Archive for September, 2009|Monthly archive page
Graphic courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State.
LEFT CLICK GRAPHIC TO ENLARGE
and a second time to enlarge even further.
The models have a “ways to go” in order to reach what I consider a healthy agreement on Erika’s future path. My “gut-level” feeling, for what it’s worth, is that even though the storm is likely to be disturbed a great deal by shear aloft, there is a strong chance that it could reorganize (come back to life) once that shear diminishes. On the basis of some of the projections, I would not be surprised to see Erika sneeking up to near North Carolina around the 10th or 11th. Of course I hope I’m wrong. My wish, always, is that our tropical systems give us needed moisture without doing damage or causing stress and anxiety. Perhaps that’s asking too much but as the old (1938) standard song says, “I can dream, can’t I?”
THIS IS A TIME-SENSITIVE POSTING
During the next few months I will be on line only intermittently. For quick indicators about tropical weather systems I recommend the Weather Channel if you have cable and also the Masters’ Blog at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
The Masters’ Blog link is usually at the upper part of the page on the right hand side.
Please remember if you are in tropical weather territory – it doesn’t always happen to the “other guy.” And, though landfall events have not been abundant this season, 1992 was also an El Nino season with a slow start and only one hurricane made landfall upon the U.S. coast that year. ANDREW! My point? “All it takes is one!” I beg you to be prepared – even if you are far from the coast because the effects of a tropical weather system can be devastating many miles from where it makes landfall.
Here are the current potential pathway advisories on Jimena and Erika.