Archive for October 31st, 2008|Daily archive page

Florida Tropical Weather Outlook for November – 2008

LEFT CLICK TO ENLARGE IMAGE

TWO SINGLE LEFT CLICKS WILL ENLARGE IMAGE ADEQUATELY

THIS CHART IS TIME-SENSITIVE,

AS ARE MOST CHARTS PROVIDED IN THIS WEB-LOG SITE.

Vertical wind shear is defined as the change of the wind (velocity or direction or both) with changes in altitude. Vertical wind shear, particularly in velocity, is a significant factor in the probability for tropical system intensification, or weakening.  Here is a general rule of thumb on that subject: The probability of intensification increases when vertical shear is 20 knots or less – and when shear exceeds 20 knots there is a decrease in the probability of intensification.

The graphic that I have provided (above) shows the wind shear forecast for tomorrow afternoon – Saturday, November 1, 2008, Eastern Time.  I recommend two single left clicks upon the image to enlarge it adequately.  I have marked some belts of high shear and low shear and I have also placed a white arrow on the scale at the bottom of the map showing 20 knots which is about 10.29 meters per second.

It is expected that for the first half of the month high wind shear will protect Florida from storms that might develop over the typical late-season hurricane breeding sites.  If this forecast pans out, it is not likely that the Gulf Coast states will see tropical action for that portion of the month.  However, storm probabilities, with respect to vertical wind shear, may increase during the second half of the month.  Of course there are other factors – e.g. – sea surface temperatures.  I will address that soon.

Living in Florida, hurricanes are of great concern to me.  Members of my family depend upon me to provide as safe a home as possible.  Even though a storm threat seems unlikely for at least the next two weeks, and we are well into the period of steady decline in tropical weather activity, I have no intention of letting my guard down any time soon and this is what I recommend for you if you live in a hurricane-prone region.  Some very impressive storms have occurred in November.

NOTE: I have tried to help you get your bearings geographically by marking Florida – not because I felt that you couldn’t find it but because the deep color contrast obscure the geographical outlines.  I simply wanted to make it as easy for you as possible in the event your eyes are as bad as mine.  LOL