IKE – COMPARISON BETWEEN GFDL MODEL AND NWS MIDLINE

The two charts posted below are:

1) the National Weather Service 11 pm EDT 5-day forecast for Ike.

2) the GFDL model’s forecast position at about the same time (5 days out).

The GFDL has been the best performer for the last 3 years or so.  It appears to me that there is general agreement between its “5-day out” position and the NWS forecast mid-line position 5 days out.  In most cases the forecasters tell us to avoid focusing upon the mid-line (weighted mean line) and pay more attention to the cone of uncertainty.  Nevertheless, I want you to see the comparison.  This is partly because at this time, based upon my observations of past performance, I personally have high regard for the GFDL model’s conclusion and I feel certain that the NWS forecasters do too.  However, time will tell.

Finally, remember that the storm has quite a lot of energy-providing warm water to travel over before making landfall – no matter where that is.  Please don’t forget that storms can pull some very big surprises.  I feel that everyone on (and inland of) the Gulf Coast should stay alert to the storm’s behavior.  For example, I feel that my neighbors should remain alert.  We live about 20 miles in from the Crystal River, Florida Gulf coast.

I’m attending the first 4 hours of my 8 hour AARP driving refresher class in the morning – so there won’t be any posts until the afternoon.  I highly recommend the AARP-sponsored classes for those of you in the AARP age group.  I do it once every three years and always learn something of value and the instructors make it fun.

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