Archive for the ‘Weather photographs’ Category

IKE MISSING – SEARCH LINK

Photo Source = Getty Images

Photo Source = Getty Images LEFT CLICK TO ENLARGE

Bodies of hurricane Ike victims continue to be recovered – mostly in debris fields.  Here is a recent story on that subject:

http://www.khou.com/ike/stories/khou081007_tj_ike_body_found_goat_island.efe8b898.html

The Red Cross has a webpage where those living in the regions effected by the hurricane and those who have evacuated/relocated can register.  I urge you to do so.  There is also a search feature for those of you who are looking for particular survivors.  Here is the link:

https://disastersafe.redcross.org/default.aspx

For those of you looking for a person or persons, it is my most sincere hope that you find all is well.  For those of you not looking, it is also my hope that all is well.

There is a wide range within the estimate of the number of people still missing.  Here are some examples:

http://www.khou.com/news/state/stories/khou080928_mp_missing_people.bfbce24e.html

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5glUtWAW1BlcQcj1enZzk-kmvVSvwD93JQV980

http://www.click2houston.com/news/17651522/detail.html

FLORIDA MAY HAVE A TROPICAL VISITOR LATER THIS WEEK

Left click on image to enlarge.

Left click on image to enlarge.

From late September on through the remainder of the official hurricane season, systems that can develop into named storms begin to pop up in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.  One such development may be occurring now.

An interesting area in the vicinity of the Yucatan is being watched by the National Hurricane Center.  I have marked the approximate center which is hard to pinpoint since there is no apparent closed surface circulation at this time.  I may have my blue dot positioned a bit too far to the east.  It’s easier to do when using loops rather than stills like this image.  If you want to try that, here is a good page to get some nice loops:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

I have looked at some of the models on this one and there are indications that it could eventually move toward Florida and provide significant rainfall.  It is my opinion that interests along the West Coast of Florida should pay attention to this.  Right now the wind shear over the storm is about 20 mph.  There is some chance that it could slowly strengthen as it moves toward the northeast later this week.  Probably around the middle of the week it will be influencing some part of Florida.

Tonie A. Toney

12:50 PM EDT 9-28-08

STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS IS NOT OF TROPICAL ORIGIN

Two independent left clicks should enlarge this image.
Two independent left clicks should enlarge this image.

The storm that is at the North Carolina-South Carolina border may look like a hurricane but it is not. The National Weather Service is calling it a non-tropical cyclone. A more common term for such cyclones is “extratropical cyclone.” “Extra” means “outside of.” This refers to their developing outside of the tropics. Hurricanes are tropical cyclones. Even though in the northern hemisphere they both rotate counterclockwise around a central region of low pressure, tropical cyclones have warm cores and are often referred to as “warm core lows.” Relatively cold air occupies part of most extratropical cyclones and this is most certainly the case with this one. The doublet image of the system that I have prepared which you see (above) shows a visible satellite view of the storm earlier today and compares it with a surface analysis.  The two do not represent exactly the same time but it’s close; 44 minutes separate them. So, it’s a near match.

For those of you who know your frontal symbols, notice that there are three different types of fronts, all three representing boundaries between relatively warm air and relatively cool air. An occluded front arcs out from the center of the storm and there is a warm front whose axis runs ENE-WSW, and a stationary front curving down to the south.

In spite of the fact that it is extratropical and therefore un-named, it has many of the characteristics of a tropical storm.  People located in the storm’s vicinity should be alert to the potential hazards. Also, there is a strong chance that it will interact with tropical storm Kyle in the interesting Fujiwhara effect.  If you are interested in that phenomenon, see the following link and also view the post that followed it (at the next higher post location on the page).  To do that you will need to scroll to the top of the page and click on the “blog” tab.  That will access you to all entries.

Tropical Wave AL 93 Might Dance Within a Few Days!

Cement Structure No Match For Ike – Update

I posted an item on Sept. 21, 2008 about the elevated structure with cement block exterior walls at the upper level (pictured at the very end of this entry).  That original post is still contained in this web-log.  In this post that you are now reading, I am adding additional comments in “blue” to get you (and me) up to date.  This has gone back and forth and I hope the identity of the building and the stated design of the block walls is correct.  It worries me because anyone in there could have been seriously injured or worse from collapsing cement blocks.  This first photograph is of a cement block structure In the Naranja Lakes Condominium Development near Homestead, Florida.  In this particular structure there was a fatality due to poured concrete headers and blocks coming down upon a resident huddled inside – a real tragedy.  There were at least 3 such fatalities in that neighborhood; it’s amazing that there were not more. TWO INDEPENDENT LEFT CLICKS SHOULD ENLARGE THIS IMAGE A GREAT DEAL.

This next paragraph reflects that I had already made a previous change in the original entry.

It is my understanding that the structure (pictured below) belongs to a yacht club. A reader wrote in after I originally posted this because I had misidentified it as the Houston Yacht Club.  However, he indicated that the Houston Yacht Club is “a three story coral colored structure and while some water entered the first floor it is essentially undamaged.”  You can check out his comment.

Since then, a couple of readers have identified the building as belonging to the Seabrook Sailing Club just north of the Clear Creek channel.  “Kent” adds, “The cinder-block wash-away walls collapsed as designed, leaving the shell structure intact. It was originally built after Hurricane Carla in the early 1960s. Hurricane Alicia did a similar number on the building in 1983. I think the club is trying to decide if they should rebuild on the current shell or scrap it.”  End quote.

Though this building is elevated and held fast on its foundation, the surge was too high and the waves too forceful for the cement block.  I don’t believe this damage can be attributed directly to wind force but rather, the surge with its waves on top.  For those of you who have felt the pounding of moderate surf against your body – imagine what this cement block must have endured before yielding.  I see wires and perhaps some straps but I see no evidence of corefill in the block nor do I see very much rebar reinforcement in the image.  At the time that I wrote this I had no idea that upper level walls were deliberately built to wash away.  If this is true, so much for the contents and/or anyone who might have been unable to get out because they waited too long.  On the other hand, maybe it was just used for storage.  I had heard of “break-away” lower level walls.  In fact I have a friend who built a pole house with that design. For quick information rebar and poured concrete reinforcement read the second paragraph in the following link and click on the photo on the bottom right.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cinder_block

Please visit the rest of this web-log go to “blog” at the top of this page or click here.  https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/.  If you are interested in weather, there are some tutorials scattered about and more will be added in time.

THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT MAY OCCUR SOON – HEADS UP.

Though if it does occur it won’t be as stark as this Pacific Ocean weather event, but it should still be quite interesting.  If you are interested please read the previous post.  If this is the only one you see, scroll to the top of the page and click “Blog” or go to https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/

Tonie A. Toney (Cloudman23)

Tropical Wave AL 93 Might Dance Within a Few Days!

A second left click should enlarge image further.
A second left click should enlarge image further.

There is a possibility that the very interesting Fujiwhara effect might occur within the next few days.  In the image above I have placed a red dot upon the tropical disturbance that is tormenting Puerto Rico and Eastern Hispaniola and a light blue dot upon an extratropical low that is off the Eastern Seaboard and probably kicking up some big waves.  If the tropical system shoots north as the models are predicting, the two could interact in the Fujiwhara effect.  Here is a well-written link about that phenomenon.

http://weather.about.com/od/hurricaneformation/a/Fujiwhara.htm

The extratropical system might even back up a bit in response to a rotation around a common axis with the tropical system.  Go to this link now if you would like to see a rendition of what might happen:  (There are four helpful buttons – reverse, stop. forward, and single step).

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?eta_pcpn_slp_thkn+///6

SPECIAL NOTE:  THE LINK IMMEDIATELY ABOVE IS VERY TIME SENSITIVE.  IT MAY NOT SHOW WHAT I’VE DISCUSSED IN THIS BLOG UNLESS YOU VIEW IT ON THE DAY THIS WAS POSTED.   AFTERWARDS THE FORECAST MIGHT CHANGE.  IF THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT ACTUALLY COMES TO FRUITION WE WILL BE ABLE TO SEE IT VIA LOOPS THAT ACCELERATE TIME.

Of course, I did not come up with this notion on my own.  My tip came from the WeatherUnderground blog posted by Dr. Jeff Masters at 10:43 AM EDT today (September 23, 2008).  He also mentioned it yesterday.

Natural processes can be lethal and cause heartbreak but they can also be breathtakingly beautiful.  If the Fujiwhara effect happens to occur, perhaps we will have the opportunity to watch two spiraling systems dance together for a while, just as spiraling galaxies can do as they get close to each other.  Let’s hope the prediction is “right on” and that we can focus upon an event that is NOT creating havoc as did Ike.  Enjoy!

Cement Block Structure No Match for Ike

It is my understanding that this structure (below) belongs to a yacht club. A reader wrote in after I originally posted this because I had misidentified it as the Houston Yacht Club.  However, he indicated that the Houston Yacht Club is “a three story coral colored structure and while some water entered the first floor it is essentially undamaged.”  You can check out his comment.

Though this building is elevated and held fast on its foundation, the surge was too high and the waves too forceful for the cement block.  I don’t believe this damage can be attributed directly to wind force but rather, the surge with its waves on top.  For those of you who have felt the pounding of moderate surf against your body – imagine what this cement block must have endured before yielding.  I see wires and perhaps some straps but I see no evidence of corefill in the block nor do I see very much rebar reinforcement in the image.  For quick information on that type of reinforcement read the second paragraph in the following link and click on the photo on the bottom right.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cinder_block

A footnote for my regular readers:  You can check for yourself but it looks according to the models as though the tropical disturbance addressed in the previous post is going to move northward.  Still, I fear for those in Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.  The rains are something they don’t need right now.

Please visit the rest of this web-log at https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/.  If you are interested in weather, there are some tutorials scattered about and more will be added in time.

CARIBBEAN SYSTEM HAS MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

TWO LEFT CLICKS WILL ENLARGE IMAGES A GREAT DEAL

According to the National Hurricane Center, the tropical wave in the Caribbean has a medium potential for tropical cyclone development.  For those of you who don’t understand that here is a brief explanation.

In order for a system to be cyclonic there must be a rotation of the wind around a low pressure center.  Presently there is no indication of a closed rotation in this otherwise impressive system.  A tropical wave (also called a tropical disturbance) becomes a tropical depression if rotation begins.  Ordinarily the rotation itself signals a maturing (growth) of the system.  Once rotation begins, the conservation of angular momentum kicks in such that as the wind spirals closer and closer to the center its velocity increases.  Tropical depressions can intensify into tropical storms (39-73 mph) and the latter can intensify into hurricanes (74 or more mph).  Here is the formal statement from the Hurricane Center:

================================================

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

1. A TROPICAL WAVE…ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES…AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.  THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION…AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE

FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THIS TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY…IF NECESSARY.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT…LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES…THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUNDAY.

================================================

On the infrared satellite image above from the U.S. Naval Research Lab, I have marked two islands that don’t need any more precipitation for a while due to recent tropical systems having dumped heavy (and deadly) loads upon them.  Flooding and mudslides are likely if this disturbance moves as expected, over the islands.  For the same reasons, Cuba also stands a risk of increased problems.

Please visit the rest of this web-log at https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/.  If you are interested in weather, there are some tutorials scattered about and more will be added in time.


GILCHRIST LONE HOUSE “BEFORE” PHOTO AVAILABLE

If you would like to see a photo of the “Lone House” taken back in May click on the link below.  Some of the dialog is interesting too.

Thanks to “DewDrop” for letting me know about it.

http://www.ireport.com/docs/DOC-89312

Please visit the rest of this web-log at https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/.  If you are interested in weather, there are some tutorials scattered about and more will be added in time.

Location of Gilchrist House Confirmed!

Thanks to images posted by Dr. Jeff Masters this morning on the WeatherUnderground.com site, aerial images before and after have confirmed the location of the lonely little house that seems to have survived the ravages of Ike.  I have reworked the scale of the images he posted and placed red arrows marking the house that has been being addressed in this web-log.  It confirms the suspicions of myself and others that the house was either rebuilt or replaced between the time that Google loaded it’s images and today.  After I post the before and after images I will paste in Dr. Masters’ specific comments about Gilchrist.  Remember, for an enlarged view – left click two times.

Why did Gilchrist get destroyed

and Will Gilchrist be rebuilt?

By Dr. Jeff Masters

WeatherUnderground.com http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

“It’s rare to see a town so completely destroyed by a hurricane, to the point where you can’t even see the wreckage. The neighboring towns of Crystal Beach, to the south, and High Island, to the north, were also mostly destroyed, but weren’t swept clean of nearly all structures and wreckage. This is because Gilchrist was built in an unusually vulnerable place. It’s bad enough to situate your town on a low-lying peninsula, as was the case for Crystal Beach. But in Gilchrist’s case, the town was located at the narrowest point of the Bolivar Peninsula, at a point where it was only a few hundred meters wide (Figure 2). Not only did Gilchrist suffer a head-on assault by Ike’s direct storm surge of 14+ feet, topped by 20′ high battering waves, the town also suffered a reverse surge once the hurricane had passed. As Ike moved to the north, the counter-clockwise flow of wind around the storm pushed Galveston Bay’s waters back across the town of Gilchrist from northwest to southeast. This second surge of water likely finished off anything the main storm surge had left.

I hope the government will see fit to buy up the land that was once the town of Gilchrist and make it into a park. Building a town in Gilchrist’s location makes as much sense as building a town on the sides of an active volcano. (Unfortunately, there are plenty of people who have done just that, such as on the slopes of Vesuvius in Italy). If past history is any guide, Gilchrist will be rebuilt, and it will take another mighty hurricane to permanently take down the town. That was the case for the town of Indianola, Texas, which lay in a vulnerable low-lying location on the shores of Matagorda Bay in the mid-1800’s. Indianola was the second largest port in the state of Texas, and home to 5,000 people. In 1875, a powerful Category 3 hurricane piled up a huge storm surge as it came ashore in Indianola. The surge destroyed 3/4 of the town’s 2,000 buildings, and killed 176 people. The city was rebuilt, but in 1886, a devastating Category 4 hurricane swept almost the entire town of Indianola into Matagorda Bay, killing another 250 townspeople. The people of Indianola finally gave up and moved elsewhere, and the ruins of their town now lie under fifteen feet of water in Matagorda Bay.”

Please visit the rest of this web-log at https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/.  If you are interested in weather, there are some tutorials scattered about and more will be added in time.