Archive for September 7th, 2008|Daily archive page

Gulf of Mexico Surface Temperatures and Possible Upwelling

IMAGE SHOULD LOOP FROM Aug.28 - Sept. 07

LEFT CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE

This Gulf of Mexico image loop runs from August 28 through September 6, 2008.  To make sense of the loop you must observe the dates at the upper right of the image.

We often hear and read that 80° Fahrenheit is a minimum sea surface temperature for tropical systems to develop, and strengthen such that they survive.  That makes this graphic’s temperature scale relatively easy to interpret and make deductions because 26° Celsius is equivalent to 81° Fahrenheit and that is about the boundary between the “hot” colors and the “cool” colors.  Thus, when you watch the loop you will be seeing conditions conducive to the maintenance and possible strengthening of HURRICANE IKE if it travels over Gulf waters.  Forecasts are in great agreement that it will.

You might find the emergence of yellows interesting in the loop.  I’m quite certain that it is related to Gustav winds in that area during those designated days causing surface water to move toward the northwest allowing slightly cooler water to well up from below.  Upwelling is a very important phenomenon in oceans, not only with strong storm winds but also on a larger planetary scale along the western margins of the continents. – If you are interested in upwelling and its importance, please read on

GREAT INAGUA ISLAND – A DIRECT HIT BY IKE!

According to the 2000 census, there were then fewer than 1000 people on Great Inaqua.  I imagine that the number on the island now is at least 1,100 – depending partly upon how well their salt industry has been fairing over the last few years.  The small island took a direct hit.  There are reports that Grand Turk Island was hit very hard and that perhaps 80% of the dwellings have been destroyed.

To learn more about Great Inagua Island go to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inagua

When something like this happens my mental gratitude list is very much at the forefront of my thinking. Continue reading

Ike – 5 Days From Now? – And, an Image of Ike This Afternoon –

WARNING – THIS IS A TIME SENSITIVE POST – IMPORTANT ASPECTS NO LONGER APPLY.

I am posting 3 images.  The first two are model projections for Ike to 5 days from 8 am EDT today.  That projects, then, to 8 am EDT on Friday, September 12, 2008.  If you want to view spaghetti charts uncluttered by base-line no-skills models I recommend the WeatherUnderground tropical page.  I have a link down low on the right margin of this web-log page.

1) The first image shows you the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting model (ECMWF).

2) the second images shows you the GFDL model.  Both were acquired from Penn State U. Dept. of Met.

3) the third image is self-explanatory.  It has a nice, high, resolution so to get a good view of a well-formed hurricane from above, do some left clicking on the image.

There is not quite as much agreement with the models 5 days out as there was yesterday.  The next item of consideration, I suppose, should be Gulf of Mexico temperatures because it is looking more and more as though Ike is going to be heading that way.

HAITI IS IN TROUBLE!

It is my understanding that, because of Ike, things are far worse in Haiti than they were when this photo was taken.  If you are inclined to contribute in order to help, the website beneath the photo links to a source for that purpose.  LEFT CLICK ON PHOTO FOR LARGER IMAGE.