Archive for August 24th, 2011|Daily archive page

Forecast for Irene by the European Model – posted 8-24-2011

This posting is time-sensitive and is now out of date.  For step by step instructions on access to an animated loop of the most current ECMWF (“European”) model go to the following link:  https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2011/08/25/ecmwf-model-run-the-european-model/

Hurricane Irene is now a category 3 storm.

IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE PUBLISHED CONE OF UNCERTAINTY IT WOULD BE FOOLISH TO IGNORE THIS STORM EVEN THOUGH YOU MIGHT NOT BE CLOSE TO WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY PREDICTED TO GO.  That is not just my opinion but also the opinion of National Weather Service forecasters.

TO FIND THE MOST RECENT CONE OF UNCERTAINTY DEPICTION, GO TO THE RIGHT-HAND MARGIN OF THIS PAGE AND UNDER “TROPICAL WEATHER” CLICK ON “NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME.

The graphic that follows is a 72 hour (3 day) forecast position that originated at 0000 Greenwich Time on the 24th (which is 2000 hours on the 23rd EDT time – or 8 pm).   The path that this European Model predicts correspond closely with today’s official forecast track of the National Weather Service.

On this graphic, and most on this site, two independent left clicks will enlarge to the fullest.  The poorness of the resolution is due to considerable enlargement from the original.

2 LEFT CLICKS FOR FULL ENLARGEMENT