Archive for September 23rd, 2008|Daily archive page

HURRICANE MISCONCEPTIONS – A LIST OF 23

Image source of Ike radar loop = WeatherUnderground.com

Image source of Ike radar loop = Weather Underground

LEFT CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE AND SEE A RADAR LOOP OF IKE AS HE COMES INTO VIEW AND EVENTUALLY MAKES LANDFALL.  WATCH FOR A DISTINCT RIGHT TURN TRACKING DIRECTLY TOWARD HOUSTON JUST BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.  IF IT HAD CONTINUED STRAIGHT, THE WINDS AND THE SURGE ALONG THE COAST AT GALVESTON AND SOUTHWESTWARD WOULD HAVE BEEN EVEN WORSE BECAUSE THAT COAST WOULD HAVE BEEN CROSSED BY THE RIGHT-HAND LEADING QUADRANT OF THE STORM

(see item 13 below).

23 COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT HURRICANES

©* Tonie Ansel Toney (see conditions for copying at the end)

https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/

I have learned of these misconceptions by communicating through the years with my students, friends, neighbors, attendees of some of the hurricane seminars that I have conducted and visitors to hurricane expos where I have given presentations.  Most of this occurred in Florida.  I learned that these items have been relatively “common” misconceptions through informal pre-tests I have given to college students at the beginning of certain semesters, answers to questions I have asked in classes during the course of myriad semesters, through conversations with people of all walks of life (and a broad range of ages and experience), and by listening carefully.

ALL 23 UPPER CASE STATEMENTS ARE FALSE IN SOME WAY.  BRIEF EXPLANATIONS FOLLOW.

1. IF THE SPEED OF WIND BLOWING DIRECTLY INTO THE SIDE OF A DWELLING CHANGES FROM 40 MPH TO 80 MPH, THE FORCE THAT IT EXERTS INTO THE STRUCTURE WILL INCREASE TO TWICE WHAT IT WAS. THE TRUTH: A doubling of the velocity will cause a four-fold increase of the force upon a surface being struck at right angles.  The relationship is “exponential,” not “linear.”

2. IF, DURING A HURRICANE, YOUR TRUE WIND DIRECTION IS FROM THE SOUTH, THE HURRICANE’S EYE IS TO THE NORTH OF YOU. THE TRUTH:  It is generally west of you.  Hurricane winds move approximately parallel to (or concentric with) the nearly circular eye-wall.  A good rule-of-thumb for eye location (in the Northern Hemisphere) is: Imagine standing with the wind at your back.  Extend your left arm out from your side and your hand will be pointing toward the eye.

3. IF AN APPROACHING HURRICANE IS ABOUT ONE DAY AWAY, PRUNING OF TREES IS ADVISABLE. THE TRUTH:  It is too late to prune at that time – it should have been done much sooner, preferably prior to the hurricane season.  Pruned material must be disposed of properly – if lying around the items can become a dangerous airborne hazards. Please read on by clicking here; there are 20 more which might interest you. And, don’t miss viewing the animated image of Ike at the beginning of this post.

THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT MAY OCCUR SOON – HEADS UP.

Though if it does occur it won’t be as stark as this Pacific Ocean weather event, but it should still be quite interesting.  If you are interested please read the previous post.  If this is the only one you see, scroll to the top of the page and click “Blog” or go to https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/

Tonie A. Toney (Cloudman23)

Tropical Wave AL 93 Might Dance Within a Few Days!

A second left click should enlarge image further.
A second left click should enlarge image further.

There is a possibility that the very interesting Fujiwhara effect might occur within the next few days.  In the image above I have placed a red dot upon the tropical disturbance that is tormenting Puerto Rico and Eastern Hispaniola and a light blue dot upon an extratropical low that is off the Eastern Seaboard and probably kicking up some big waves.  If the tropical system shoots north as the models are predicting, the two could interact in the Fujiwhara effect.  Here is a well-written link about that phenomenon.

http://weather.about.com/od/hurricaneformation/a/Fujiwhara.htm

The extratropical system might even back up a bit in response to a rotation around a common axis with the tropical system.  Go to this link now if you would like to see a rendition of what might happen:  (There are four helpful buttons – reverse, stop. forward, and single step).

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?eta_pcpn_slp_thkn+///6

SPECIAL NOTE:  THE LINK IMMEDIATELY ABOVE IS VERY TIME SENSITIVE.  IT MAY NOT SHOW WHAT I’VE DISCUSSED IN THIS BLOG UNLESS YOU VIEW IT ON THE DAY THIS WAS POSTED.   AFTERWARDS THE FORECAST MIGHT CHANGE.  IF THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT ACTUALLY COMES TO FRUITION WE WILL BE ABLE TO SEE IT VIA LOOPS THAT ACCELERATE TIME.

Of course, I did not come up with this notion on my own.  My tip came from the WeatherUnderground blog posted by Dr. Jeff Masters at 10:43 AM EDT today (September 23, 2008).  He also mentioned it yesterday.

Natural processes can be lethal and cause heartbreak but they can also be breathtakingly beautiful.  If the Fujiwhara effect happens to occur, perhaps we will have the opportunity to watch two spiraling systems dance together for a while, just as spiraling galaxies can do as they get close to each other.  Let’s hope the prediction is “right on” and that we can focus upon an event that is NOT creating havoc as did Ike.  Enjoy!