What follows is a verbatim “copy/paste” of Dr. Jeff Masters’ 9 PM EDT update in his web-log found at WeatherUndergound.com:

“Gulf of Mexico disturbance may threaten western Florida next week
An area of disturbed weather in the southern Gulf of Mexico, just west of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, has changed little today. Visible satellite images show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms moving east-southeast, towards the Yucatan Peninsula. Wind shear is about 15 knots over the region, which is marginal for development. The system should move ashore over the Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday before development into a tropical depression can occur. NHC is giving this system a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Early next week, we will have to watch the waters on either side of the Yucatan for possible development of this system. Some of the models are predicting that a tropical depression could form off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula early next week, then move northeastwards to a landfall in western Florida as early as Wednesday.”

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