I am posting two images at this time.

The first is from http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/.  I observed it just before midnight (a short time ago).  It shows percentage probabilities for tropical storm force winds for Hanna.  This is the first time I’ve shown you a chart of this type.  Please remember that the numbers on the scale are NOT wind velocities.

The second chart was also observed just before midnight.  It shows forecast paths and “cones of uncertainty” for all three that are being closely watched in the Atlantic – Hanna, Ike, and Josephine.  Above all, notice the magnitude of Ike!

From what I have been reading and observing tonight, I feel that the depiction of Ike veering and heading northward at the time shown might be incorrect.  There are so many variables to contend with but I lean toward the notion that it might move further south as it continues it’s path generally toward the west.  It could get into the Gulf of Mexico.  It is my opinion that such a possibility should not be ignored by those along the Florida Gulf Coast and also other Gulf Coastal occupants.  As I keep saying – time will tell.

I happen to feel that the National Hurricane Center forecasters do a terrific job.  One day I might write on the subject of what it is like to be in their position.  They are between a rock and a hard place – that’s for sure.

Also, they must deal with so many unknowns.  Perhaps you hadn’t thought of that aspect.  For those of you who studied Algebra at some time in your life – maybe you remember your reaction when you got far enough along to be solving equations when instead of one, there were two unknowns.  For some of you the concept and the method might have come easy.  For others, I imagine that it was difficult.  Now – imagine having to come up with solutions that millions of people are counting on when there are millions upon millions of unknowns!  The measurements (data points) that those men and women have access to may seem very comprehensive to you in this modern time of satellites and computers – but, in my opinion, they are just scratching the surface.  More research needs to be done and more money needs to be made available for that purpose.  Please put yourself in the position of those with forecasting responsibilities and give them some slack when you judge the results of their work.

Finally, remember that Eastern Daylight Time is 4 hours earlier than UTC (Zulu, Greenwich) time.

from WeatherUnderground.com

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