Archive for August 25th, 2010|Daily archive page


Two independent left clicks will fully enlarge the image above.  For an even larger image see the link at the end of this post.

A new tropical wave (sometimes called tropical disturbances) has moved off Africa. From my point of view, they are now being shot off that continent toward the west in the manner of a repeating rifle. If this wave becomes a named storm it will be the third Cape Verde type in a row for this season.

Based upon the computer models for Danielle, I don’t believe that she will be a threat to the U.S. mainland.  However, even though the models are also showing an eventual sharp right turn for Earl – I’m uneasy about that.  As for this new wave – it’s too soon to tell.  When tropical cyclonic storms follow each other those not in the lead often are weakened by cooler water that wells up in the wake of the front-runner.  What happens is that the leader sweeps warm surface water away and it is replaced by cooler upwelling water from deeper down.  Let’s hope this happens with these trailing storms but there are certainly no guarantees.  Conversely, when a hurricane moves over warmer water, in most cases it tends to intensify.

I indicate below the cropped full disk image my opinion that it will become a named storm within the next 7 days. I emphasize the term, “opinion.” It is to be noted that I am not a trained forecaster. Professionally my special interest was cloud dynamics. The reason why I say that the name will probably be Fiona is because there is a remote chance that something could develop in the Gulf of Mexico prior to intensification of the new African wave and thus inherit that name.

I am in the habit of cropping the full disk image before posting because it depicts half of the earth and size-wise, eats up a lot of memory. But if you would like to enjoy the latest full discs here is a link: