Archive for September 5th, 2008|Daily archive page

Hurricane Ike

My grandsons are getting all of my time tomorrow during most of the daylight hours.  I don’t expect to return to this laptop until about 8 pm EST at which time I’ll be preparing a post while watching the University of Florida – University of Miami football game on television.

The image posted below is not complete.  I have prepared it to show you the GFDL models prediction released at 2 pm EDT today for the POSITION of hurricane Ike 5 days from that time (in other words for Wednesday the 10th).  It is my opinion that predictions beyond five days are exercises in futility and that declaration is not original thinking on my part.  It is what I have learned from others far better equipped than Cloudman23 to make such evaluations.  However, I have consulted the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting model (ECMWF) and find it interesting that it shows Ike moving similarly to the GFDL but since it is projecting further out in time it shows the storm moving through the Gulf and up to the Louisiana-Texas border by Friday the 12th.  WARNING: SUCH A PREDICTION, NO MATTER HOW POWERFUL AND COMPREHENSIVE THE MODEL, SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN TOO SERIOUSLY AT THIS POINT – CERTAINLY NOT TO THE DEGREE THAT OCCUPANTS IN OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ATLANTIC COAST LET THEIR GUARDS DOWN.  AT THIS POINT IN TIME THAT WOULD BE A VERY SERIOUS MISTAKE.,

This is no storm to take lightly.  It is potentially lethal to more than just a few people and places.  So I am pleading with those of you in an area where this storm might move – please keep a close watch and as I’ve said before, have a plan.  You do not want to be in this one if its bite is as impressive as its bark (and it’s echo).  Don’t let complacency rule.  If you suffer from that disease that seems to be epidemic in our country today, terminal uniqueness, please don’t be too crafty for your own good.  Please listen to the experts – ignore me if you choose – but listen to them.  At the very least I recommend that you pay attention to the Weather Channel, the National Hurricane Center and the WeatherUnderground tropical pages.  Moments ago I added a link on this page to the latter.  Don’t perceive the forecast plot to be a line or an arc.  Heed the “cone of uncertainty.”  This hurricane could pull some tracking surprises but he’s likely to be very strong no matter where he goes.

I may add one more post before calling it a night.  If I do it will be a short hurricane Andrew story.

LEFT CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE
LEFT CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

If you would like to examine the site from which the graphic above was derived, and also the ECMWF and a few other models, use this link:     http://tc.met.psu.edu/

Ike Doesn’t Look Nice – Hanna Seems To Know Where She’s Goin’

LEFT CLICK FOR A LARGER IMAGE
LEFT CLICK FOR A LARGER IMAGE

In scouring the Web I’ve reached the easy conclusion that there is a general consensus on Hanna’s landfall – somewhere along the Coast of South Carolina as a tropical storm – probably somewhere near midnight but with plenty of possibilities for noteworthy weather before that.

Ike, on the other hand is a more difficult critter to read.  At this point in time it is my opinion that all East Coast and all Gulf Coast occupants should be alert.  The very unfortunate aspect of Ike is his strength.  He looks like a little buzz saw and reminds me of Andrew.  Having had experience with Andrew (we lived in Homestead at the time) this does not conjure up pleasant thoughts.  I recommend that anyone in Ike’s path evacuate – unless he deintensifies substantially.  My stance on that is – “Don’t flirt with danger – why take a chance?”

So, keep a close eye on Ike throughout the weekend and if you are in a threatened area have a plan for getting the heck out of there and don’t forget to take your important papers with you.  If there are family photos that are precious to you, protect them.  If you come back to a mess and you rely upon charge cards, you might discover that you will need cash.  Even in Baton Rouge I understand that charge cards have been a problem.

When we returned to our demolished house after Andrew my wife silently asked the Great Guy In the Sky for just one thing – those photos of the kids growing up and other family members.  She had secured them in plastic garbage bags and placed them in an oak cabinet that we had in the family room.  The roof was gone but the piece of furniture, though ruined from the water, protected the bags.  Not one single photo got wet.

A LOOK AT ALL THREE – HANNA, IKE, AND JOSEPHINE

I am posting two images at this time.

The first is from http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/.  I observed it just before midnight (a short time ago).  It shows percentage probabilities for tropical storm force winds for Hanna.  This is the first time I’ve shown you a chart of this type.  Please remember that the numbers on the scale are NOT wind velocities.

The second chart was also observed just before midnight.  It shows forecast paths and “cones of uncertainty” for all three that are being closely watched in the Atlantic – Hanna, Ike, and Josephine.  Above all, notice the magnitude of Ike!

From what I have been reading and observing tonight, I feel that the depiction of Ike veering and heading northward at the time shown might be incorrect.  There are so many variables to contend with but I lean toward the notion that it might move further south as it continues it’s path generally toward the west.  It could get into the Gulf of Mexico.  It is my opinion that such a possibility should not be ignored by those along the Florida Gulf Coast and also other Gulf Coastal occupants.  As I keep saying – time will tell.

I happen to feel that the National Hurricane Center forecasters do a terrific job.  One day I might write on the subject of what it is like to be in their position.  They are between a rock and a hard place – that’s for sure. Continue reading