Archive for November, 2009|Monthly archive page

FIRE NEAR MT. MITCHELL, NORTH CAROLINA, NOV. 8, 2009

left click image twice to enlarge to the fullest

Ten days ago there was a fire near the summit of Mt. Mitchell.  The last image in this posting shows that fire’s location on the eastern side of the Black Mountain Range of North Carolina.  This beautiful country is important to me and countless others. Being near it and within its dense forested slopes has helped me to hold on to that one thin thread of sanity that keeps me functional.  Its 16 mile long J-shape is part of the beautiful Blue Ridge Province of the Appalachians. Most of the crests of the Blue Ridge trend northeast to southwest but the Blacks are among a few oriented almost perfectly from north to south. Such is the case for both limbs of the “J.” From the deck of our cabin I have spent hours gazing upon the south half of the eastern limb upon whose upper reaches  is the famous Black Mountain Crest Trail. That the surface of those formidable mountains could be threatened by fire concerns me immensely, particularly if it’s due to the carelessness of members of my own species. Lightning fits into the framework of acceptable but I have big time troubles with anyone who would walk or ride away from a campfire with embers remaining or toss a glowing cigarette aside into the freshly fallen leaves and dry needles of the understory.  In fact anyone who smokes in there any time of year would be hard pressed to get a break from me if I were in charge.

I could not begin to accurately estimate the number of people who have stood atop Mt. Mitchell at least once. Each time I’ve been there the panorama before me is different than the time before – but equally beautiful.  There are so many elements and they are ever-changing – the trees, the clouds, the wind, the temperature, the beckoning of distant old peaks worn by time from rocks that are over a billion years old. Mt. Mitchell is the highest peak in the eastern half of the United States at 6643’ but easily accessible. Between mile marker 355 and 356 on the Blue Ridge Parkway a spur road (N.C. 128) winds and twists northward for 6 miles to a parking area near Mitchell’s top. It is a well-maintained albeit narrow roadway providing access to Mt. Mitchell State Park. A handicapped accessible ascent from the parking lot will take you to the observation tower (also handicapped accessible) next to the mountain’s highest point.

Our cabin is slightly above 3000’ and 4.6 miles east of Mt. Mitchell (as the crow flies). It is modest, barely more than 1000 square feet of living area but it is a palace to me.  The “trout-supporting” South Toe River begins between the mountain and the cabin and flows northward paralleling the Black Mt. Range. The first image in this posting and the last were taken near the cabin. The one above shows Mt. Mitchell, Mt. Craig (6643’ according to a new survey), and Big Tom (6568’). I took that picture hurriedly about 100 yards upslope from the cabin where I could get a clear view of all three summits. I was not attempting to be artistic and therefore did not let the pole and lines in the foreground disturb me. My main purpose was to show you the spatial relationship between the three peaks.

I suppose that most people viewing from a similar point would consider Mt. Craig and Big Tom to be one peak but when once you get up there it’s easy to see the distinction between the two and to feel it when hiking the trail.  Here are two images that might help:


left click twice to enlarge image to the fullest

left click twice to enlarge image to the fullest

This next photo (below) was taken by a neighbor, Carole Pearson, from a point about a half mile WSW of the cabin near the Baptist Church on North Carolina 80. Carole’s interest was strictly to get a record of the fire – so likewise, wires were not a big concern for her either.

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The last photo was taken by Heath Holloway from a vantage point above the fire.  In his photograph you can also see in the distance the scars upon the landscape due to feldspar mining near Spruce Pine.

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I have searched on line and looked at local newspapers for coverage of this fire but have found nothing. It occurred on November 8, 2009 below the summit of Mt. Craig (the second highest peak in the eastern half of the United States). NOTE: There has been a long-standing debate about Clingman’s Dome in Tennessee which, to my knowledge, has not been surveyed since about 1920; some feel that it may eventually prove to be a few feet higher above sea level than Craig. By now I would think the debate is resolve but I’m ignorant on the subject.

By word of mouth I have heard that the fire was a small one (about 25 acres) and was “probably” caused by a campfire which had apparently not been properly doused or covered.  Heath Holloway (who submitted the last photo) is also unaware of the fire’s cause.  This part of the Appalachians is mostly temperate rainforest and gets more precipitation than any other forested areas in the continental U.S. other than along parts of the Olympics and Cascades. Therefore, I fear that there are many people, both visitors and locals, who are not as concerned about forest fires as they should be. Complacent might be a polite word – potentially careless would be more like it.  To my knowledge the exact circumstances concerning this fire, including who started it, are unknown. If I learn more I will update this post. If you know more I would appreciate input from you.

The Buncombe Horse Range Trail which begins at Carolina Hemlock Campground and Picnic Area leads up to the area of the fire. The event appears to have occurred along a stretch of the trail that follows an old logger’s rail bed at about the 5,800′ contour. If you look closely at the first image you can see where part of that bed sloped gently upward to the left (south) of where the fire occurred.  Though I was not in this vicinity at the time of the fire I learned from Carole that it spread fast. Thankfully, the response was relatively quick. Apparently helicopters were used to control and then extinguish it.

I know first hand that it’s very rugged up there. The last time I hiked the 5.5 mile Mt. Mitchell Trail to the top (from the Black Mountain Campground) it took me 5.5 hours up and almost 3.5 hours to return. It is difficult but beautiful country. But probably the most rugged and difficult trail I’ve ever hiked is the 11.3 mile Black Mt. Crest Trail. Mind you, I’ve hiked on many tough trails in this country including in Grand Canyon, the Sierra Nevada (including the summit of Mt. Whitney), the Tetons, etc. On one end is the Bowlens Creek segment beginning near a hairpin on N.C. 1109 near Bowlens Creek and on the other end is the parking lot near the top of Mt. Mitchell. It crosses over or near the top of a dozen peaks above 6000’ like a roller coaster. It’s tough hiking partly because the portion north of the state park is poorly maintained (if at all). When I hiked it there were places where the trail itself was somewhat elusive due to weeds growing much taller than my 6’ frame. Along certain parts of the trail hand holds are essential. By contrast, closer to Mt. Mitchell the trail is well maintained and even has some impressive stair steps of well-placed rocks.  The amount of work put into that section between Mt. Mitchell and Mt. Craig is impressive.  It’s only a mile hike northward to Mt. Craig from the trailhead on Mitchell and I highly recommend it.  The view in all directions from the top of Craig is one you would not likely forget.  Pictures don’t do it justice.

A serious error in a 1981 topographic map of the vicinity has been corrected in a 2003 map that is available at the National Forest Service Office in Burnsville. The error was in the vicinity of 6327’ Celo Knob. In 1996 that map error plus my naiveté in trusting its accuracy cost me and my 10-year-old daughter several additional hours to descend the range along Bowlens Creek. But that’s another story for later.  I expect to tell it on this site before the year is out. Suffice it to say, it was an adventure and even though we did not reach the end of the trail until 2:30 AM and I broke a few ribs – I’d do it all over again.  I don’t think my daughter, who is now 23, feels the same.


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Ida – Some Model Plots released tonight – 11-9-09

Here are some model forecasts for Ida (release time 10 PM EST.  Left click the image to enlarge.

Ida11-9-09-WU2

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IDA – FORECAST PLOT RELEASED 11-9-09 NOON CST

Ida’s most recent forecast plot as presented by WeatherUnderground.com.


Ida11-9-09-11-9-09 12nCSTLeft click the image to enlarge.

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Ida Is Weakening As Predicted – 11-9-09

The visible satellite image below is from 10:15 AM Eastern Time.  Wind shear has increased over Ida and it has moved off the warm Loop Current.  Dry air has been drawn in and has significantly disrupted the storms symmetry.  Water temperatures under her are barely enough to support a hurricane.  My source expects 50 to 60 mph winds when she makes landfall.  My advice is to consult the Weather Channel on television and/or your favorite on-line sources.

Currently, 19 ft. waves are being formed by the storm’s winds.  After watching a satellite loop showing the storms movement, I placed a blue dot as my approximation of the center.

Ida11-9-09-1015aEST

Some of the information on this site is published close to “real-time”  particularly as it applies to tropical weather.  But it is important to remember that the only “official” source of information is the National Hurricane Center. Decisions concerning life or death, property, and such should not be made based solely on the information found on this site or any other sites that are recommended here. unless they are official. Listen to your local authorities when conditions are life-threatening or there is possible loss of property.


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IDA FORECAST – 11-8-09

Some of the information on this site is published close to “real-time”  particularly as it applies to tropical weather.  But it is important to remember that the only “official” source of information is the National Hurricane Center. Decisions concerning life or death, property, and such should not be made based solely on the information found on this site or any other sites that are recommended here. unless they are official. Listen to your local authorities when conditions are life-threatening or there is possible loss of property.


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THE ENTIRE FIRST PARAGRAPH THAT FOLLOWS  IS A DIRECT QUOTE FROM DR. JEFF MASTERS (PICTURED BELOW) THAT WAS CUT AND PASTED FROM HIS WEATHER UNDERGROUND SITE; DR. MASTERS IS MY MOST RELIABLE AND DEPENDABLE SOURCE WHEN IT COMES TO TROPICAL WEATHER; HE IS A DEDICATED ‘WINNER:”  ONE REASON WHY I DEPEND SO HEAVILY UPON HIS WORK IS THAT HE IS NOT OPERATING UNDER THE CONSTRAINTS OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTER BUT HE BENEFITS FROM THEIR INTERPRETATIONS AS WELL AS FROM OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RESOURCES.  HE IS DEDICATED, “UP FRONT,” AND RESPONSIBLE.

bio_jeffm
Dr. Jeff Masters

The forecast for Ida


Posted: 10:21 AM EST on November 08, 2009


“The high wind shear of 20 – 25 knots currently affecting Ida is forecast to persist at that level until Monday night. Some slow intensification is still possible while Ida remains over the exceptionally warm water of the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico, through tonight (Figure 2). Late tonight, Ida will be crossing over waters of 26°C, which is barely enough to support a hurricane. With shear still expected to be at 20 -25 knots, I expect weakening to begin early Monday morning and accelerate on Monday afternoon. At that time, Ida will encounter 40 knots of wind shear associated with a cold front over the Gulf of Mexico, and begin transitioning to an extratropical storm. Exactly how strong Ida will be when it reaches the coast early Tuesday morning–and indeed if Ida even does reach the coast–is a forecast with high uncertainty. The computer models have a tough time forecasting the evolution of a tropical cyclone into an extratropical cyclone, and the models are all over the place on what will happen. Most of the models foresee a landfall near 1 am EST Tuesday between Mississippi and Pensacola, Florida, then a path northeastward over the Southeast U.S. However, Ida could come to halt before reaching the coast and turn west towards Tampa (the UKMET model’s forecast), or turn south back over the Gulf of Mexico (the NOGAPS model’s forecast). In any case, storm surge and heavy rain appear to be the main hazards from Ida. The GFDL model (Figure 3) is forecasting rain amounts of 4 – 8 inches for a large swath of the Gulf Coast, and there is a risk of tornadoes if the warm air from the core of Ida pushes ashore.”  END QUOTE

From my point of view, (this is Cloudman23 writing) everyone on the Gulf Coast  from Mississippi to Key West should have a “heads up” mindset while Ida is out there.  As Dr. Masters said, the computer models have a difficult time when the tropical to extratropical metamorphoses takes place.  Furthermore, the chance of tornadoes (mentioned by Dr. Masters) in association with warm, moist air from Ida and its inherent instability in such situations, this storm should not be taken lightly.

11-8-09 Ida 3pEST

Ida’s Current Model Forecasts – 11-7-09

The total amount of thermal energy at the surface in the Western Caribbean is high and wind shear aloft is relative low so it is anticipated that Ida will intensify before striking the Yucatan Peninsula.  The Yucatan does not have the type of topography that we associate with significant weakening of a storm due to friction.  But, read what Dr. Jeff Masters says this morning about the fate of Ida after she enters the Gulf of Mexico:

“Once Ida crosses into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday night, the storm will encounter much cooler SSTs and a strong trough of low pressure that will dump cold air into the storm and bring 40 knots of wind shear. This will cause Ida to lose its tropical characteristics and become a powerful extratropical storm with 45 – 55 mph winds. It is highly unlikely that Ida will hit the U.S. as a tropical storm, but it could still bring tropical storm-force winds of 45 mph to the coast next week as an extratropical storm.”

As for me, I have been favoring the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model (GFDL) for the path that Ida will take; currently,  if I had to depend upon only one of the many models, that would be the one – in most instances anyway.  I have no real science to back that up – only my perception based upon experience.  Call it a “gut level” good feeling about the model’s past performance if you will.  Therefore I expect Ida to eventually curve rightward as the GFDL shows in the plot below.  By the time it does I expect it will have lost its tropical characteristics though the winds will still be strong.  In other words, it will become extratropical.  TO GET INSTRUCTIONS ON OBTAINING THE GFDL ANIMATION CLICK ON THE FOLLOWING LINK: https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/08/30/gfdl-model-a-great-source-for-an-animation/https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/08/30/gfdl-model-a-great-source-for-an-animation/

The prefix, extra, means “outside of” or “beyond.”  Extratropical cyclones are sometimes called cold core lows whereas tropical cyclones are warm core lows.  When a tropical cyclone draws in cold air (as usually happens when a front interferes with the storm) it becomes extratropical.  The majority of the world’s extratropical cyclones develop in the middle latitudes (30 degrees to 60 degrees latitude) and for that reason are often referred to as middle latitude cyclones.

Graphic courtesy of Jonathan Vigh of the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University

11-7-09Ida

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IDA MODEL FORECASTS – 11-6-09

Thanks to the very fine work by Jonathan Vigh of the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University I am able to provide you this morning’s model forecasts for Ida.  Left click to enlarge image.

11-6-09Ida

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Gulf Coast Residents – Ida Is Worth Watching

Ida developed quickly – in fact at a record pace (see Jeff Master’s Weather Blog at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1372).

Though relatively high wind shear could prevent Ida from becoming a significant threat to the U.S. mainland it is a storm that is worth watching, partly because warm Gulf waters could nurture it.

Here is a recent forecast plot from the National Hurricane Center (left click to enlarge image):

11-5-09 ida

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