Hurricane Ike

My grandsons are getting all of my time tomorrow during most of the daylight hours.  I don’t expect to return to this laptop until about 8 pm EST at which time I’ll be preparing a post while watching the University of Florida – University of Miami football game on television.

The image posted below is not complete.  I have prepared it to show you the GFDL models prediction released at 2 pm EDT today for the POSITION of hurricane Ike 5 days from that time (in other words for Wednesday the 10th).  It is my opinion that predictions beyond five days are exercises in futility and that declaration is not original thinking on my part.  It is what I have learned from others far better equipped than Cloudman23 to make such evaluations.  However, I have consulted the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting model (ECMWF) and find it interesting that it shows Ike moving similarly to the GFDL but since it is projecting further out in time it shows the storm moving through the Gulf and up to the Louisiana-Texas border by Friday the 12th.  WARNING: SUCH A PREDICTION, NO MATTER HOW POWERFUL AND COMPREHENSIVE THE MODEL, SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN TOO SERIOUSLY AT THIS POINT – CERTAINLY NOT TO THE DEGREE THAT OCCUPANTS IN OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ATLANTIC COAST LET THEIR GUARDS DOWN.  AT THIS POINT IN TIME THAT WOULD BE A VERY SERIOUS MISTAKE.,

This is no storm to take lightly.  It is potentially lethal to more than just a few people and places.  So I am pleading with those of you in an area where this storm might move – please keep a close watch and as I’ve said before, have a plan.  You do not want to be in this one if its bite is as impressive as its bark (and it’s echo).  Don’t let complacency rule.  If you suffer from that disease that seems to be epidemic in our country today, terminal uniqueness, please don’t be too crafty for your own good.  Please listen to the experts – ignore me if you choose – but listen to them.  At the very least I recommend that you pay attention to the Weather Channel, the National Hurricane Center and the WeatherUnderground tropical pages.  Moments ago I added a link on this page to the latter.  Don’t perceive the forecast plot to be a line or an arc.  Heed the “cone of uncertainty.”  This hurricane could pull some tracking surprises but he’s likely to be very strong no matter where he goes.

I may add one more post before calling it a night.  If I do it will be a short hurricane Andrew story.


If you would like to examine the site from which the graphic above was derived, and also the ECMWF and a few other models, use this link:

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