DISCLAIMER: Some of the information on this site is published close to “real-time” particularly as it applies to tropical weather; so – check the posting date carefully. It is important to remember that this web-log is not an “official” source of environmental information. Please do not make any decisions based solely on the information found on this site or any other sites that are recommended here – unless they are official. Listen to your local authorities when conditions are life-threatening or there might be loss of (or damage to) property.
Caution – I often leave “dated” posts available because of certain potential tutorial value. I apologize if this causes you any inconvenience. Also, I do not recommend this site for comprehensive coverage of weather. There are times when I do not address significant storms. Above all, do not consider me to be an authority.
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THIS IS A VERY “TIME-SENSITIVE” REPORT
After viewing the graphic below my concerns for the residents of Tallahassee have increased; of course it goes without saying that my concerns are for everyone who might have to deal with this storm – no matter where they might be located. Mainly, there are three factors involved in my concern for the 7th most highly populated city in Florida and its capital city. One is that there is a strong chance that Hermine will become a hurricane before reaching the Florida coast.
Another: The minimum distance from Gulf of Mexico waters to Tallahassee is about 25 miles. One might consider 25 miles to be an adequate “buffer” to provide friction and thus slow down the winds approaching the city. I think that assumption would be a mistake. Furthermore, when surface or near-surface winds leave the water for land the slight slowing that might occur would tend to cause more air to rise. A similar rising is what causes lake effect snows in certain Great Lakes coastal or near-coastal downwind locations. In the case of humid winds from Hermine possibly decelerating due to friction over the land when approaching Tallahassee, the net effect could very well be more vertical cloud development (due to a greater amount of rising air) than would have occurred otherwise. This phenomenon can intensify thunderstorms, the gusts that spill out from them, and the chaos that can generate tornadoes. The increase in rainfall amounts can be dramatic. So – be careful what you wish for. Flooding is typically a bigger issue than the wind velocities in these cases.
Here is the third cause for my concern: The graphic below from the National Weather Service showing the “cone of uncertainty” (8 PM EST, 8-31-2016) causes me to consider that Tallahassee might very well be under the right-hand leading quadrant of the storm when it makes landfall. The right-hand leading quadrants of tropical cyclonic systems are usually the quadrants with the highest wind velocities, greatest probability for tornadoes, heaviest rains, and in coastal areas the greatest storm surge height. The fact that currently the whole storm is beginning to move faster can increase the danger of the right-hand leading quadrant.
I urge residents of the Tallahassee area to be alert during the approach, passage, and departure of what is now Tropical Storm Hermine. Do not take it lightly just because it is on the low side of the tropical storm wind velocity range at this time (evening of 8-31-2016).
CLICK ON THE IMAGE BELOW TO ENLARGE.
CLICK ON THE IMAGE ABOVE TO ENLARGE.
Compare this to the previous posting which was 24 hours earlier and you will see some change in the tracking model forecasts – which is to be expected.
I have greatest confidence in the TVCA run which is a consensus of 5 other models which have been good performers over the last few years. Generally, the TVCA model is very close to the National Hurricane Center’s “official” track that is the basis for the “uncertainty” cones released to the public. If you are one to pay attention to which models get mentioned or shown in weather reports you have surely heard of the “European model” which is labeled ECMWF. You won’t find it on these spaghetti illustrations; Data from this model is restricted from being redistributed according to international agreement. However, the National Weather Service official track runs very close to being the same as the ECMWF. The BAMM and related models are still useful for long term runs but in this case I think you can pretty much ignore them (the ones that run off toward the west).
Suppose you lived along the Nature Coast of Florida, (e.g. Citrus County) then you might feel that you have nothing to be concerned about because the tracks seem to be shifting northward. But please remember, these tracks are merely forecasting the storm’s center. In most cases the strongest winds are at the right hand, leading quadrant of such storms, which, in this case might cause Citrus County some concerns.
Please be sure to click on the graphic for enlargement.
REMINDER: THIS IS A TIME-SENSITIVE REPORT
As of late this afternoon, 8-29-2016, Invest 99L has strengthened to a tropical depression. For up-to-date information on the system, I recommend Dr. Jeff Masters’ weblog (blog). See link below:
Go to the top of the page and click on News & Blogs.
As of the time of this writing, Dr. Masters expresses reasonable confidence that the system will track in such a way that a landfall will occur somewhere in the Florida coast north of Tampa. I urge all interested persons to pay close attention to Dr. Masters’ postings, the Weather Channel tropical reports, and your local news.
Here is the most recent version from my favorite spaghetti chart source, the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado (CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE):
Enlarge images in this posting with left clicks.
ILLUSTRATION B – map of Citrus County showing locations of the Gulf Coastal Lowlands which are subject to storm surges, the sandy Brooksville Ridge occupying more than one-third of the area, and the Tsala Apopka Plain containing the majority of the county’s fresh water lakes –
– TWO INDEPENDENT LEFT CLICKS ENLARGE THE IMAGE ABOVE TO THE FULLEST –
I Am Very Happy Living In Citrus County.
Of course, being retired, being a nature-lover and being relatively healthy helps. All locations have pros and cons but with respect to the latter I have yet to regret the move with my extended family 9 years ago. We had experienced hurricanes and tropical storms through the years. Our house was a total loss in 1992’s category 5 hurricane Andrew; it was at ground zero in Homestead which is located 27.6 miles (as the crow flies) southwest of Miami. The house belonging to my wife’s folks, less than a mile away, had extensive damage. What a terrible mess was caused by the only hurricane to make landfall upon the U.S.A. that season. But when we moved to Citrus County 13 years later we were conscious of the fact that by leaving South Florida we had NOT left “hurricane country.” I felt that Citrus County would be safer in that respect but certainly not a hurricane-proof location. It didn’t take long for me to meet people who felt that there was something special about Citrus and other nearby counties that made a serious hurricane event almost inconceivable.
Complacency is a real problem in hurricane country. I don’t claim to be an expert on complacency but there have been times in my life where I might have contracted the disorder I call “terminal uniqueness.” Therefore, I am acquainted with denial, ignorance, procrastination, irresponsibility, and “living in a dream world” because I’ve been there; for all I know, I’m there still. I believe that every time I point a finger at someone, three are pointing back at me and this is written in that spirit. Thus, I’m not trying to indict anyone here; I’m just trying to state what appears to me to be true.
As I see it – Citrus County, as a whole, though probably not the “geographical poster child” for complacency when it comes to hurricanes and tropical storms, seems to be after the title – in spite of its experience with “The Florida Four in 2004” (see illustration C below). I’m not speaking of those who vigorously engage in emergency planning and increasing awareness in the community. And of course I’m not speaking to residents reading this who have engaged in effective advanced planning and preparation. No, I’m speaking of the average Jack and/or Jill occupying a dwelling in Citrus County; I acknowledge that there are plenty of exceptions. To be sure – this is not a problem exclusive to Citrus County. I believe it’s prevalent in all or nearly all parts of the country susceptible to tropical cyclonic weather. Please click on this graphic below for enlargement.
The four 2004 storm tracks above are dated for your convenience. For example: Tropical storm Bonnie’s track runs from August 3rd to August 14.
NOTE: For an infrared satellite loop of the majority of the 2004 season, click on the first link below. Date and time indicators appear along the bottom margin. Then for an animated loop which is easier to interpret click on the second link.
I moved to Florida in 1956 during my high school junior year and I don’t remember a time since when I have not been conscious of the potential for tropical weather to wreak havoc upon lives and property and I have always tried to be prepared. If you were to have simply driven by my house you could have observed elements of hurricane preparedness. That is still true today. It is a high priority item in my family. I have been an active advocate of hurricane awareness and preparation for many years. If anything, I hope that illustrations in this weblog posting will increase awareness at least among the few who see it. So let me call your attention to the illustration below. Most residents who see such illustrations are, at the very least, surprised. Naturally some point out that this covers a long period of time. But really, is 161 years a long time in the whole scheme of things? My point in showing this is: TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE A REALITY IN CITRUS COUNTY. Also, please be aware of the fact that the plot lines show the paths of the centers of storms and that the storms have a width that is not apparent here. The center of a storm does not have to come within just a few miles for it to be of great concern; the center can be many miles away.
Even before leaving Homestead for good in 2005 – while visiting Citrus County I detected the existence of a notion of immunity to any sort of serious tropical cyclonic weather (e.g. hurricanes, tropical storms). Though I have no scientific evidence to back this – I classify the “no-need-to-be-concerned” feeling as widespread among the Citrus County population. In fact, sometimes “low-to-no” hurricane probability has been drastically overstated here (I’ve heard it and I’ve heard about it). It seems that “The Florida Four in 2004 ” did very little to squelch the delusion. Still – I would have expected that particular season to have provided a huge “wake up call.”
NOTE: The “official” Florida Four in 2004 includes hurricane Charley which struck Punta Gorda on August 13 and later moved through South Carolina. It does not include tropical storm Bonnie.
Just a few weeks ago I overheard a hostess at a popular restaurant in adjacent Marion County telling a booth full of patrons, “We just don’t get hurricanes here.” Recently a friend of mine suggested that there was something about our county’s geography, specifically the Brooksville Ridge, that prevented hurricane visits. That reminded me of Muncie, Indiana where I used to live; it is alleged to be immune from tornadoes because of a particular bend in the river flowing through it. Also, a protective blessing from an Indian chief has been cited.
“The Florida Four in 2004” did not produce the extent of damage or flooding that raised eyebrows all over the nation and, for now, a sense of security from lethal storms seems to cling on. This is not a prediction nor is it my wish, but I do fear that a hurricane coming through this area has the potential to surprise a lot of people and make them wonder what they were thinking. And such an event could be deadly and most certainly destructive.
Storm Surge Potential
When I was looking for property in Citrus County one of my big concerns was the encroachment of wind-driven sea water with a storm – the so-called storm surge. Upon investigation I found what I expected – that if it was important to me personally to avoid surge potential I should avoid about one-third of the county’s land area – the western third.
NOTE: Illustration B, “map of Citrus County” might be useful to you here.
Most of that western third is undeveloped but there are two noteworthy communities within it, Homosassa and most of Crystal River. Therefore, early on I decided not to settle on the Gulf Coastal Lowlands but instead chose the Brooksville Ridge. In my opinion, the broad, hilly, sandy ridge is, by far, the safest place for a home or business in the county because of it’s higher elevations and greater ability to handle large amounts of precipitation often associated with a storm. The highest point in the county is within the Citrus Hills Golf Course above a 230′ contour – my Google Earth measurement has it at 235 feet.
ILLUSTRATION E – Storm surge portion of Citrus County, the western third (color-coded). T = tropical storm and the numbers represent hurricane categories. Left click to enlarge or go to the next illustration for more detail.
FOR STORM SURGE ZOOM CAPABILITIES, click on this link:
To be fair, Citrus county seems not to have been visited by category 5 or 4 hurricanes though at nearby Cedar Key a 1896 hurricane was a category 4 according to some estimates – crediting it with 135 mph winds.
NOTE: As far as we know, only three Category 5 storms have struck the U.S.A. – the 1935 Florida Keys or Labor Day hurricane, Hurricane Camille which hit Mississippi in 1969, and 1992’s Hurricane Andrew. The records aren’t good enough to say whether any earlier storms were Category 5 by today’s standards and they don’t go back very far with respect to the length of time that such storms have visited the North American mainland.
But lesser tropical cyclones, like tropical storms and tropical depressions, can produce both microbursts and tornadoes and simple straight-line gusts can far exceed the sustained wind velocity of such storms. Of course this is true for hurricanes too. Illustration G below shows initiation points of tornadoes spawned by tropical cyclones (e.g. tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes) from 1995 through 2010. The entire report is available in the PDF format here:
– ILLUSTRATION G –
Please enlarge this with a left click. This illustration is on page 7 of Roger Edwards’ report which is available to you as the previous PDF document link titled Tornadoes Tropical Cyclones.
Recently, I looked into the proximity of past storms near my church and created a graphic for those who might be interested. Since the church is located in Lecanto and near the geographical center of Citrus County, I’m including the graphic in this weblog entry. Notice that I picked a small radius of 25 miles yet the illustration clearly shows a lot of activity. Had I picked a larger radius, say 50 miles, the graphic would show many more storms ( for an example of what I mean, see illustration D with a 100 mile radius centered on Inverness).
– ILLUSTRATION H –
Note: If you would like to utilize the program I used to derive illustration D and illustration H, here is a link:
The Relationship Between Wind Velocity and Its Potential Force
There is one last point I’d like to make and I have found in my years of teaching that there are many people who do not know this: One would think that the potential force of an 80 mph wind would be twice that of a 40 mph wind. But that is not true. The relationship is not linear – it is exponential. An 80 mph wind has FOUR TIMES the potential force of a 40 mph wind. When someone looking at the historical chart above sees mostly tropical storms (green) and category 1 hurricanes (yellow) they typically tend to minimize the dangers. They don’t realize that an 80 mph category 1 hurricane wind is far worse than a 60 mph tropical storm wind. I’ve done the math and, as it turns out, an 80 mph hurricane wind has 1.78 times the potential force of a 60 mph tropical storm wind (or close to twice the potential force). So, in even more simple terms, small increases in wind velocity result in large increases in potential force! For more discussion on the relationship between velocity and force, click on this link to a previous weblog entry:
My next mission is to discuss this with some people in the area to learn their attitudes and feelings on the subject. I’m sure I will learn a lot and gain more knowledge and insight. For example, I’ll bet there are some who just don’t feel it’s worth the effort – that they will just evacuate and let insurance take care of things, or maybe take some losses and leave for good if a serious storm messes things up. Others must find permanent window and door protection to be “cost prohibitive” and have plans to somehow temporarily protect those openings – maybe at the last minute. None of those approaches work for me; there are just too many variables. For example, try buying plywood when it becomes fairly clear that a hurricane is coming your way. Or – consider what it might be like if you do plan to evacuate but wait too long and are unable to do so. Being inside a home that is breaking apart during a serious hurricane is no picnic.
NOTE: See link below to “Window Protection Is Essential”.
I suspect that there are many who feel they have thought things through and that their apparent inaction is merely a function of our individual differences in thinking. Perhaps they do indeed have a “plan” albeit different than mine. What’s the saying – “Different strokes for different folks”? Regardless, I strongly recommend advanced preparation.
I observed complacency among many people in pre-Andrew Homestead and suspect it exists there again because, after all, that was 22 years ago. So why should I expect a greater awareness and more obvious preparation along the Nature Coast where Citrus County is located? The fact is, I don’t. But I can dream, can’t I?
Citrus County Emergency Management – http://www.sheriffcitrus.org/EM/
Disaster Preparedness (Florida Department of Health – Citrus County) http://www.floridahealth.gov/chdCitrus/disasterpreparedness.htm
Hurricane misconceptions: https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/09/23/952/
Saffir-Simpson hurricane categories: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php
Sustained winds: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D4.html
Window protection is essential: https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/09/08/window-protection-for-hurricanes-is-essential/
The effects of hurricane winds upon a house: https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/09/10/the-effect-of-hurricane-winds-upon-a-house/
Hurricane focus on Central Florida: https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/09/13/hurricane-focus-on-central-florida/
Why is Florida so humid? https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2009/07/04/why-is-florida-so-humid/
Virgil Oren Toney (my uncle Oren) died peacefully on Sunday, June 29, 2014 in his Indiana farm home. He was 89. He is the focus of this web-log entry*.
*I’ve entered this posting primarily for family and friends. “Friends” include neighbors, my former classmates and other school chums, members of my church, my dear former students (who more than likely heard me make references to farm life and/or my wonderful family) and others. I do not participate in social media communication because I fear that I might spend too much valuable time doing so. Therefore, I’m using my web-log as an outlet.
♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥
My young mother was 16 when I was born in California in 1939. My father was 24 and had already served a full “hitch” in the Navy; however, he was pulled back in by World War II and served in the Pacific Theater as a Seabee. He returned in February, 1946 with both physical and emotional issues – both of which went untreated. Insult added to injury when his group returned from the War without fanfare and he had a tough time finding a job. Also, he more or less returned to a mess and his usage of alcohol increased. My dad, Don, had a good mind and a good heart but, in spite of that, things pretty much feel apart. He and my mother separated in 1949. He stayed on as a bartender in California while mom, Margaret (Maggie) and I bused to Muncie, Indiana to live with my maternal grandparents. This occurred shortly before my 10thbirthday. I was in the third grade. Thus, mistakes made by both of my parents led to an eventual divorce. The situation in California would have been bad for any child; there is no need to go into more detail. It suffices to say that the breakup, though painful, was in my best interest; I feel certain that my welfare was one of mother’s leading considerations.
I spent almost 3 days with dad during the late summer of 1950 when he took me to New York to see the final game of the World Series and then visited his Hoosier family. Then there was a two day period in 1954 when he came back to Indiana for the funeral of his brother, Elvyn. I did not see him again until 1961 when my dear Uncle Oren and Aunt Marge drove all the way out to California with their three young boys and me in their small Ford station wagon. Elvyn, named for the uncle he never saw, was in diapers. We did a lot of camping on the way out and back and, because of the places we visited (e.g. Yosemite) my interest in geology and meteorology blossomed. Shortly after I returned from this trip I changed my major at Ball State to earth sciences, now often referred to as the geosciences, and eventually completed a graduate study there. Thus, Oren and Marge were instrumental in my selection of a career and also instrumental in my having the will to stick it out in spite of the long hours of my full-time job. They had a great deal to do with the fact that I never felt alone. In fact, I’ve never felt alone in my entire life. I’ve always felt loved.
NOTE: After 1961 my father and I spent time together more frequently until the day he died in 1991.
My father’s parents, Ansel and Stella Toney, lived on a farm less than 15 miles east of the Muncie home. So, after mom and dad “split,” I was blessed with the great advantage of having both sets of grandparents in my life. I went to school in the city of Muncie and was technically, I suppose, a city kid. But I was able to spend considerable time, especially in the summers, on the farm working and playing and learning at a rapid rate. Learning a bit about honest, hard work was a blessing for me; much of it seemed like play.
Three of dad’s 5 siblings were close to home – the youngest “boy” Bill, the only “girl” Hazel, and Virgil Oren. Of the 6, Bill is the only one who remains alive today. Ivan Dunlap was in Los Angeles with his wife, May, and Elvyn was in Indianapolis with his wife, Lucille. Oren was a recently married 25-year-old when he became my primary role model. This happened very soon after I arrived in Indiana. At that time he and his brother, Bill, worked on my grandfather’s farm. Hazel lived in town (Farmland, Indiana) with her husband, Orpheus. Grandfather, Ansel Toney, later became well-known as the Hoosier farmer turned kite man.
Grandpa had a powerful influence upon me as did Bill. The same is true for my maternal grandfather, Harley, an absolutely wonderful man who set such a good example for me. But Oren was the one who I observed closely more than any other man, at least until my mother re-married when I was 15. Oren positioned me under his wing but he did not baby or spoil me. In other words, his wings were not typically soft and gentle; they sometimes came down hard but they were none-the-less good for me. He never did me any harm beyond triggering occasional and very brief hurt feelings in a hypersensitive boy. Timewise, that quickly diminished as I became more and more secure in my own skin. I credit him mostly for my experiencing that essential growth.
The importance of his wife (Aunt Marge) cannot be overstated. Describing her would require a very long chapter in any story of my life that included discussions of those who influenced me the most. Oren and Marge, as a loving couple, provided a model for those of us lucky enough to have the opportunity to observe. Additionally, his sons are like brothers to me.
Oren had already gone through the school of hard knocks by the time I got to Indiana. As a boy on the farm he grew up under conditions that were frequently difficult where he and his siblings had plenty of hard work to do. After the U.S.A entered World War II, he deliberately accelerated and increased his high school course load and managed to get enough credits for graduation before the end of the school year. At age 17 he joined the United States Navy. Enlisting prior to and thus missing his graduation exercise – his presence was symbolized by an empty chair. He served in both theaters of that war, European and Pacific. Miraculously, he lived through it. For the rest of Oren’s life the tender qualities of his heart and mind surfaced unmistakeably whenever he thought of those who didn’t survive. Among other terrible things, he had witnessed the direct hit of the light cruiser, U.S.S. Savannah (CL-42) by a radio guided German glide bomb. This occurred on September 11, 1943 during the invasion of Salerno, Italy. The Savannah had been the first American ship to open fire against the German shore defenses in Salerno Bay. The death toll aboard the Savannah from that glide bomb was 197 and 15 others were seriously wounded. From his battle station aboard his ship, the light cruiser Philadelphia (CL-41), Oren saw it happen and the memory stuck with him all of his life. I don’t ever remember hearing him mention it without tears in his eyes – pain and hurt in his voice. NOTE: Philadelphia narrowly evaded a glide bomb during that same operation, although several of her crew were injured when the bomb exploded.
Like all humans I know, Oren was not perfect. But he was perfect for me from the time I came home to Indiana with my mother until the day he died. He had more positive influence upon me than any man, with the possible exception of my stepfather. He played a most significant role in my internalization of an identity. Especially when he teamed up with his great brother, Bill, I was one of the luckiest boys in the world. As time marched on and we all got older, his importance in my life did not diminish. Decidedly different than Bill, there was one glaring similarity and that was their willingness to help others – whether or not they were family members. Once, not many miles short of a routine Air Force Reserve meeting at Wright Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio – my car broke down. Bill and Oren together rescued me; Bill drove his truck (his pride and joy) to tow the car all the way back to a Muncie repair shop where I had been given the privilege of paying off my repair bills in installments – without interest. It was run by the wonderfully helpful couple, Hank and Olive Swain.
Oren was clearly good to all of the spouses and the children of each generation loved him. People from all over the community, farmers and town dwellers alike, were so very fond of him.
Another World War II vet is gone. I’m not entirely joking when I often say, “Without him and others like him, we who now occupy the U.S.A. would probably be eating sauerkraut with chopsticks whether or not we wanted to – that is, assuming we had lived through the takeover.
My 4-year-long Muncie factory job (Beckett Bronze) that paid my college expenses and supported my small family was acquired on the basis of Oren’s reputation established when he had worked there. His recommendation got me in the door. He and his teammate, Marge, fed me and my family countless times at their kitchen table – the table that my daughter, Gina, has written about in a piece I have linked you to near the end of this posting.
I loved him so much. I’m sure that others have been similarly inspired by the goodness of Oren and Marge and I’m not the only person who has been guided by the two through times that would have been much tougher without them.
Here is his obituary written by his oldest son, Doug:
FARMLAND (Indiana) – Virgil “Oren” Toney, 89, Farmland, died Sunday, June 29, 2014 at his home.
Oren was a retired farmer. He also was retired from Warner Gear where he was a machinery repairman for twenty-seven years.
Oren was born on June 3, 1925, in Farmland, to Ansel and Stella Toney. He was a 1943 graduate of Farmland High School.
Oren joined the Navy at the age of 17 during World War II. He served proudly on the light cruiser USS Philadelphia in the Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea. He participated in the invasions of Sicily, Salerno, Anzio and Southern France. After Germany’s surrender, he was assigned to the destroyer USS Bordelon, where he served in the Pacific until February 1946. Note added: The Bordelon operated as a part of the occupation force in Japan.
He was a lifetime member of the Farmland American Legion Post and enjoyed attending annual reunions with his former shipmates from the USS Philadelphia.
Oren was married for sixty-five years to Marjorie Truex Toney, who survives. Other survivors include his brother, Wilbur “Bill” Toney, Farmland; two sons, Marc Toney, Parker City, and Doug Toney and his wife, Patty Ryan Toney, New Braunfels, TX; eight grandchildren; four great-grandchildren; numerous nieces, nephews, great-nieces and great-nephews.
He was preceded in death by a son, Elvyn Boyd Toney; his parents, Ansel and Stella Toney; three brothers, Ivan, Don and Elvyn, and a sister, Hazel Mae Meranda.
No visitation or public services are planned. A private ceremony for family will be conducted at a later date.
In lieu of flowers, the family has requested that memorial contributions be directed to the Rehoboth United Methodist Church, 3955 North 1000 West, Parker City, IN, 47340.
Written by my daughter, Gina in 2012: https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/tag/oren-toney/
My young mother (written Dec. 2, 2010): https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2010/12/02/my-mother-12-2-2010/
Oren’s father/my grandfather: http://www.farmlandindiana.org/ansel-toney-the-kite-man.htm
Note: In the previous photo at the very bottom of the link grandpa Toney is with his son Bill (on the left side of photo wearing glasses) and Oren is on the right side of photo.
Light Cruiser Philadelphia, CL-41
Destroyer U.S.S. Bordelon, DD-881
U.S.S. Philadelphia Service Record
The graphic above is the Friday, October 4, 2013 10 a.m CDT (advisory #6) from the National Hurricane Center.
Those who follow this web-log know that my primary source of information regarding tropical weather is Dr. Jeff Masters of Weather Underground. His blog can be found by clicking on the “community” tab once you open the following page: http://www.wunderground.com/
It would be a waste of my time and yours for me to try to explain it any better. Here is his verbatim forecast report posted at 1:44 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Forecast for Karen
Wind shear for the next three days is expected to stay high, around 20 – 30 knots, according to the 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere is quite dry over the Western Gulf of Mexico, and this dry air combined with high wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification possible until landfall. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will bring higher wind shear near 30 knots and turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Saturday. The higher shear, combined with ocean temperatures that will drop to 28°C, may be able to induce weakening, and NHC has sharply reduced its odds of Karen achieving hurricane strength. The 5 am EDT Friday wind probability forecast from NHC put Karen’s best chance of becoming a hurricane as a 23% chance on Sunday at 2 am EDT. This is down from the 41% odds given in Thursday afternoon’s forecast. Most of the models show Karen intensifying by 5 – 10 mb on Saturday afternoon and evening as the storm nears the coast, as the storm interacts with the trough of low pressure turning it to the northeast. This predicted intensification may be because of stronger upper-level outflow developing (due to diverging winds aloft sucking up more air from the surface.) We don’t have much skill making hurricane intensity forecasts, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Karen do the opposite of what the models predict, and decay to a weak tropical storm just before landfall, due to strong wind shear. In any case, residents of New Orleans should feel confident that their levee system will easily withstand any storm surge Karen may generate, as rapid intensification of Karen to a Category 3 or stronger hurricane has a only a minuscule probability of occurring (1% chance in the latest NHC forecast.)
Since Karen is expected to make a sharp course change to the northeast near the time it approaches the south coast of Louisiana, the models show a wide range of possible landfall locations. The European and UKMET models are the farthest west, with a landfall occurring west of New Orleans. The GFS model is at the opposite extreme, showing a landfall about 400 miles to the east, near Apalachicola, Florida. NHC is splitting the difference between these extremes, which is a reasonable compromise. Most of Karen’s heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear when the storm makes landfall, and there will likely be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 – 3″ to the immediate west of where the center. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 – 8″ can be expected to the east. NHC’s 5 am EDT Friday wind probability forecast shows the highest odds of tropical storm-force winds to be at the tip of the Mississippi River at Buras, Louisiana: 66%. New Orleans, Gulfport, Mobile, and Pensacola have odds ranging from 47% – 51%.
I am pleased to announce that the Senior Learning Institute (SLI) of the College of Central Florida in Ocala is providing me another opportunity to present a geosciences topic that is near and dear to me.
IMPORTANT SPECIAL UPDATE (5-10-2015): The Senior Learning Institute no longer exists. It has become the non-profit Senior Learners, Inc. and classes are still taught at the College of Central Florida in Ocala. Here is a link:
IDENTIFYING AND UNDERSTANDING CLOUDS will be presented on Feb. 5, 7, 12, 14 (2013) – from 10 until noon (for a total of 8 hours). Click on the following link for my outline which will be distributed at the beginning of the first class meeting.
I have presented a dozen seminars at the SLI since 2006 and thoroughly enjoyed them. Since I taught a 12 hour course on clouds in April, 2007 I have received requests from a number of people who missed it and also from others who wished to do it again as a refresher.
SLI is a membership group composed of some terrific people who seem to consider “learning” to be an integral aspect of their life styles. When I am with them, though my official roll is that of a presenter, I learn so very much. I learn from them and I learn in the processes of preparing and presenting. There are some significant differences between these courses and the courses I taught for 41 years at colleges and universities: 1) the SLI seminars are non-credit courses, 2) they are short in duration compared to most college courses, 3) there are no academic prerequisites to the courses, 4) there are no exams to fret over, 5) there are no grades, 6) all who enroll are there voluntarily and, from what I can tell, gladly and 7) many have a great deal of experience acquired through time and by their sharing are able to enhance the quality of the course.
What concerns me most is the number of people who will not address and act upon hurricane Sandy’s threat maturely. As a man who grew up in an environment where “being a man” meant being able to handle, support, protect, and defend – I can identify with the need to have it “together” in these types of situations. It was hard for me on the morning of 8-23-1992 to “order” my wife, two children, father-in-law, and mother-in-law into my van so that we could evacuate our two homes (separated by less than a mile) in Homestead, Florida to escape approaching hurricane Andrew. But, when we returned 3 days later we were thanking the Great Guy In the Sky that we were not there when the storm hit. It would have been a most traumatic experience and could have been deadly. Our house was a total loss and my in-laws’ house was severely damaged but not beyond repair. There are people today of all ages still suffering post traumatic stress syndrome over that hurricane of 20 years ago. Admittedly, the aftermath and rebuilding processes were extraordinarily difficult but we were together and healthy and I had very good insurance and did not lose my job. Thousands of people lost both their dwellings and their jobs! We had much for which to be grateful.
But, sometimes, in an attempt to handle, support, protect, and defend – people (men in particular, I think) tend to make macho decisions that they later regret – if they live to experience regret. One example is: Failing to evacuate dangerous areas that are subject to flooding, landslides, storm surges, etc. Believe me – there is no disgrace in fleeing in such circumstance. Sure, one wants to stay and protect his/her home and the “things” within it but such a mindset can backfire resulting in fatal consequences. Take my word for it, “things” can be replaced in time but once you lose your life of worse, that of a loved one – there is no going back or rebirth back into this dimension.
Hurricane Sandy is a storm that has it all. Oh sure, it’s not a category 5 storm as was Andrew but it is a huge storm taking up an area more than the size of Texas one and one-half times! And – it has a strong pressure gradient. It has a very long fetch (distance of water over which the wind blows) which increases significantly the potential height of the storm surge.
Just because the winds are within the category 1 range, remember that slight increases can cause exponential increases in the potential force. In fact, doubling the wind velocity quadruples the air’s potential force upon a surface that it strikes at right angles. Early on in my teaching career it because quite apparent to me that most people assume that doubling the velocity simply doubles the force. But that is far from true. For example, an 80 mile per hour wind has FOUR TIMES the potential force of a 40 mile per hour wind. So DON’T think to yourself, “I know I can deal with a 40 mile per hour wind; in fact I and my dwelling can deal with one that is 80 miles per hour because that is just two times that of a “40.” YOU WOULD BE VERY, VERY WRONG! If you are interested in more on this subject, including an equation – go here:
A great deal of precipitation over land is expected with Sandy – so much that many of the drainage systems, both natural and man-made, will not be able to handle it. Trees will be less stable because of saturation of the soil and rock into which their roots are anchored. Combined with the wind force, many will come down. Unhealthy trees will snap. Mother Nature WILL do a great amount of pruning. Electricity will be cut off due to line damage from falling debris and flooding. Water pressure may drop or reduce to zero. Even modern gravity-feed systems require boosting due to the effects of friction and that usually requires electricity. If you have an electric pump with a well and no emergency generator, you could be out of luck. If your toilet is relatively modern you will still need about 1.6 gallons per flush. “If it’s yellow, let it mellow; if it’s brown, flush it down” might become your rule of thumb even if you have a lot of water stored (as in a tub that doesn’t slowly leak at the drain).
Since much moisture will be drawn in by the storm from off the Atlantic and much cold air will be drawn down from the north, there is a very strong chance for SNOW with this storm.
The bottom line, in my opinion is – If you are in the path of Sandy and:
- in a storm surge zone – evacuate.
- in a wooded area with big trees so close to your home that upon falling they are likely to do structural damage – evacuate.
- upon a hillside or mountainside where your area or an area above or below you has been stripped of most vegetation – evacuate. Slides are a real danger in these cases.
- in a region that can easily flood – evacuate.
- in a neighborhood where there is a lot of loose matter that could easily become damaging airborne projectiles – evacuate.
- in a mobile home or R.V. – evacuate.
- in a dwelling where, when you look out a front window you are looking down a street that is at right angles to your street – evacuate. The Venturi Effect can channel much higher winds and debris right into your dwelling!
- in any kind of a topographic restriction such as a narrow valley between two hills or mountains – evacuate for the same reason as in item 7.
- NOT prepared for many days without water service and/or electricity – evacuate.
- in an evacuation zone – evacuate!
- one who feels as though fleeing is a cowardly act – engage in a very quick but thorough attitude adjustment and ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.
BUT DON’T EVACUATE IF THE STORM IS UPON YOU UNLESS YOU FEEL THAT THE MOVE IS ACTUALLY SAFER THAN STAYING.
This is the 4 pm EDT advisory for August 30, 2012.
Two left clicks on the image will enlarge it fully.
By the time you see this posting, the forecast graphic for what remains of Isaac (above) will probably be obsolete. Here is where to go to get a comparable update (however, the advisory above might be the last):
In spite of modern technology the tasks of the National Hurricane Center’s forecasters are not easy and I guarantee they burned the midnight oil as this event unfolded. They have so many variables and unknowns to deal with. I think they do a wonderful job.
Where I live, in west-central Florida about 18 miles inland from where the tiny Crystal River flows into the Gulf of Mexico, there are long-term concerns about our fresh water supply. So I had hoped that Isaac would provide just the right amount of water WITHOUT damaging and costly winds and flooding. Like most humans, I want all of the good but none of the bad that can come from Nature’s wonders. At this time, Thursday evening, 8-30-2012, we are still getting some rain directly related to Isaac even though its center is about to move into Arkansas. Hopefully the system will provide needed rain to drought stricken areas in it’s predicted path. My retired-farmer uncle in Indiana indicates that it’s probably too late for the field corn but could be helpful to the soybeans. As I write, flooding and potential flooding in certain areas of Louisiana are creating real headaches there. There are some places claiming to have more water than with Katrina, albeit for different sets of circumstances.
There is so much information available today and I understand the great value of our acquired knowledge about tropical weather since I first began studying it formally (over 50 years ago) but sometimes, I confess, I think fondly of the days when we had little notion of what was going on until much later in a tropical cyclone’s life cycle. Now, it seems that the media devotes an inordinate amount of time telling us about the negatives and potential negatives that are going on all over the world and I can no longer bask in my ignorance as I used to because I haven’t the will-power or inclination to ignore the resources that are available. But, I concede, there are limits to the notion that ignorance is bliss.
I wish you peace, good health, and happiness.
Filed under: Anticyclonic Circulation, Central Florida Weather, Climatology, College of Central Florida Senior Learning Institute, Coriolis Effect, Cyclonic Circulatiion, Extratropical cyclones, Florida Weather, Florida’s Rainy Season, Humidity in Florida, Hurricanes, Learning Opportunities in Central Florida, Meteorology lesson/tutorial, New Weather Seminar in Ocala, Ocala Educational Opportunities, Senior Learning Institute, T. Ansel Toney, Tonie A. Toney, Tonie Ansel Toney, Tonie Toney, Tropical Weather, Weather (other than of tropical origin), Weather Physics | Tags: College of Central Florida Senior Learning Institute, Learning about weather, Senior Citizen Learning Opportunites in Ocala, Senior Learning Institute, Tonie Ansel Toney, Tonie Toney, Wind basics | Edit
In the illustration above you are actually looking at the same weather system in the two images above. It is hurricane Ike early in the morning of September 9, 2008. On the left you see the circulation at the top of the storm and on the right you see the circulation at lower levels. The faint gray arrows show the direction of the pressure gradient force which is the direction the air would flow if there were no Coriolis effect (caused by the earth’s rotation on its axis). The Coriolis effect will be explained graphically in class and demonstrations will be shown on the classroom projection screen.
January 30, 2012 (revised March 3, 2012).
A new 8 hour course for Senior Learning Institute participants at the College of Central Florida is being offered in August in four two-hour sessions.
Meetings are scheduled for August 21, 23, 28, 30 (Tuesdays and Thursdays) from 10 AM until noon.
Here is the course title, description, brief instructor profile and at the end you will find a link to the 6 page guide which will be distributed in print on the first day of class. Additionally, here is a link to the Senior Learning Institute web page:
Lower Atmospheric Winds That Influence Weather and Climate.”
No science background is necessary to have a gratifying learning experience in this new 8 hour course. It is structured differently than any of the 11 earth science seminars I taught for Senior Learning Institute participants from July 2006 through May 2009; 6 were on meteorological subjects and this most resembles the 12 hour course “Becoming Weatherwise” taught once in Oct./Nov. of 2006.
Wind is responsible for most weather changes (and has a great influence upon climate). I will capitalize on what I learned about SLI participants’ learning styles and preferences during my earlier teaching activity. The course will begin with basic fundamentals concerning the cause of wind and will proceed to a discussions of lower atmospheric motion which has the most profound effect upon our weather. Emphasis will be upon cause and effect, interactions and interrelationships. Upward and downward air motions will also be discussed. Whenever I am able, I will use every day analogies for clarity and will show on-line, real-time examples.
During class meetings I enjoy questions, contributions, and observations from participants. But with much to discuss in 8 hours those which are too detailed for the scope of the course may be addressed after class. I am also happy to communicate via e-mail. For those who have never studied weather, this course will make media weather reports and other weather observations more meaningful. For those who have had occasion to study weather, this will be a nice refresher which could very well enhance your understanding.
Instructor: Tonie Ansel Toney first became interested in the weather as a part-time Hoosier “farm boy” and that interest played a role in his enlisting in the U.S. Air Force at an early age, where his appetite for learning about weather was whetted. He is a retired college/university earth sciences professor with 37 years of full time experience bracketed by 4 years of part-time experience. He taught physical geology, meteorology, macro-climatology, physical oceanography, and environmental sciences. He developed a reputation for having the ability to teach science effectively to non-science majors – increasing the probability of it being “fun” in the process – and earned many teaching excellence awards. He is the most widely quoted faculty member in the 1985 book, Access and Excellence (Roueche & Baker of the University of Texas). He and his family had first-hand experience with 1992’s hurricane Andrew which “totaled” their former Homestead, Florida dwelling. They now reside in Citrus County.