Archive for December, 2008|Monthly archive page
The jury is still out on whether or not Florida will experience violent weather with this system. Cyclogenesis (birth of a cyclone) at the frontal boundary occurred sooner than I had expected – north of the Gulf instead of over the Gulf as I had previously speculated. My advice is to keep your eye on the weather today.
Target Area = the following Florida counties:
Levy, Citrus, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough
Event: Coastal Flood Statement Effective:18:38 CDT on 12-10-2008 Expires:09:00 CDT on 12-12-2008 Alert:
…INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES AND HIGH SURF ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT…
.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND QUICKLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND EVENTUALLY UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY TO THE NORTH IT WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE WILL HELP TO BUILD SEAS OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WILL CAUSE TIDES TO RUN SOME 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER…WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES FROM HOMOSASSA NORTH THROUGH CEDAR KEY TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER.
THESE ABOVE NORMAL TIDES MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND OVER-WASH AS WELL AS MINOR BEACH EROSION AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND STRONG UNDERTOWS AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES ALONG AREA BEACHES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG THE COAST SHOULD MONITOR WATER LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD FLOODING BE OBSERVED.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.
I personally recommend that residents of the counties mentioned above and also adjacent inland counties pay attention to the weather tomorrow (Thursday). Cyclogenesis is predicted to occur along the front over the Gulf and that could cause it to swing around rapidly – generating a dangerous squall line ahead of it. The radar image above shows a squall currently out ahead of the front itself and I have no reason to believe that it will dissipate any time soon. So – expect squally weather tomorrow and plan accordingly.
Cloudman 23 (Tonie A. Toney)