Archive for October 10th, 2008|Daily archive page

Nobert Likely to Still be Hurricane Strength When Reaching Mainland Mexico

Image Source = National Hurricane Center

Image Source = National Hurricane Center LEFT CLICK TO ENLARGE IMAGE.

The graphic above and the statement below are

TIME SENSITIVE.

Statement as of 8:00 PM Pacific Daylight Time on October 10, 2008

…Outer rainbands of Norbert approaching Baja California…


a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the West Coast of Baja
California from Puerto San Andresito to Agua Blanca. Preparations
to protect life and property in the Hurricane Warning area should be
rushed to completion.


At 8 PM PDT…0300 UTC…the government of Mexico has changed the
Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of
Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo northward to guaymas to a
Hurricane Warning. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the
coast of Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo northward to guaymas.
Preparations to protect life and property in the Hurricane Warning
area should be rushed to completion.


At 8 PM PDT…the government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane
Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for the East Coast of Baja
California from north of La Paz to Loreto to a Hurricane Warning.
A Hurricane Warning is now in effect from north of La Paz to
Loreto.


A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the coast of Baja California from south of Agua Blanca southward to
Cabo San Lucas and northward around the peninsula to La Paz.


A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the East Coast of
Baja California from north of Loreto northward to Mulege.


For storm information specific to your area…including possible
inland watches and warnings…please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 800 PM PDT…0300z…the center of Hurricane Norbert was located
near latitude 22.3 north…longitude 113.1 west or about 210 miles
…335 km…west of the southern tip of Baja California and about
180 miles…290 km…south-southwest of Cabo San Lazaro Mexico.


Norbert is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph…19 km/hr
…And this general motion is expected to continue overnight
followed by a turn toward the northeast and an increase in forward
speed forecast on Saturday.  Norbert is forecast to make landfall
along the West Coast of the southern Baja California peninsula on
Saturday morning…then move over the Gulf of California Saturday
afternoon before making a second landfall in northwestern Mexico
Saturday night.


Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph…165 km/hr…with higher
gusts.  Norbert is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale.  Little change in strength is forecast before Norbert makes
landfall in Baja California.  Some weakening is forecast after that
landfall but Norbert is expected to still be a hurricane as it
makes a second landfall in Mainland Mexico.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles…55 km…from
the center…and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140
miles…220 km.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb…28.64 inches.

Norbert is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6
inches over southern Baja California as well as portions of
northwestern Mexico…with possible isolated amounts of 10 inches.
Norbert could produce rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over
portions of the southwestern United States beginning on Saturday.
These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud
slides.


Storm surge flooding of 2 to 5 feet above normal tide levels…along
with large and dangerous battering waves…is expected along the
West Coast of the southern Baja Peninsula near and to the southeast
of where Norbert makes landfall.


Repeating the 800 PM PDT position…22.3 N…113.1 W.  Movement
toward…north-northeast near 12 mph.  Maximum sustained winds…105
mph.  Minimum central pressure…970 mb.


An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 1100 PM PDT followed by the next complete advisory at 200
am PDT.


$$
Forecaster Blake/Beven



IKE MISSING – SEARCH LINK

Photo Source = Getty Images

Photo Source = Getty Images LEFT CLICK TO ENLARGE

Bodies of hurricane Ike victims continue to be recovered – mostly in debris fields.  Here is a recent story on that subject:

http://www.khou.com/ike/stories/khou081007_tj_ike_body_found_goat_island.efe8b898.html

The Red Cross has a webpage where those living in the regions effected by the hurricane and those who have evacuated/relocated can register.  I urge you to do so.  There is also a search feature for those of you who are looking for particular survivors.  Here is the link:

https://disastersafe.redcross.org/default.aspx

For those of you looking for a person or persons, it is my most sincere hope that you find all is well.  For those of you not looking, it is also my hope that all is well.

There is a wide range within the estimate of the number of people still missing.  Here are some examples:

http://www.khou.com/news/state/stories/khou080928_mp_missing_people.bfbce24e.html

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5glUtWAW1BlcQcj1enZzk-kmvVSvwD93JQV980

http://www.click2houston.com/news/17651522/detail.html