Archive for November, 2008|Monthly archive page

Paloma – the Tropical Storm Has Developed

FOR THE GREATEST ENLARGEMENT,

APPLY TWO INDEPENDENT LEFT CLICKS WITH YOUR MOUSE.

11-6-08-paloma1

Tropical Storm Paloma formed last night from Tropical Depression # 17.  Currently its maximum sustained winds are estimated at 45 mph.  It is beginning to form an eyewall.  There has been no exceptional changes in the forecast path since my last posting.

A hurricane hunter mission is in the air now and information should be available around 1:00 PM EST.

Above is a high-resolution image from the visible spectrum – completed 11:45 AM EST (about an hour ago if you are reading this at post time).

I enjoy these great images provided by the Naval Research Lab in Monterey, California.  For someone like myself, so very interested in clouds, they are so much more revealing than some of the fuzzy images we often see from other sources.

To view other postings in inverse order, simply click on the Blog button at the top of this page.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17 IS OFFICIAL

LEFT CLICK TO ENLARGE

LEFT CLICK TO ENLARGE - A SECOND LEFT CLICK WILL ENLARGE FURTHER.

It took data gathered from an Air Force hurricane reconnaissance plane to confirm today what satellite remote sensing seemed to indicate yesterday.  Invest 93L is now officially Tropical Depression 17.  Because of ambiguities in information gathered during satellite passes it is, in my opinion, good science to get on site confirmation before fully committing.  As time goes by and the technology continues to develop I’m sure the day will come when satellites peering downward measuring atmospheric and earth surface parameters, gathering information from countless data points (and levels), will provide data so accurate and uncorrupted that very few confirmations will be needed.

I have inserted (above) graphical Advisory 1 from the National Hurricane Center.

Clear Indications of Rotation with System 93L

I expect that before morning has ended tomorrow (November 5) 93L will be declared a tropical depression.  By definition, a tropical disturbance upgrades to a tropical depression once closed rotation at the surface is confirmed.

The first shows windfields from a Quiksat (satellite) pass.  The second depicts the movement of ocean waves, which for the most part, is a function of wind.

With regard to this notion/expectation that a tropical depression status will be designated, I am providing two graphics which I consider to be supportive.  Left clicks will enlarge the graphics.

Yours Truly,

Cloudman23 (Tonie Toney)

11-4-08-wind-field

11-4-08-wave-motion

NEW TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN

11-3-08-93l

A tropical disturbance is in the Southern Caribbean.  The National Hurricane Center has it labeled 93L.  My arrow is not intended to pinpoint a spot but rather to point out the impressive assemblage of clouds which already seems to show some organization.  The system takes up the entire top/middle third of the image.  Presently the NHC gives it a medium potential for further development.  I recommend that interests in Jamaica and Cuba take notice.  Also, South Florida and Bahamian residents should be mindful of its existence.

The image above is not sharp and crisp because it is an unenhanced infrared image completed late in the day after the sunlight had slipped to the west.  Left click to enlarge.

The image  below is from Florida State University.  It shows the forecast location 120 hours beyond 7 AM EST today (11-3-2008).  Projecting forward 5 days would make it 7 AM EST Saturday (11-8-2008).

THIS IS NOT A SURFACE ANALYSIS.  PLEASE, IF YOU ARE NOT FAMILIAR WITH VORTICITY OR 500 MILLIBAR ANALYSES, DON’T WORRY – I’M SHOWING YOU THIS GRAPHIC MERELY TO ILLUSTRATE FORECAST POSITIONING FROM A MODEL I ENJOY CONSULTING.

AS IN MOST IMAGES IN THIS WEB-LOG,

LEFT CLICKS SHOULD RESULT IN ENLARGEMENT.

IN THIS CASE, AS IN MANY OTHERS

TWO LEFT CLICKS SHOULD GIVE YOU MAXIMUM ENLARGEMENT.

11-3-08-93l-plus-120hr