Archive for September 6th, 2010|Daily archive page

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE FORECAST, 9-9-2010

NOTE: the CDO to which the following report refers to is “Central Dense Overcast.”

THE FOLLOWING REPORT WAS TAKEN VERBATIM FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER’S WEBSITE.  IT WAS RELEASED AT 10 PM EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME, 9-9-2010

000WTNT45 KNHC 070235TCDAT5TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010

1000 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

THE CENTER OF HERMINE MADE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF NORTHEAST MEXICOAROUND 0130 UTC. PRIOR TO LANDFALL…SATELLITE DATA SHOWED THEFORMATION OF A CDO-LIKE FEATURE…WITH A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTIONALSO LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 2333UTC SHOWED A PEAK 850-MB WIND OF 61 KT…WITH SFMR VALUES UP TO 56KT. DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR EARLIER INDICATED PEAKWINDS OF ABOUT 75 KT AT 4000 FT. THESE DATA SUGGEST THE LANDFALLINTENSITY WAS ABOUT 55 KT. SINCE LANDFALL…THE VELOCITIES FROM THEBROWNSVILLE RADAR HAVE DECREASED…AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED ISLOWERED TO 50 KT. AS HERMINE WEAKENS…THE BIGGEST THREAT WILLSHIFT TO FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO TEXAS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/12. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECASTREASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HERMINE SHOULD MOVENORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERYOF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT DAY ORSO. THEREAFTER…THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE WILL LIKELY TURN TOWARDTHE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IN A COUPLEOF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE RIDES AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THATRIDGE. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST IN GOODAGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.


Gaston’s Remnant Could Redevelop Soon – 9-6-2010

RELEASED 8 AM EDT TODAY 9-6-2010

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON...LOCATED
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

The remains of Gaston don’t look like much this morning on the satellite imagery, but as you just read, there is a strong chance that it will redevelop into a tropical cyclonic system soon.  It is already cyclonic (loop imagery has been showing rotation for several hours now) but Weather Service experts are not ready to declare it a tropical depression on the basis of the very limited amount of current thunderstorm development.  But that is likely to change soon.  My feeling is that since it is of tropical origin and it is rotating – it should be designated a depression at this moment – but what do I know?  LOL

Unfortunately, as you can see, the models seem to favor its moving south of Hispaniola and Cuba.  This means, of course, that it’s bound for the Gulf of Mexico unless a decidedly sharp turn to the north were to occur before entering that body.  As usual, I recommend that you ignore the CLP5 model. The bottom line is that former Gaston deserves our attention.