Archive for June, 2011|Monthly archive page
Here is the forecast plot for our first tropical disturbance of the season – released at 1200 Greenwich Time (7AM Eastern Time) June 1, 2011 – the first official day of the season. These are sometimes called spaghetti charts. Please ignore the “straight line” projection into the Gulf which is an extrapolation of movement were there to be no change in course. Already, I’ve detected rightward deflection in its actual track. Two left clicks should fully enlarge this image for you.
Below is a “cut and paste” from the National Hurricane Center’s report for the first day of the hurricane season, 2011. There is a low pressure system in the Atlantic now making a beeline for my part of Florida and expected to be here around 1 PM. Item 1 below is the discussion of that system. At the very end of this posting you will find a link to the page from which this information was cut. If the graphic you first see is not the satellite image, just left click on it and it should change for you.
My daughter is visiting from New Mexico and this is the day that she and I were to have gone sailing. However – that activity has been canceled and my “little girl” is sleeping in. There was a time in my life when I was more daring and would have gone out anyway – working hard to strategically find safe shelter and counting on lots of luck. But now in my 72nd year I am one to err on the side a caution. The aluminum mast supported by a steel fore-stay and two steel shrouds all serve as excellent lightning attractors. I do not wish for my daughter (or myself for that matter) to become a “crispy critter.” The fun is not worth the risks. So we will find something else to do. The tiny red dot on the image below approximates where I live in Florida and the system is traveling toward the west-southwest. Left click on the image to enlarge.
From my point of view, this is a fitting “sign” that our hurricane season this year is likely to be a busy one. The post that follows this one will link you to a description of the NOAA summary of this years forecast.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH. THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 11...6...AND 2...RESPECTIVELY. THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2011 IS AS FOLLOWS: NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION ------------------------------------------------------------- ARLENE AR LEEN- LEE LEE BRET BRET MARIA MUH REE- UH CINDY SIN- DEE NATE NAIT DON DAHN OPHELIA O FEEL- YA EMILY EH- MIH LEE PHILIPPE FEE LEEP- FRANKLIN FRANK- LIN RINA REE- NUH GERT GERT SEAN SHAWN HARVEY HAR- VEE TAMMY TAM- EE IRENE EYE REEN- VINCE VINSS JOSE HO ZAY- WHITNEY WHIT- NEE KATIA KA TEE- AH THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 2 AM...8 AM...2 PM...AND 8 PM EDT. AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE 1 AM...7 AM...1 PM...AND 7 PM EST. A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE UPDATES ...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS. A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION... AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES ...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUAT1-5. ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. SIGN UP FOR PRODUCT UPDATES BY EMAIL AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/SIGNUP.SHTML...IN ALL LOWER CASE. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT WITH US ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONALHURRICANECENTER.GOV. $$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH NNNN Here is a link to the National Hurricane Center Home Page: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml