Disturbance Off the Yucatan Is Not Developing – One May Develop Later This Week.

The tropical disturbance off the Yucatan (which I mentioned in a post and marked Saturday on a satellite image) is showing no signs of development.  However, a trough extending from it will surely dump some precipitation on parts of Florida.  In fact, it’s happening now (9:30 PM EDT, Sunday).  The trough is depicted on the surface analysis below from earlier today.

Left click image to enlarge.

Left click image to enlarge.

However, according to the NOGAPS computer model, in 4 or 5 days we very well may have a better-developed disturbance forming in about the same location off the Yucatan.   This is the time of the year for such activity.  The image below is the forecast released at 8 AM EDT today for 132 hours from that time.  I have mentioned in this web-log before that forecasts beyond 5 days are often exercises in futility.  Let’s see how this one turns out.

Left click image to enlarge.

Left click image to enlarge.

If you are interested in watching an animation of the NOGAPS forecast, go to the tab at the top of this page marked “Weather Tutorials.”  Scroll down to the topic, How To View Animations of the GFDL Computer Model.  As you follow the instructions, instead of clicking on the GFDL simply click on the NOGAPS.

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