.met.psu.edu/