Archive for the ‘Forecast charts’ Category

OFFICIAL IRENE FORECAST – CONE OF UNCERTAINTY – FRIDAY 8 PM EDT

TWO LEFT CLICKS FOR TOTAL ENLARGEMENT

This is self-explanatory.  If you are anywhere within the cone of uncertainty please do not be careless in your thinking.  Stay alert, keep a clear head, and do not allow that epidemic disease, terminal uniqueness, to cause you to think that “it” always happens to the other guy (or gal).  Do not take any unnecessary chances.  Be patient, use common sense, and remember that this too shall pass.

My thoughts are with you.

For previous reports go to the blog tab near the upper left of the page and then scroll down.

Advertisements

ECMWF MODEL RUN – THE EUROPEAN MODEL

When the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast model is running, here is my favorite site for viewing:

For a lot of different reasons, but mainly because I enjoy the insights of Dr. Jeff Masters in his weather blog, I use WeatherUnderground.com.  For future reference, a link to his blog is under the Blogroll category at the right margin of this page.  In fact, it’s the first listed.

For the ECMWF Model Run, click on the following link and then follow my instructions exactly:  NOTE:  YOU MIGHT WANT TO COPY THE INSTRUCTIONS BECAUSE ONCE YOU CLICK ON THE LINK THIS PAGE WILL BE GONE UNLESS YOU CLICK BACK –

 

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

  1. At the upper left of the image, click on the “continent” tab.
  2. Scroll down the menu on the right margin and click in the box labeled “model data”.
  3. Another menu dropped down. Click on the “model” arrow and select ECMWF.
  4. Make sure the “map type” remains on MSL which stands for “mean sea level.”
  5. Click on the “forecast” arrow and wait patiently for the load.
  6. After it has loaded fully it should loop. If you want it to stop click on the button at “forecast.”

Though the European Model is not always right (none of them are) it has done the best job for the last two years in situations akin to this one with hurricane Irene.  The National Weather Service gives credence to this model though you will not see it indicated on the official spaghetti charts and such.  In fact, lately, the NWS official forecasts have been close to that of the ECMWF model runs or, if you please, the ECMWF model runs have been close to the official forecasts of the NWS.  To be sure, there will be times when there is little agreement – at which time I expect to lean toward the NWS advisories.

Forecast for Irene by the European Model – posted 8-24-2011

This posting is time-sensitive and is now out of date.  For step by step instructions on access to an animated loop of the most current ECMWF (“European”) model go to the following link:  https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2011/08/25/ecmwf-model-run-the-european-model/

Hurricane Irene is now a category 3 storm.

IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE PUBLISHED CONE OF UNCERTAINTY IT WOULD BE FOOLISH TO IGNORE THIS STORM EVEN THOUGH YOU MIGHT NOT BE CLOSE TO WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY PREDICTED TO GO.  That is not just my opinion but also the opinion of National Weather Service forecasters.

TO FIND THE MOST RECENT CONE OF UNCERTAINTY DEPICTION, GO TO THE RIGHT-HAND MARGIN OF THIS PAGE AND UNDER “TROPICAL WEATHER” CLICK ON “NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME.

The graphic that follows is a 72 hour (3 day) forecast position that originated at 0000 Greenwich Time on the 24th (which is 2000 hours on the 23rd EDT time – or 8 pm).   The path that this European Model predicts correspond closely with today’s official forecast track of the National Weather Service.

On this graphic, and most on this site, two independent left clicks will enlarge to the fullest.  The poorness of the resolution is due to considerable enlargement from the original.

2 LEFT CLICKS FOR FULL ENLARGEMENT

Early U.S. Landfall forecast for Irene by the European Model – 8-23-2011

 

 

 

 

This posting is time-sensitive and is now out of date.  For step by step instructions on access to an animated loop of the most current ECMWF (“European”) model go to the following link:  https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2011/08/25/ecmwf-model-run-the-european-model/

 

 

Mind you, I am not formally trained in forecasting.  I am conveying to you what I am deriving from others and when I include my personal opinion I try to make that clear.  Also, very small changes in course can make a huge change in the location of a storm’s landfall, particularly when it is so far out as is Irene this moment.  For example, I am in West-Central Florida, 17 miles inland from the Gulf of Mexico but none-the-less, you can bet your sweet bippie that I’m on the alert.  SO IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE PUBLISHED CONE OF UNCERTAINTY IT WOULD BE FOOLISH TO IGNORE THIS STORM EVEN THOUGH YOU MIGHT NOT BE CLOSE TO WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY PREDICTED TO GO.  That is not just my opinion but also the opinion of National Weather Service forecasters.

TO FIND THE MOST RECENT CONE OF UNCERTAINTY DEPICTION, GO TO THE RIGHT-HAND MARGIN OF THIS PAGE AND UNDER “TROPICAL WEATHER” CLICK ON “NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME.

Over the last two years the European Model has done the best at predicting the paths of tropical systems under these particular circumstances.  The graphic that follows is a 5 day forecast position that originated at 0000 Greenwich Time on the 23rd (which is 2000 hours on the 22nd EDT time – or 8 pm).  A lot can happen in 5 days so take this for what it’s worth.  This does correspond closely with determinations made by the National Weather Service today.

I will check the next run (they occur at 0000 and 1200 or twice a day – Greenwich Time) and if there is a significant change I will post it.

On this graphic, and most on this site, two independent left clicks will enlarge to the fullest.

IRENE – SPAGHETTI CHART – 8-22-2011 NEAR MIDNIGHT EDT

THIS IS A TIME-SENSITIVE POSTING SUBMITTED 8-22-2011 AFTER 11 PM EASTERN TIME.

 

 

Hurricane Irene is now of GREAT CONCERN to the Bahamas.  Based upon my observation of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting) model  – it now looks as though South Carolina or North Carolina could be the landfall site though the statistical mean mid-line continues to “windshield-wiper” to the east.

Here is Jonathan Vigh’s spaghetti chart effort releases at 8 pm Eastern Daylight Time, 8-22-2011.  The numbers along the forecast model tracks are “hours from the forecast release time.” OFCL is the designation for “official.”  The OFCL is remarkably close to the ECMWF model track which does not show on this graphic.  To observe it, go to my “Tropical Weather” links to the right of this page and click on “Penn. State U. Models Page.”

THIS IS NOW A SERIOUS CAT. 2  HURRICANE WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING.

Graphic courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University

– LEFT CLICK THE GRAPHIC TWICE FOR MAXIMUM ENLARGEMENT –

Irene Is Now a Hurricane – 8-22-2011

PLEASE NOTE – THIS IS A TIME-SENSITIVE POSTING

Below is the 11 am (Eastern Daylight Time) cone of uncertainty for hurricane Irene from the National Hurricane Center.  Remember, only minor shifts toward the west or east can change the complexion of things drastically.  Such changes are common – in fact, some meteorologists refer to resultant realignments of the spreading cone as “windshield wipering.”  Left click the image twice for full enlargement.

LEFT CLICK TWICE FOR FULL ENLARGEMENT

TROPICAL SYSTEM 91L. A 5 DAY PLUS FORECAST BY THE GFDL MODEL.

THANKS TO PENN STATE UNIVERSITY DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY FOR THIS GRAPHIC.

 Left clicks on this graphic should enlarge it for you.

THIS IS A TIME-SENSITIVE POSTING SUBMITTED 7-30-2011 LATE EVENING.

This is the GFDL model’s forecast for system 91L 126 hours from the 2 PM Eastern time release (today 7-30-2011).  Note that it is shown to be north of Eastern Cuba.  I calculate the forecast time to be 5.25 days (or 5 days and 6 hours) beyond the release time.  That would be Thursday, August 4 at 8 PM Eastern time.  This, of course is a forecast loaded with unknowns and fickle variables so one should not consider it a “given.”  The GFDL model (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) has impressed me over the last few years.  I’m posting this now so that perhaps on Thursday night you might want to check to see how close it is.  This posting is not intended to alarm anyone needlessly.  If you are in a position where you like to plan ahead and are potentially in the path of tropical systems from the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, I advise you to pay close attention to forecasts available to you.  It is my opinion that the Weather Channel on television does a great job covering tropical weather and I highly recommend it as a source.   Also, on the right hand margin of this page under Miscellaneous/Other you will find a link to the on-line Weather Channel.  I also highly recommend the tropical weather blog of Dr. Jeff Masters.  Here is a link:  http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

Forecast Model Plots for Our First Tropical System of the Season – 2011

Here is the forecast plot for our first tropical disturbance of the season – released at 1200 Greenwich Time (7AM Eastern Time) June 1, 2011 – the first official day of the season.  These are sometimes called spaghetti charts.  Please ignore the “straight line” projection into the Gulf which is an extrapolation of movement were there to be no change in course.  Already, I’ve detected rightward deflection in its actual track.  Two left clicks should fully enlarge this image for you.

Click on Image to Enlarge

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE FORECAST, 9-9-2010

NOTE: the CDO to which the following report refers to is “Central Dense Overcast.”

THE FOLLOWING REPORT WAS TAKEN VERBATIM FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER’S WEBSITE.  IT WAS RELEASED AT 10 PM EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME, 9-9-2010

000WTNT45 KNHC 070235TCDAT5TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010

1000 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

THE CENTER OF HERMINE MADE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF NORTHEAST MEXICOAROUND 0130 UTC. PRIOR TO LANDFALL…SATELLITE DATA SHOWED THEFORMATION OF A CDO-LIKE FEATURE…WITH A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTIONALSO LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 2333UTC SHOWED A PEAK 850-MB WIND OF 61 KT…WITH SFMR VALUES UP TO 56KT. DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR EARLIER INDICATED PEAKWINDS OF ABOUT 75 KT AT 4000 FT. THESE DATA SUGGEST THE LANDFALLINTENSITY WAS ABOUT 55 KT. SINCE LANDFALL…THE VELOCITIES FROM THEBROWNSVILLE RADAR HAVE DECREASED…AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED ISLOWERED TO 50 KT. AS HERMINE WEAKENS…THE BIGGEST THREAT WILLSHIFT TO FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO TEXAS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/12. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECASTREASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HERMINE SHOULD MOVENORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERYOF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT DAY ORSO. THEREAFTER…THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE WILL LIKELY TURN TOWARDTHE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IN A COUPLEOF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE RIDES AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THATRIDGE. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST IN GOODAGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.


TODAY’S TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE ATLANTIC 8-24-2010

Though this is probably not news to you – as predicted in the previous posting – activity is picking up out there.  That should be no surprise considering the time of the year.  Once again, I urge you to be prepared for the eventualities of tropical weather if you live in hurricane country.   Having experienced the destruction and aftermath of hurricane Andrew, I can assure you that it doesn’t always happen to “the other guy (or gal)!”

In my family we find that no matter what plans we make – we must not be surprised or angry or disappointed if Mother Nature decides to inconvenience us.  In my opinion it is important to take one day at a time while doing our best to enjoy life and to be of service to others.

Please count on having to be self-sufficient for a while if a damaging/disruptive storm should come through.  When the little things we take for granted are taken away – our lives can suddenly undergo a drastic change.  For example, after Andrew we had no electricity for over 6 weeks.  In spite of the fact that the majority of people who came down to Homestead to help our community were wonderful and extremely well-intentioned – there were some real opportunists too.  A case in point: Generators were trucked down and sold from the back of the trailers for more than 5 times their suggested retail price – cash only – on the line!  The 25′ travel trailer I bought to live in (our house was a total loss) cost $12,995 in our part of Florida before the storm and $17,995 after the storm.  The good news is that my son-in-law found the same model for me from the dealer in Knoxville who sold it to us for $10,000 – and that included delivering it to my driveway in Homestead and showing me the ropes on how to operate the things I knew nothing about.  He and his wife told us that when watching television in the comfort of their home they had been hoping that something would come up where they could be of significant help to a family.  What special people they are!

Only one window was broken by the storm in our home and that was merely a crack.  Why?  We had them all protected with storm shutters.  But – the roof failed!  The shutters don’t protect the contents of a house when the roof comes off – LOL.

A friend of mine who worked at Turkey Point Nuclear Power Plant had quit drinking a couple of years prior to hurricane Andrew.  When I saw him a few days after the storm he told me how happy he was that he had quit because had he been drinking he would have merely sat in his recliner with a bottle (or bottles) and tried to ride out the storm in some state of oblivion.  He said that the storm had moved that recliner 8 yards from its spot in his family room.  I thought to myself, “8 yards – 24 feet – sure – I can visualize that happening – easily.  After all – his family room was the biggest room in the house.  BUT – what he meant was 8 “yards!”  Yes – the chair had been repositioned 8 houses down the street coming to rest in someone else’s back yard.

Advertisements