Forecast Model Plots for Our First Tropical System of the Season – 2011

Here is the forecast plot for our first tropical disturbance of the season – released at 1200 Greenwich Time (7AM Eastern Time) June 1, 2011 – the first official day of the season.  These are sometimes called spaghetti charts.  Please ignore the “straight line” projection into the Gulf which is an extrapolation of movement were there to be no change in course.  Already, I’ve detected rightward deflection in its actual track.  Two left clicks should fully enlarge this image for you.

Click on Image to Enlarge

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DAY ONE OF HURRICANE SEASON IS INTERESTING!

Below is a “cut and paste” from the National Hurricane Center’s report for the first day of the hurricane season, 2011.  There is a low pressure system in the Atlantic now making a beeline for my part of Florida and expected to be here around 1 PM.  Item 1 below is the discussion of that system.  At the very end of this posting you will find a link to the page from which this information was cut.  If the graphic you first see is not the satellite image, just left click on it and it should change for you.

My daughter is visiting from New Mexico and this is the day that she and I were to have gone sailing.  However – that activity has been canceled and my “little girl” is sleeping in.  There was a time in my life when I was more daring and would have gone out anyway – working hard to strategically find safe shelter and counting on lots of luck.  But now in my 72nd year I am one to err on the side a caution.  The aluminum mast supported by a steel fore-stay and two steel shrouds all serve as excellent lightning attractors.  I do not wish for my daughter (or myself for that matter) to become a “crispy critter.”  The fun is not worth the risks.  So we will find something else to do.  The tiny red dot on the image below approximates where I live in Florida and the system is traveling toward the west-southwest.  Left click on the image to enlarge.

From my point of view, this is a fitting “sign” that our hurricane season this year is likely to be a busy one.  The post that follows this one will link you to a description of the NOAA summary of this years forecast.

Left Click To Enlarge

 
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH. 
THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH
WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF
NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 11...6...AND
2...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2011 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ARLENE AR LEEN- LEE LEE
BRET BRET MARIA MUH REE- UH
CINDY SIN- DEE NATE NAIT
DON DAHN OPHELIA O FEEL- YA
EMILY EH- MIH LEE PHILIPPE FEE LEEP-
FRANKLIN FRANK- LIN RINA REE- NUH
GERT GERT SEAN SHAWN
HARVEY HAR- VEE TAMMY TAM- EE
IRENE EYE REEN- VINCE VINSS
JOSE HO ZAY- WHITNEY WHIT- NEE
KATIA KA TEE- AH

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE
TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 2 AM...8 AM...2 PM...AND 8 PM EDT. 
AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES
ARE 1 AM...7 AM...1 PM...AND 7 PM EST.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE UPDATES
...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED ISSUANCES OF
THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS
WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE REGULAR
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY
PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUAT1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. SIGN UP FOR PRODUCT
UPDATES BY EMAIL AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/SIGNUP.SHTML...IN ALL LOWER
CASE. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT WITH US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONALHURRICANECENTER.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
NNNN

Here is a link to the National Hurricane Center Home Page: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml