Archive for September, 2017|Monthly archive page
ALL O.K. – Irma Update – Cloudman23’s Florida Family
We and all family members (including animal members) are O.K. No damage to our home. Much debris to clean up but no hurry for that. Helping others is high on the list. All neighbors and friends are O.K. as far as I can tell. In this house the comfort level increased significantly about five hours ago and I’ll take credit for it (just joking about the taking credit part). Here’s the tale: I felt terrible for not having the American flag on display yesterday especially since it was 9-11. That date certainly didn’t escape me. But it was still too windy. I put it out in all of its glory at 12:37 pm today and our electricity came back at 12:38. So the air conditioner is on, the refrigerators and freezers are working and we now have water. And obviously we have an Internet connection. And most important of all, my father-in-law has Fox News (the only station his television set receives). I guess I should have put the flag out sooner!
Posting Mainly for Family and Friends – Irma pre-arrival report
This is probably nearing the end of my having an Internet connection. We are are ready as we can be at this point. All it’s going to take is one limb on a power line nearby. I suppose there is more that we could have done but time has run out. For example we don’t have a generator. I’m sure that we will lose electrical power and that means no water since we have a well. We have a considerable amount of water stored for drinking, spit baths, and minimal toilet flushing. We have a weather radio and an AM/FM radio both with battery backup. We have storm protection on each window, and strong garage doors. The 45 minutes or less it takes us to secure the storm shutters turned into 6 hours. For a while I didn’t think I’d be able to make them secure at all. I could not figure out the problem and was beginning to jury rig. Then Terrie (brighter than me) realized that when we had the house painted earlier this year, the painters must have gotten their sealer into both the locking rods and the key locks. Without them, the shutters would just flop around! I was strongly reminded that “The best laid schemes o’ mice an’ men / Gang aft a-gley” as Robert Burns reminds us in his poem “To A Mouse.” Gang aft a-gley = often go astray. That was yesterday for sure. It took a lot of time and a lot of solvent to get things working! I had been so full of pride and satisfaction for having the sense, in 2005, to invest in shutters (instead of other things I would have rather had) but those convenient, costly things were a lot of work this time. We were exhausted. I just took it for granted that it would be an easy job as usual. Duhhhhhhhhh
Tonie
Hurricane Irma Entry – 9-7-2017
The image above is from the NOAA National Hurricane Center. It is the 8 PM EDT Intermediate Advisory for hurricane Irma.
Here is a link to that site: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
I have no particular “feel” for the path that this storm is going to take. It appears that my “zinger” notion yesterday for a right turn greater than the experts were anticipating might have been about as meaningful as a small rat’s flatulence in a Fujita-5 tornado. But, I’m still clinging to hope.
The mass migration from South Florida is effecting us here in Citrus County. Log-jammed I-75 is about 17 miles due east of my home. Today I took my father-in-law to our “late breakfast” in Inverness where we get together weekly with some other buddies. The drive home northward on U.S. 41 involved extreme congestion. What was happening is this: Some northbound traffic on I-75 was exiting at eastbound U.S. 44 and driving on in to Inverness before heading back north on 41 – many probably guided by the GPS features in their vehicles. Sadly, even before that started happening, our gas stations were on empty.
I understand from television news that lodging in Florida is getting extremely difficult to find. Even in Atlanta, I-75 has been experiencing overload. This is one reason why we are not migrating. I fear we would end up in a traffic jam of monumental proportions.
So, I’m hoping that the morning brings favorable news. My wish is that this storm goes out into the open Atlantic leaving us all in peace. But, that is most certainly NOT in the forecast. As each hour passes, such a lucky turn seems more and more like an irrational fantasy. My heart goes out to all of those who are traveling tonight – not knowing what they will be returning to once this is all over. Actually, my heart goes out to everyone threatened by this storm. I remember clearly what it was like returning to our totaled home in Homestead, Florida after Andrew plowed through on August 24, 1992. That event changed our lives forever. Driving in we hardly recognized the scene. Even the street signs were down! Because of debris we were unable to get down our street in my van. Paradoxically, only one pane of glass on our house was damaged and that was a mere crack. It was something that could have been easily taped to prevent air from getting through until I got around to replacing it. You see, we had storm shutters on every window. The trouble is, the roof failed! So much for preparedness. LOL I admit that I have higher hopes this time; every window of this Citrus County home is protected also and it was surely built to a higher standard. We’ll see.
I won’t go into specifics but, as has happened so many times in the past, I was surprised today by a few of the misconceptions about hurricanes that I heard expressed while I was out and about. For those of you who are interested in common misconceptions about hurricanes, here is a link:
https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/09/23/952/
IRMA POSTING – PLUS
– click mouse twice for full enlargement of this image –
FIRST ENTRY IN MORE THAN A YEAR – 9-6-2017
I apologize to those few of you who have been consulting this weblog. My last posting was August 31, 2016. I’m still going strong and my interest has not waned. I’m still in the learning mode and intend to stay there. But it’s been a long time since I retired from teaching full-time college geosciences in 2003 and a lot has changed. I continued adjunct teaching after I retired but then moved away from South Florida in 2005. From 2006 into 2013 I taught 14 short-term courses at the College of Central Florida. Interest in this weblog seems to have diminished since I stopped formal teaching. However, when I checked this site this morning I saw that it has gotten tons of hits over the last few days, probably due to hurricane Irma. Prior to this current event almost all geoscience questions and observations that have come my way have been from a few family members, a few neighbors, and one buddy at church. It is very rare for me to hear from former students.
In-so-far as weather reporting is concerned, the information available to the public has blossomed since I retired and, for the most part, its quality has improved to the point that there is little if anything I can add (beyond basics). Many of my notions concerning tropical weather events fall into the category of hunches or intuition. I don’t believe that my 37 years of teaching meteorology full-time gives me license to clutter minds with my ideas unless I’m honest about them. Instead, in the comments below about Irma, I will share the four tropical weather resources I consult most often.
I am planning a change of theme and/or purpose for this site soon – more in the realm of discovery, opinions, observations, analyses, experiences, and perhaps some attempts at humor. The “About” page for this site was updated earlier today and if you wish to contact me, you will find my address there.
MY INPUT ON OUR CURRENT TROPICAL WEATHER
WHICH IS BEING DOMINATED BY HURRICANE IRMA.
My four primary resources are:
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Dr. Jeff Masters’ weblog (blog) at WeatherUnderground.com. It can be found here: https://wwwwunderground.com/cat6
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The Weather Channel on television and on-line – including apps. There are things about the Weather Channel presentations I don’t like. Nevertheless I appreciate the convenience and their efforts.
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The National Hurricane Center. I go to this site to get a grip on what is going on in their world. I consider that they might tend to err on the side of caution, subconsciously at the very least. What an awesome responsibility they have. Http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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The ECMWF Model – commonly referred to as the European Model.
I rely upon it heavily because of it’s premier reputation due to its accuracy over the last few years. It has done well for the “Irma type” storms. To be sure, I don’t ignore the other models. The following paragraph is for those who have been trying to understand that model.
You are likely to have heard many references to the European Model. I admit it is confusing. For example, here is a quote from Dr. Jeff Masters. “The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from other major models.” Thus, even though on television or on-line you may see comparisons of the European Model to the myriad other models, you might have noticed that it’s not included in the spaghetti charts that show models from multiple sources. What you will see is either the European “operational” model track or the European Ensemble (a spaghetti graphic). For that spaghetti ensemble the operational model is re-run at a lower resolution (called the control run) and this is then repeated 50 times, each with slightly different starting conditions.
I get my favorite animated European model track from Penn State’s Department of Meteorology at http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html
Please note that this link is time-sensitive.
Of the four charts, I focus upon the one on the upper right as I scroll through f24 through f240 ( which means “24 hours into the future” through “240 hours into the future”).
You might fry your brain with the time signatures on the bottom – depending upon your comfort level with time at the prime meridian (Universal, Greenwich, Zulu) and your knowledge of Victor time.
THE CORIOLIS EFFECT
I’ve been thinking all day long about the Coriolis Effect as it relates to Irma. If you are my former student you might recall that the steering currents at high altitude are, in part, a function of the Coriolis Effect (the Penn State chart on the upper left) and I’ll bet you remember that the counterclockwise circulation of Irma is due to the Coriolis Effect. If you’re still sharp on the subject you might also remember that the outflow at the top of the storm is likely to be clockwise for the same reason – the Coriolis Effect. I know that sounds like a contradiction to those of you who are unfamiliar with this subject. If you are interested in the Coriolis Effect go here:
https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/10/02/the-coriolis-effect-in-the-real-world-a-tutorial-part-1/
and here:
MY NOTIONS TODAY ABOUT IRMA
Here is my zinger that comes from the “gut level” and is therefore probably not deserving of any classification other than “pure speculation.” (That’s the honesty I referred to in the second paragraph of this blog).
I am expecting (or is it hoping and praying for?) slightly more turning to the right than the experts are indicating. The itty-bitty turn last night was encouraging to me. I keep telling myself that the hurricane is a separate entity of its own and that the Coriolis Effect is influencing it’s path independent of the steering currents and the rotational motion. That path is the consequence of what is referred to as translational motion. Furthermore, the further north the storm gets, the stronger the Coriolis Effect will be. The Coriolis Effect is zero at the equator and increases to 100% at the poles. Maybe I’m just overly excited about last night’s noticeable veering of Irma’s path. Perhaps this is merely a good example of wishful thinking. We’ll see.
FOR CITRUS COUNTY, FLORIDA
Finally, for those of you who live in my county of Florida, Citrus, you might be interested in this August 2014 posting about hurricanes.
https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2014/08/22/citrus-county-florida-and-hurricanes/