HURRICANE PALOMA IS HEADING FOR CUBA

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Paloma is now a “high-end” category 1 hurricane and continues to strengthen.  The greatest concerns throughout the Caymans are high winds – storm surge concerns are not as pressing.  Jamaica is expected to get only fringe winds.  Paloma is expected to continue toward the northeast, travel across Cuba and into the Bahamas.

Those of you who have studied the circulation of air with tropical cyclonic systems can probably “see” in the satellite image above both inflow and outflow cloud patterns.  For those who are not familiar with the difference between the two I am including an image below of hurricane Ike on September 9, 2008.  He is centered just offshore of northwest Cuba.  I have drawn air flow arrows to show the cyclonic inflow (red) and the flow that occurs aloft, anticyclonic outflow (blue).

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Inflow consists of the harder-edged clouds with sharp contrast – Outflow consists of the more diffuse cirrus and cirrostratus of the upper layer.

Cement Structure No Match For Ike – Update

I posted an item on Sept. 21, 2008 about the elevated structure with cement block exterior walls at the upper level (pictured at the very end of this entry).  That original post is still contained in this web-log.  In this post that you are now reading, I am adding additional comments in “blue” to get you (and me) up to date.  This has gone back and forth and I hope the identity of the building and the stated design of the block walls is correct.  It worries me because anyone in there could have been seriously injured or worse from collapsing cement blocks.  This first photograph is of a cement block structure In the Naranja Lakes Condominium Development near Homestead, Florida.  In this particular structure there was a fatality due to poured concrete headers and blocks coming down upon a resident huddled inside – a real tragedy.  There were at least 3 such fatalities in that neighborhood; it’s amazing that there were not more. TWO INDEPENDENT LEFT CLICKS SHOULD ENLARGE THIS IMAGE A GREAT DEAL.

This next paragraph reflects that I had already made a previous change in the original entry.

It is my understanding that the structure (pictured below) belongs to a yacht club. A reader wrote in after I originally posted this because I had misidentified it as the Houston Yacht Club.  However, he indicated that the Houston Yacht Club is “a three story coral colored structure and while some water entered the first floor it is essentially undamaged.”  You can check out his comment.

Since then, a couple of readers have identified the building as belonging to the Seabrook Sailing Club just north of the Clear Creek channel.  “Kent” adds, “The cinder-block wash-away walls collapsed as designed, leaving the shell structure intact. It was originally built after Hurricane Carla in the early 1960s. Hurricane Alicia did a similar number on the building in 1983. I think the club is trying to decide if they should rebuild on the current shell or scrap it.”  End quote.

Though this building is elevated and held fast on its foundation, the surge was too high and the waves too forceful for the cement block.  I don’t believe this damage can be attributed directly to wind force but rather, the surge with its waves on top.  For those of you who have felt the pounding of moderate surf against your body – imagine what this cement block must have endured before yielding.  I see wires and perhaps some straps but I see no evidence of corefill in the block nor do I see very much rebar reinforcement in the image.  At the time that I wrote this I had no idea that upper level walls were deliberately built to wash away.  If this is true, so much for the contents and/or anyone who might have been unable to get out because they waited too long.  On the other hand, maybe it was just used for storage.  I had heard of “break-away” lower level walls.  In fact I have a friend who built a pole house with that design. For quick information rebar and poured concrete reinforcement read the second paragraph in the following link and click on the photo on the bottom right.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cinder_block

Please visit the rest of this web-log go to “blog” at the top of this page or click here.  http://cloudman23.wordpress.com/.  If you are interested in weather, there are some tutorials scattered about and more will be added in time.

Cement Block Structure No Match for Ike

It is my understanding that this structure (below) belongs to a yacht club. A reader wrote in after I originally posted this because I had misidentified it as the Houston Yacht Club.  However, he indicated that the Houston Yacht Club is “a three story coral colored structure and while some water entered the first floor it is essentially undamaged.”  You can check out his comment.

Though this building is elevated and held fast on its foundation, the surge was too high and the waves too forceful for the cement block.  I don’t believe this damage can be attributed directly to wind force but rather, the surge with its waves on top.  For those of you who have felt the pounding of moderate surf against your body – imagine what this cement block must have endured before yielding.  I see wires and perhaps some straps but I see no evidence of corefill in the block nor do I see very much rebar reinforcement in the image.  For quick information on that type of reinforcement read the second paragraph in the following link and click on the photo on the bottom right.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cinder_block

A footnote for my regular readers:  You can check for yourself but it looks according to the models as though the tropical disturbance addressed in the previous post is going to move northward.  Still, I fear for those in Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.  The rains are something they don’t need right now.

Please visit the rest of this web-log at http://cloudman23.wordpress.com/.  If you are interested in weather, there are some tutorials scattered about and more will be added in time.

GALVESTON – MOST RECENT NHC WEATHER STATEMENT – TIME SENSITIVE

LETS HOPE IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS AFTER IKE IS GONE!

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HERE ARE LINKS TO TWO REPORT ON

MOODY GARDENS AFTER IKE:

http://www.2theadvocate.com/entertainment/travel/vacation/43633272.html

http://www.beloblog.com/KHOU_newgirl/2008/10/my-penguin-friends-at-moody-ga.html

What follows is the complete 8:19 PM Central Daylight Time statement from the Galveston Office of the National Hurricane Center.  This was for immediate broadcast.  It is very long.  I am posting the entire statement for the benefit of those who know details of the following areas from having lived there or having family and/or friends there.  This addresses the following counties:  BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA.

Warning From Galveston Office of the Hurricane Center – 4:19 pm CDT, Sept. 11, 2008

Above I have posted an image showing all of the hurricanes and tropical storms that have come within 50 statute miles of Houston, Texas from 1928 through 2007.  Many verified events occurred before 1928, including the most infamous 1900 Galveston hurricane.  LEFT CLICKING ON THE IMAGE WILL ENLARGE IT.  I prepared this chart using a program with a menu whereby I could select the city and pick the time frame.  For your information, Galveston is 45.2 statute miles from the center of Houston (as the crow flies).

It illustrates that those cities are indeed in hurricane territory and that no one should be surprised that a storm such as Ike is now threatening them (and others).   Just as it is where I live in Florida, it goes with the territory.  People who live in that coastal area should not be reading this now unless they have gotten out of there.  If you are currently somewhere else along the Texas and West Louisiana coast, please be prepared to seek higher ground inland.  My opinion is that the sooner you make a move, the better.  Why risk it?  Of course there are hazards involved in evacuating too and you must be sober, wide awake, and thus alert.

Though I expect this to be renewed/revised soon, here is an EXCERPT from the most recent official statement by the Galveston office of the National Hurricane Center:

Statement as of 4:19 PM CDT on September 11, 2008

… Storm surge and storm tide…

Tide levels will begin rising Friday morning and will exceed
5 feet above mean lower low water along the Upper Texas coast and
along the shorelines of the bays by mid to late morning Friday.
Water levels will rise rapidly beginning late afternoon Friday as
the storm surge moves in with water levels peaking Friday night
and early Saturday. Maximum storm tide levels are highly dependent
on the track of the storm and variations in the track of only 15
miles can make differences of several feet more or less from some
of these values.

Maximum water levels forecast:

Gulf-facing coastline west of Sargent… 5 to 8 feet

Shoreline of Matagorda Bay… 5 to 8 feet

Gulf-facing coastline Sargent to High Island
including Galveston Island… … 12 to 16 feet

Shoreline of Galveston Bay… 15 to 22 feet

Life threatening inundation likely!

All neighborhoods… and possibly entire coastal communities…
will be inundated during the period of peak storm tide. Persons
not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story
homes will face certain death. Many residences of average
construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread
and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere.
Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads
will be swamped… some may be washed away by the water. Entire
flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may
exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in
multi-story facilities risk being cutoff. Conditions will be
worsened by battering waves. Such waves will exacerbate property
damage… with massive destruction of homes… including those of
block construction. Damage from beach erosion could take years to
repair.