Archive for the ‘August Hurricane Forecast’ Category

NEW TROPICAL WAVE OFF AFRICA – 8-25-2010

Two independent left clicks will fully enlarge the image above.  For an even larger image see the link at the end of this post.

A new tropical wave (sometimes called tropical disturbances) has moved off Africa. From my point of view, they are now being shot off that continent toward the west in the manner of a repeating rifle. If this wave becomes a named storm it will be the third Cape Verde type in a row for this season.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Verde-type_hurricane

Based upon the computer models for Danielle, I don’t believe that she will be a threat to the U.S. mainland.  However, even though the models are also showing an eventual sharp right turn for Earl – I’m uneasy about that.  As for this new wave – it’s too soon to tell.  When tropical cyclonic storms follow each other those not in the lead often are weakened by cooler water that wells up in the wake of the front-runner.  What happens is that the leader sweeps warm surface water away and it is replaced by cooler upwelling water from deeper down.  Let’s hope this happens with these trailing storms but there are certainly no guarantees.  Conversely, when a hurricane moves over warmer water, in most cases it tends to intensify.

I indicate below the cropped full disk image my opinion that it will become a named storm within the next 7 days. I emphasize the term, “opinion.” It is to be noted that I am not a trained forecaster. Professionally my special interest was cloud dynamics. The reason why I say that the name will probably be Fiona is because there is a remote chance that something could develop in the Gulf of Mexico prior to intensification of the new African wave and thus inherit that name.

I am in the habit of cropping the full disk image before posting because it depicts half of the earth and size-wise, eats up a lot of memory. But if you would like to enjoy the latest full discs here is a link:

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/overview2/color_lrg/latestfull.jpg


TODAY’S TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE ATLANTIC 8-24-2010

Though this is probably not news to you – as predicted in the previous posting – activity is picking up out there.  That should be no surprise considering the time of the year.  Once again, I urge you to be prepared for the eventualities of tropical weather if you live in hurricane country.   Having experienced the destruction and aftermath of hurricane Andrew, I can assure you that it doesn’t always happen to “the other guy (or gal)!”

In my family we find that no matter what plans we make – we must not be surprised or angry or disappointed if Mother Nature decides to inconvenience us.  In my opinion it is important to take one day at a time while doing our best to enjoy life and to be of service to others.

Please count on having to be self-sufficient for a while if a damaging/disruptive storm should come through.  When the little things we take for granted are taken away – our lives can suddenly undergo a drastic change.  For example, after Andrew we had no electricity for over 6 weeks.  In spite of the fact that the majority of people who came down to Homestead to help our community were wonderful and extremely well-intentioned – there were some real opportunists too.  A case in point: Generators were trucked down and sold from the back of the trailers for more than 5 times their suggested retail price – cash only – on the line!  The 25′ travel trailer I bought to live in (our house was a total loss) cost $12,995 in our part of Florida before the storm and $17,995 after the storm.  The good news is that my son-in-law found the same model for me from the dealer in Knoxville who sold it to us for $10,000 – and that included delivering it to my driveway in Homestead and showing me the ropes on how to operate the things I knew nothing about.  He and his wife told us that when watching television in the comfort of their home they had been hoping that something would come up where they could be of significant help to a family.  What special people they are!

Only one window was broken by the storm in our home and that was merely a crack.  Why?  We had them all protected with storm shutters.  But – the roof failed!  The shutters don’t protect the contents of a house when the roof comes off – LOL.

A friend of mine who worked at Turkey Point Nuclear Power Plant had quit drinking a couple of years prior to hurricane Andrew.  When I saw him a few days after the storm he told me how happy he was that he had quit because had he been drinking he would have merely sat in his recliner with a bottle (or bottles) and tried to ride out the storm in some state of oblivion.  He said that the storm had moved that recliner 8 yards from its spot in his family room.  I thought to myself, “8 yards – 24 feet – sure – I can visualize that happening – easily.  After all – his family room was the biggest room in the house.  BUT – what he meant was 8 “yards!”  Yes – the chair had been repositioned 8 houses down the street coming to rest in someone else’s back yard.

Atlantic Hurricane Season – Please Be Alert – 8-19-2010

We are entering the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.  If you have not been influence by tropical activity thus far this year you might be under the impression that it’s an inactive season.  That would not be true.  Statistically, it has been about average to date. Though we cannot “plan the future” I feel strongly that we should plan “FOR” certain eventualities in the future.  I urge you to be prepared and alert in the event that a tropical system comes your way.

The following statement in “blue” was taken Verbatim Thursday morning (8-19-2010) from the Dr. Jeff Masters web-log found at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/.

“The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 – 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 – 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 – 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 – 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn’t even formed yet are not to be trusted.”

I have taken the liberty of trimming the latest full disc color satellite image down to a manageable size where you can still easily find Florida and thus look across the Atlantic to see the area of disturbed weather off Africa to which Dr. Masters refers. Two independent left clicks on this image will enlarge it fully. This image was taken from a distance over three earth diameters away from the surface yet there is considerable detail.  I hope you enjoy it.


TROPICAL STORM COLIN – 8-3-2010

The most recent Atlantic disturbance has evolved into a tropical storm.  Here is Colin’s general forecast track released at 5 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, August 3, 2010. Left click on the image to enlarge.

ANA, BILL, AND CLAUDETTE!

zAnaBillClaudett38-16-09

To have this current explosion of activity in the Gulf and Atlantic after so many quiet weeks is a real attention-getter.  Most recently, a tropical system off the Florida panhandle has developed into a tropical storm.  In the meantime Ana and Bill out in the Atlantic are both commanding attention.

Tropical systems are not all bad, particularly when the wind velocities are not too high and this is because they can provide much needed precipitation.  Let’s hope that these three systems prove to be more of an advantage than anything else.  So many people are reminded of Andrew in 1992, another year in which El Nino was a  factor.  Andrew was the only hurricane to make landfall in the U.S.A. that season but he was a whopper and there are many people yet today who will testify that it changed their lives – myself included.

I am likely to be inactive on this site for the next few days for two reasons.  My laptop is behaving badly and either needs some serious attention (like a new hard drive) or I need to bite the bullet and get another machine.  Also – I will be traveling.  For those of you who know me – don’t be alarmed.  The traveling has nothing to do with the current tropical weather activity.

In the meantime if you want to stay on top of things weatherwise I recommend the Weather Channel if you have cable and also the Masters’ Blog at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

The Masters’ Blog link is usually at the upper part of the page on the right hand side.

Peace be with you!

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Hurricane Outlook for August 2009

8-2-09 latestfullNotice the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone

to the north of the Equator this time of year.

Left clicks should enlarge this image for you.

Dr. Jeff Masters is my primary source for hurricane information.  His is a hard act to follow.  Therefore, I refer you to his “August Hurricane Outlook” discussion released on August 1, 2009.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1267

If you wish to see other posts

on this web-log but are unable,

please click on the “blog” tab near the top of this page.