Archive for October 23rd, 2008|Daily archive page

Central American Death Toll Up to 39!

NOAA IMAGE

NOAA IMAGE

LEFT CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE.

The entire post beyond this sentence is taken verbatim from this morning’s weblog by Dr. Jeff Masters’ at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/.

“One of this hurricane season’s biggest disasters continues to unfold in Central America, where the death toll now stands at 39 from ten days of heavy rains triggered by last week’s Tropical Depression Sixteen and this week’s tropical disturbance 91L. At least 10,000 homes have been destroyed and 250,000 people made homeless by the floods. Hardest hit is Honduras, where 23 are dead and 8 missing in flash floods and landslides. Approximately 60% of the nation’s roads have been damaged, and the flooding is the worst since Hurricane Mitch of 1998 killed 10,000 people there. The past week’s flooding has also killed four in Guatemala, seven in Costa Rica, four in Nicaragua, and four in El Salvador. In Belize, damage is at least $15 million from the floods, and some areas are seeing flooding worse than was experienced during Hurricanes Mitch and Keith. Satellite estimates suggest that up to a foot of rain has fallen over some parts of Central America in the past week. The heavy damage to crops across the region will likely cause severe food shortages in coming months, and substantial international aid will be required.

Rains over the hardest hit areas of Central America have eased in the past day, with only 1-2 inches of rain reported. However, visible satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity continues over the Western Caribbean, and has moved into northeast Honduras and Nicaragua this morning. While there is currently little chance that a tropical cyclone will form in the Western Caribbean over the next five days, persistent low pressure and sporadic heavy rains will continue to affect the region. A strong cold front is expected to push southward into the area next Tuesday or Wednesday, and the tail end of this cold front could serve as the nucleus for a new tropical disturbance that will generate another round of very heavy rains for Honduras and Belize late next week.

Elsewhere in the Tropics, no computer models are forecasting tropical storm development anywhere in the Atlantic over the next seven days.”

RAINY DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR FLORIDA

LEFT CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

LEFT CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

IMAGES FROM NOAA AND TEXT ARE TIME SENSITIVE

The image above, released 5:07 PM EDT, today, Oct. 22, is a prognostication for 8:00 PM EDT, Friday, Oct. 24.  It predicts moderate rain and thunderstorms along a wide expanse of the Florida Gulf Coast.  This anticipated weather will be a combination of the former Invest 91L and typical pre-cold frontal weather.  Though the tropical component was responsible for at least 13 flood-related deaths in Honduras, great difficulties in Guatemala, and tens of millions of dollars of damage in Belize – it is not expected to be a threat to Florida.  In fact, in-so-far as the National Hurricane Center is concerned, 91L no longer exists.

It appears, then, that the forecast posted in this web-log yesterday is now toned down significantly.  However, there is a high probability for precipitation in Florida on Thursday and Friday and wind velocity forecasts that I’ve been able to examine this evening suggest winds above 25 mph at and near the Big Bend of Florida’s Gulf Coast peaking around 8 AM EDT Saturday morning.  See image below:

LEFT CLICK TO ENLARGE IMAGE

LEFT CLICK TO ENLARGE IMAGE