IDA FORECAST – 11-8-09

Some of the information on this site is published close to “real-time”  particularly as it applies to tropical weather.  But it is important to remember that the only “official” source of information is the National Hurricane Center. Decisions concerning life or death, property, and such should not be made based solely on the information found on this site or any other sites that are recommended here. unless they are official. Listen to your local authorities when conditions are life-threatening or there is possible loss of property.

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THE ENTIRE FIRST PARAGRAPH THAT FOLLOWS  IS A DIRECT QUOTE FROM DR. JEFF MASTERS (PICTURED BELOW) THAT WAS CUT AND PASTED FROM HIS WEATHER UNDERGROUND SITE; DR. MASTERS IS MY MOST RELIABLE AND DEPENDABLE SOURCE WHEN IT COMES TO TROPICAL WEATHER; HE IS A DEDICATED ‘WINNER:”  ONE REASON WHY I DEPEND SO HEAVILY UPON HIS WORK IS THAT HE IS NOT OPERATING UNDER THE CONSTRAINTS OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTER BUT HE BENEFITS FROM THEIR INTERPRETATIONS AS WELL AS FROM OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RESOURCES.  HE IS DEDICATED, “UP FRONT,” AND RESPONSIBLE.

Dr. Jeff Masters

The forecast for Ida -

Posted: 10:21 AM EST on November 08, 2009

“The high wind shear of 20 – 25 knots currently affecting Ida is forecast to persist at that level until Monday night. Some slow intensification is still possible while Ida remains over the exceptionally warm water of the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico, through tonight (Figure 2). Late tonight, Ida will be crossing over waters of 26°C, which is barely enough to support a hurricane. With shear still expected to be at 20 -25 knots, I expect weakening to begin early Monday morning and accelerate on Monday afternoon. At that time, Ida will encounter 40 knots of wind shear associated with a cold front over the Gulf of Mexico, and begin transitioning to an extratropical storm. Exactly how strong Ida will be when it reaches the coast early Tuesday morning–and indeed if Ida even does reach the coast–is a forecast with high uncertainty. The computer models have a tough time forecasting the evolution of a tropical cyclone into an extratropical cyclone, and the models are all over the place on what will happen. Most of the models foresee a landfall near 1 am EST Tuesday between Mississippi and Pensacola, Florida, then a path northeastward over the Southeast U.S. However, Ida could come to halt before reaching the coast and turn west towards Tampa (the UKMET model’s forecast), or turn south back over the Gulf of Mexico (the NOGAPS model’s forecast). In any case, storm surge and heavy rain appear to be the main hazards from Ida. The GFDL model (Figure 3) is forecasting rain amounts of 4 – 8 inches for a large swath of the Gulf Coast, and there is a risk of tornadoes if the warm air from the core of Ida pushes ashore.”  END QUOTE

From my point of view, (this is Cloudman23 writing) everyone on the Gulf Coast  from Mississippi to Key West should have a “heads up” mindset while Ida is out there.  As Dr. Masters said, the computer models have a difficult time when the tropical to extratropical metamorphoses takes place.  Furthermore, the chance of tornadoes (mentioned by Dr. Masters) in association with warm, moist air from Ida and its inherent instability in such situations, this storm should not be taken lightly.

IDA MODEL FORECASTS – 11-6-09

Thanks to the very fine work by Jonathan Vigh of the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University I am able to provide you this morning’s model forecasts for Ida.  Left click to enlarge image.

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A Tropical Wave Worth Watching Has Formed

-left click twice to enlarge this TIME SENSITIVE image -

The chart above, acquired from the tropical page of Weather Underground at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ shows computer model “notions” of the future path of Investigation 91 which currently has the status of a tropical wave.  The wave (or tropical disturbance) is currently showing no signs of cyclonic circulation.  When, or if, if does it will become a tropical depression.

The red pathway is from the GFS image.  This is the one I’m tending to value the most in this specific case since the GFDL does not take it far enough.  In any case, it is believed that the leading half of an anticyclone moving from the west toward the east will prevent the system from continuing its rightward turning and will eventually cause it to move generally toward the west.

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Jimena and Erika

During the next few months I will be on line only intermittently.  For quick indicators about tropical weather systems I recommend the Weather Channel if you have cable and also the Masters’ Blog at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

The Masters’ Blog link is usually at the upper part of the page on the right hand side.

Please remember if you are in tropical weather territory – it doesn’t always happen to the “other guy.”  And, though landfall events have not been abundant this season, 1992 was also an El Nino season with a slow start and only one hurricane made landfall upon the U.S. coast that year.  ANDREW!  My point?  “All it takes is one!”  I beg you to be prepared – even if you are far from the coast because the effects of a tropical weather system can be devastating many miles from where it makes landfall.

Here are the current potential pathway advisories on Jimena and Erika.

Left click the image in order to enlarge. In some

instances a second left click will enlarge even further.

ANA, BILL, AND CLAUDETTE!

To have this current explosion of activity in the Gulf and Atlantic after so many quiet weeks is a real attention-getter.  Most recently, a tropical system off the Florida panhandle has developed into a tropical storm.  In the meantime Ana and Bill out in the Atlantic are both commanding attention.

Tropical systems are not all bad, particularly when the wind velocities are not too high and this is because they can provide much needed precipitation.  Let’s hope that these three systems prove to be more of an advantage than anything else.  So many people are reminded of Andrew in 1992, another year in which El Nino was a  factor.  Andrew was the only hurricane to make landfall in the U.S.A. that season but he was a whopper and there are many people yet today who will testify that it changed their lives – myself included.

I am likely to be inactive on this site for the next few days for two reasons.  My laptop is behaving badly and either needs some serious attention (like a new hard drive) or I need to bite the bullet and get another machine.  Also – I will be traveling.  For those of you who know me – don’t be alarmed.  The traveling has nothing to do with the current tropical weather activity.

In the meantime if you want to stay on top of things weatherwise I recommend the Weather Channel if you have cable and also the Masters’ Blog at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

The Masters’ Blog link is usually at the upper part of the page on the right hand side.

Peace be with you!

tat

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Hurricane Outlook for August 2009

Notice the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone

to the north of the Equator this time of year.

Left clicks should enlarge this image for you.

Dr. Jeff Masters is my primary source for hurricane information.  His is a hard act to follow.  Therefore, I refer you to his “August Hurricane Outlook” discussion released on August 1, 2009.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1267

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The Hurricane Season of 2009 Has Begun!

MOST IMAGES ON THIS WEBLOG ENLARGE WITH LEFT CLICKS

This image shows no tropical activity 15 minutes into our 2009 season (not surprisingly) but you can clearly see the clouds development with a stationary front cutting diagonally across the image.

The Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean hurricane season “officially” begins on June 1.  The fact that Tropical Depression 1 formed about 4 days before the official season’s beginning is not an indication of an active hurricane season this year.  There seems to be no relationship between early activity and the “busyness” of that season.  In fact, there is a real possibility that an El Niño event will be strong during what we consider the peak activity period of our season (the approximate middle of the 6 month long period).  Eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures have been rising steadily for the last several months pointing to the El Niño possibility.  That means is that our 2009 season might be less active than usual if the ENSO comes to fruition.  ENSO = El Niño Southern Oscillation.  BUT, even if a strong El Niño develops it is no time to let down one’s guard if living in “hurricane country.”  1992 was an El Niño year and that was when Andrew occurred.  My house in Homestead was a total loss.

I was extremely well prepared back then (August 24, 1992) but hurricane Andrew slammed in as a category 5.  However, we did have a plan and it worked to the degree that no one in my family was physically hurt.  Only one window had a small crack but – the roof failed and the damage was almost beyond belief for us.  Since Andrew was a relatively dry storm our windows holding firm did make it so that we were able to salvage some valuable items afterwards because the wind did not gut the house.

We stayed in the community and helped rebuild.  We had great insurance and our house was reconstructed in one year to a higher standard.  During that time we four lived in a 25’ travel trailer that I purchased for that purpose but kept for several years afterwards to use for recreational and educational travel.

If you live in “hurricane country” then you have choices.  Some of us have more choices than others but you should at least have a plan that is clearly articulated to and understood by each member of your household.  Shall you be well prepared or do you choose to become a potential victim who is dependent upon others almost immediately after a storm?

I urge you to follow to the best of your ability those preparation suggestions made by your local and federal agencies.  Some of us are more fortunate than others in what we are able to do to protect our dwellings – that is, those of us who are lucky enough to have a place we call home.

In my new post-retirement community and in neighboring communities (Citrus and neighboring counties)  I see what I consider to be real paradoxes or, at the very least, some irony.  I’m reminded (but to a somewhat lesser degree) of one of my Homestead neighbors who drove a Mercedes while his wife drove a BMW; they owned a very large boat moored at a dock in nearby Biscayne Bay, an ultra-light aircraft and a twin Cessna – yet they had no window protection of any sort for their home.  I speculate that it was not a matter of the cost of such protection but more a matter of priorities and life style with perhaps a little measure of denial thrown in.

Some people in my part of Florida feel that by being inland they have some sort of immunity to the ravages of hurricanes.  Yes – it is an advantage being inland, especially if on high ground but it does not offer any guarantees.  Most deaths in hurricanes (on the average) are due to high water and being away from the storm surge zones and areas prone to flooding from the storm’s downpours makes for a safer situation – generally speaking.  But, high winds can play havoc particularly when items become projectiles in the wind.  It is a fact that if the wind velocity doubles, the force it exerts upon a surface it is striking at right angles quadruples!  People in my part of Florida experienced a lot of activity if they were here in 2004 but the wind velocities were luckily relatively low.  Only modestly higher wind velocities would have produced exponentially greater force and far greater damage.  Furthermore, tornadoes and microbursts occur within hurricane bands and neither have a preference for locations near the coast.

Come early August we will have been in our new home for four years.  Our first major purchase when moving in was window and door storm protection.  We had tended to that “need” before we were even set up with a cable connection for our televisions and computers.  For the first two years that we were here I participated in a number of hurricane expos as the “hurricane resource person” on site.  There were expo participants who were in the business of selling, fabricating, and installing storm protection to homes and businesses.  Most visitors were there to learn about hurricane safety and hurricane protection.  But one particular type of visitor seemed to come to these expos in order to exercise their debate skills on the pros and cons of storm protection for windows and doors.  I was amazed at times by the level of denial and warped rationalization that I witnessed.  Some argued that they refused to concern themselves with such matters and would just let their insurance take care of it for them.  There was little if any consideration for how they would deal with losses of personal items, safety issues if they were not to evacuate, safety issues if they were to evacuate, where they would go if they did evacuate in time, and how they would handle matters when they returned if things were torn all to hell!  I am convinced that some of the men I talked to felt that it was a manly thing to face a storm raw without preparation – even though in some case it meant leaving their house mates far more vulnerable than necessary.  To my mind, they had it backwards  – a real man takes care of his own and is available to help others as well.

I can testify, by experience, that the trauma of a storm itself often does not compare to the trauma of the immediate aftermath and rebuilding.  Looting, for example and other forms of predatory behavior can occur.  In heavily damaged areas the majority of those who come to help are good people with good intentions but there is one whole class of “helpers” who are there to take victims for a ride they will never forget.  In South Dade County, where Andrew first struck the U.S.A. the divorce rate just about doubled for the next few years.  Stress and anxiety were on a very high level.

So – please think in terms of the big picture when a hurricane visits – not simply the weather event itself.  Think in terms of what you’ll do if you lose electricity for several days and how you will fare food-wise if you need to go for a week or more without provisions and how you’ll communicate.  Cell phones go out of commission when the transmission and relay towers are damaged.  Then there are the special needs people who absolutely must make arrangements for care in the event of a serious storm.

Please be prepared to the best of your ability.  If you later consider all of that planning and work to be for naught because no hurricane occurs in your region – there will be more seasons to follow for which you will again be ready and if, near the end of the season, you have a box full of “emergency food” there are surely some places near where you live to donate it to the needy.  After all, the end of the official hurricane season (November 30) and Thanksgiving (November 26) are pretty darned close to each other.

Here is this season’s list of names; tropical cyclonic systems will receive names in order from this list once they reach tropical storm intensity; tropical storm sustained winds fall in the range of 39 mph to 73 mph; of course they retain their names if they become hurricanes (74 mph or more):

Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

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A HINT OF ADIABATICS – IT’S A GAS!

Friday, 11-21-2008

Several years ago this bag of corn chips was purchased somewhere in Southern California.  Shortly afterwards one of my two former students hiking the Mt. Whitney trail with me pulled it out of his backpack when we were taking a break at the 11,395′ benchmark near Consultation Lake.  Adam and Carl were game hikers and a joy to be with.  I’ve lost track of Adam but Carl (Opper) is an earth science professor at St. Petersburg College.  He makes me proud.

I must admit that right now I have a problem with this image:

IT ACCURATELY DEPICTS

HOW MY ABDOMEN FEELS THIS EVENING!

That strange statement will be explained in a moment.

Of course the reason why the bag is near bursting is because the atmospheric pressure upon it is so much less than it was where it was packaged and sealed.  The image also illustrates that when air rises, it expands.  Interestingly, the “heat” within the air inside the bag is spread out over a greater volume due to the expansion.  Therefore, were it measured, one would find the temperature of the air at any point inside the bag to be colder than it was at the beginning of the hike.  But, the amount of heat inside the bag would be essentially the same as at the beginning of the hike, except for the small amount lost due to radiation cooling of the bag’s surface.

Did you catch that?  When air rises and expands the temperature changes but the amount of heat remains essentially the same.  I was reminded many times during my years of teaching that many people do not discriminate between the word, heat and the word, temperature.  The fact is, they do not mean the same thing.  For example, it takes a lot more heat to increase a gallon of room temperature water up to boiling than to increase a quart of room temperature water up to boiling – though the temperatures of each once the heating was accomplished would be the same at boiling.

When unsaturated air rises, its temperature drops at a rate of about 1degree C. per 100 meters of ascent!  When saturated air rises its temperature drops at a rate of about 0.6 degrees C. per 100 meters.  The reduction (retardation) is due to the fact that when saturated air is rising and being further cooled by expansion – condensation occurs which releases heat; the heat released slows down the rate of expansion cooling.

This is the crux of adiabatic cooling, a subject which will come up sooner or later at this site (as well as adiabatic heating).  NOW: Back to the strange comment about my abdomen.

Even before we returned to our Florida home from our month-long stay at our mountain cabin I knew that something inside my lower abdomen was not quite right.  After getting back to Florida I investigated on-line and correctly reached the conclusion that I had a hernia.  The surgeon found a second one when he examined me.  I had surgery that took a little over two hours early in the afternoon on Monday.  The surgeon found a third hernia while he was in there looking around with his magic wand, the laparoscope.

All went well.  The surgery was done on an out-patient basis.  That’s not a complaint.  Once my head hit the pillow at home I felt very tired but I was not sleepy!  I was so relieved that I jabbered off and on all night long.  My poor wife!  Perhaps the medication played a role in that.

The surgery is the main reason for my inactivity on line – that plus the fact that there is no tropical weather going on right now, being near the end of the official season.  I’ve read that it’s over but my feeling always at this time of year is, “It ain’t over ’til it’s over!” spoken first (I think) by the great living sage, Yogi Berra.  Out-of- season storms have occurred though such events are relatively rare.  Here are two examples:

1) Hurricane Alice formed at 1 A.M. EST December 30, 1954 and continued as a hurricane into January 6, 1955.  Here’s a plot.

http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-alice-1954

2) A hurricane formed on March 6, 1908.  It is called both “The March, 1908 Hurricane” and “1908 Hurricane #1.”  Here’s a plot.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1908/1/track.gif

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HURRICANE MISCONCEPTIONS – A LIST OF 23

Image source of Ike radar loop = Weather Underground

LEFT CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE AND SEE A RADAR LOOP OF IKE AS HE COMES INTO VIEW AND EVENTUALLY MAKES LANDFALL.  WATCH FOR A DISTINCT RIGHT TURN TRACKING DIRECTLY TOWARD HOUSTON JUST BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.  IF IT HAD CONTINUED STRAIGHT, THE WINDS AND THE SURGE ALONG THE COAST AT GALVESTON AND SOUTHWESTWARD WOULD HAVE BEEN EVEN WORSE BECAUSE THAT COAST WOULD HAVE BEEN CROSSED BY THE RIGHT-HAND LEADING QUADRANT OF THE STORM

(see item 13 below).

23 COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT HURRICANES

©* Tonie Ansel Toney (see conditions for copying at the end)

http://cloudman23.wordpress.com/

I have learned of these misconceptions by communicating through the years with my students, friends, neighbors, attendees of some of the hurricane seminars that I have conducted and visitors to hurricane expos where I have given presentations.  Most of this occurred in Florida.  I learned that these items have been relatively “common” misconceptions through informal pre-tests I have given to college students at the beginning of certain semesters, answers to questions I have asked in classes during the course of myriad semesters, through conversations with people of all walks of life (and a broad range of ages and experience), and by listening carefully.

ALL 23 UPPER CASE STATEMENTS ARE FALSE IN SOME WAY.  BRIEF EXPLANATIONS FOLLOW.

1. IF THE SPEED OF WIND BLOWING DIRECTLY INTO THE SIDE OF A DWELLING CHANGES FROM 40 MPH TO 80 MPH, THE FORCE THAT IT EXERTS INTO THE STRUCTURE WILL INCREASE TO TWICE WHAT IT WAS. THE TRUTH: A doubling of the velocity will cause a four-fold increase of the force upon a surface being struck at right angles.  The relationship is “exponential,” not “linear.”

2. IF, DURING A HURRICANE, YOUR TRUE WIND DIRECTION IS FROM THE SOUTH, THE HURRICANE’S EYE IS TO THE NORTH OF YOU. THE TRUTH:  It is generally west of you.  Hurricane winds move approximately parallel to (or concentric with) the nearly circular eye-wall.  A good rule-of-thumb for eye location (in the Northern Hemisphere) is: Imagine standing with the wind at your back.  Extend your left arm out from your side and your hand will be pointing toward the eye.

3. IF AN APPROACHING HURRICANE IS ABOUT ONE DAY AWAY, PRUNING OF TREES IS ADVISABLE. THE TRUTH:  It is too late to prune at that time – it should have been done much sooner, preferably prior to the hurricane season.  Pruned material must be disposed of properly – if lying around the items can become a dangerous airborne hazards.

Tropical Wave In Eastern Caribbean

“Plot below is provided courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University. For more information about the graphic, click here.”

FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

1. A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.  THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

===============================

Well, it’s time.  More tropical activity is inevitable. Yes – the official hurricane season for the northern hemisphere Atlantic, the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico is 6 months long. It begins on June 1.  That means that we must wait until the beginning of December in order to realize that at least officially, it’s over for another 6 months.  For many of us, it goes with the territory.  Environmental hazards and/or natural disasters are but a few things many of us must face, sooner or later.

I remember so clearly, after Andrew, how grateful I was and how often I expressed that gratitude.  I suspect that those closest to me got a bit tired of hearing the same old – same old out of me.  But I was (and am) sincere.  At least we were unhurt – at least we had good insurance – at least I could swing the cost of a travel trailer to put in the driveway while the house was being rebuilt, at least I had a job and, at that time, an understanding employer.  The paychecks did not stop, though absenteeism was high, we were told to take care of our personal matters first.  The length of that Autumn term at the college where I taught was shortened. I seriously doubt that my former employer would be so kind today – the management is far different now.

Whether it’s hurricanes, earthquakes, wild fires, mass wasting (e.g. landslide), tsunamis, floods, heat waves, etc., a multitude of hazards exist out there for we humans to contend with – some which we enhance because of the way we have altered our natural environment.  In time, I will no doubt speak of each of those and others in this web-log. However, I’m not well informed about (nor do I pretend to understand) what I perceive to be the most dangerous of hazards – namely – many, if not most, humans.  One need not study or observe too long or hard to learn that we can be our own worst enemies (individually and as a species).