Archive for the ‘Tropical Weather’ Category

Update On Tropical Depression Nine (AL09) 8-29-2016, 10:30 pm EST

Compare this to the previous posting which was 24 hours earlier and you will see some change in the tracking model forecasts – which is to be expected.

I have greatest confidence in the TVCA run which is a consensus of 5 other models which have been good performers over the last few years.  Generally, the TVCA model is very close to the National Hurricane Center’s “official” track that is the basis for the “uncertainty” cones released to the public.  If you are one to pay attention to which models get mentioned or shown in weather reports you have surely heard of the “European model” which is labeled ECMWF.  You won’t find it on these spaghetti illustrations; Data from this model is restricted from being redistributed according to international agreement.   However, the National Weather Service official track runs very close to being the same as the ECMWF.  The BAMM and related models are still useful for long term runs but in this case I think you can pretty much ignore them (the ones that run off toward the west). 

Suppose you lived along the Nature Coast of Florida, (e.g. Citrus County) then you might feel that you have nothing to be concerned about because the tracks seem to be shifting northward.  But please remember, these tracks are merely forecasting the storm’s center.  In most cases the strongest winds are at the right hand, leading quadrant of such storms, which, in this case might cause Citrus County some concerns. 

Please be sure to click on the graphic for enlargement.

 

2016-8-30 L 0000z

Citrus County Florida and Hurricanes

 

 Enlarge images in this posting with left clicks.

LakeHenderson ctILLUSTRATION A.  Big Lake Henderson from Inverness, Florida
– Please credit photo to Colin Toney –

Citrus Location Map darkILLUSTRATION B – map of Citrus County showing locations of the Gulf Coastal Lowlands which are subject to storm surges, the sandy Brooksville Ridge occupying more than one-third of the area, and the Tsala Apopka Plain containing the majority of the county’s fresh water lakes  –

– TWO INDEPENDENT LEFT CLICKS ENLARGE THE IMAGE ABOVE TO THE FULLEST –

I Am Very Happy Living In Citrus County.

 Of course, being retired, being a nature-lover and being relatively healthy helps. All locations have pros and cons but with respect to the latter I have yet to regret the move with my extended family 9 years ago. We had experienced hurricanes and tropical storms through the years. Our house was a total loss in 1992’s category 5 hurricane Andrew; it was at ground zero in Homestead which is located 27.6 miles (as the crow flies) southwest of Miami. The house belonging to my wife’s folks, less than a mile away, had extensive damage. What a terrible mess was caused by the only hurricane to make landfall upon the U.S.A. that season. But when we moved to Citrus County 13 years later we were conscious of the fact that by leaving South Florida we had NOT left “hurricane country.”  I felt that Citrus County would be safer in that respect but certainly not a hurricane-proof location.  It didn’t take long for me to meet people who felt that there was something special about Citrus and other nearby counties that made a serious hurricane event almost inconceivable.

Complacency is a real problem in hurricane country. I don’t claim to be an expert on complacency but there have been times in my life where I might have contracted the disorder I call “terminal uniqueness.” Therefore, I am acquainted with denial, ignorance, procrastination, irresponsibility, and “living in a dream world” because I’ve been there; for all I know, I’m there still.  I believe that every time I point a finger at someone, three are pointing back at me and this is written in that spirit. Thus, I’m not trying to indict anyone here; I’m just trying to state what appears to me to be true.  

As I see it – Citrus County, as a whole, though probably not the “geographical poster child” for complacency when it comes to hurricanes and tropical storms, seems to be after the title – in spite of its experience with “The Florida Four in 2004” (see illustration C below).  I’m not speaking of those who vigorously engage in emergency planning and increasing awareness in the community.  And of course I’m not speaking to residents reading this who have engaged in effective advanced planning and preparation.  No, I’m speaking of the average Jack and/or Jill occupying a dwelling in Citrus County; I acknowledge that there are plenty of exceptions. To be sure – this is not a problem exclusive to Citrus County. I believe it’s prevalent in all or nearly all parts of the country susceptible to tropical cyclonic weather.  Please click on this graphic below for enlargement.

4 of 2004 Citrus Y– ILLUSTRATION C –

The four 2004 storm tracks above are dated for your convenience.  For example: Tropical storm Bonnie’s track runs from August 3rd to August 14.

NOTE: For an infrared satellite loop of the majority of the 2004 season, click on the first link below.  Date and time indicators appear along the bottom margin.  Then for an animated loop which is easier to interpret click on the second link.

Some History

 

 I moved to Florida in 1956 during my high school junior year and I don’t remember a time since when I have not been conscious of the potential for tropical weather to wreak havoc upon lives and property and I have always tried to be prepared. If you were to have simply driven by my house you could have observed elements of hurricane preparedness. That is still true today.  It is a high priority item in my family.  I have been an active advocate of hurricane awareness and preparation for many years. If anything, I hope that illustrations in this weblog posting will increase awareness at least among the few who see it.  So let me call your attention to the illustration below.  Most residents who see such illustrations are, at the very least, surprised.  Naturally some point out that this covers a long period of time.  But really, is 161 years a long time in the whole scheme of things?  My point in showing this is:  TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE A REALITY IN CITRUS COUNTY.  Also, please be aware of the fact that the plot lines show the paths of the centers of storms and that the storms have a width that is not apparent here.  The center of a storm does not have to come within just a few miles for it to be of great concern; the center can be many miles away.

Inverness100mi1852-2012 ILLUSTRATION D -The circle has a 100 mile radius with Inverness, Florida in the center.  Remember, left click for enlargement.

Even before leaving Homestead for good in 2005 – while visiting Citrus County I detected the existence of a notion of immunity to any sort of serious tropical cyclonic weather (e.g. hurricanes, tropical storms). Though I have no scientific evidence to back this – I classify the “no-need-to-be-concerned” feeling as widespread among the Citrus County population. In fact, sometimes  “low-to-no” hurricane probability has been drastically overstated here (I’ve heard it and I’ve heard about it). It seems that “The Florida Four in 2004 ” did very little to squelch the delusion. Still – I would have expected that particular season to have provided a huge “wake up call.”

NOTE:  The “official” Florida Four in 2004 includes hurricane Charley which struck Punta Gorda on August 13 and later moved through South Carolina.  It does not include tropical storm Bonnie.

Just a few weeks ago I overheard a hostess at a popular restaurant in adjacent Marion County telling a booth full of patrons, “We just don’t get hurricanes here.” Recently a friend of mine suggested that there was something about our county’s geography, specifically the Brooksville Ridge, that prevented hurricane visits. That reminded me of Muncie, Indiana where I used to live; it is alleged to be immune from tornadoes because of a particular bend in the river flowing through it. Also, a protective blessing from an Indian chief has been cited.

http://www.ballstatedaily.com/article/2013/11/evidence-refutes-claims-of-tornado-myth

“The Florida Four in 2004” did not produce the extent of damage or flooding that raised eyebrows all over the nation and, for now, a sense of security from lethal storms seems to cling on. This is not a prediction nor is it my wish, but I do fear that a hurricane coming through this area has the potential to surprise a lot of people and make them wonder what they were thinking.  And such an event could be deadly and most certainly destructive.

Storm Surge Potential

 

When I was looking for property in Citrus County one of my big concerns was the encroachment of wind-driven sea water with a storm – the so-called storm surge. Upon investigation I found what I expected – that if it was important to me personally to avoid surge potential I should avoid about one-third of the county’s land area – the western third. 

NOTE:  Illustration B, “map of Citrus County” might be useful to you here. 

Most of that western third is undeveloped but there are two noteworthy communities within it, Homosassa and most of Crystal River.  Therefore, early on I decided not to settle on the Gulf Coastal Lowlands but instead chose the Brooksville Ridge. In my opinion, the broad, hilly, sandy ridge is, by far, the safest place for a home or business in the county because of it’s higher elevations and greater ability to handle large amounts of precipitation often associated with a storm. The highest point in the county is within the Citrus Hills Golf Course above a 230′ contour – my Google Earth measurement has it at 235 feet.

Surge chart SmallILLUSTRATION E – Storm surge portion of Citrus County, the western third (color-coded).  T = tropical storm and the numbers represent hurricane categories.  Left click to enlarge or go to the next illustration for more detail.

Citrus New Flood Zones– ILLUSTRATION F – Two independent left clicks result in a significant enlargement.

FOR STORM SURGE ZOOM CAPABILITIES, click on this link: 

http://www.floridadisaster.org/publicmapping/SURGE/SURGE_CITRUS.pdf

 

Other Concerns

 

To be fair, Citrus county seems not to have been visited by category 5 or 4 hurricanes though at nearby Cedar Key a 1896 hurricane was a category 4 according to some estimates – crediting it with 135 mph winds.

NOTE:  As far as we know, only three Category 5 storms have struck the U.S.A. – the 1935 Florida Keys or Labor Day hurricane, Hurricane Camille which hit Mississippi in 1969, and 1992’s Hurricane Andrew.  The records aren’t good enough to say whether any earlier storms were Category 5 by today’s standards and they don’t go back very far with respect to the length of time that such storms have visited the North American mainland.

But lesser tropical cyclones, like tropical storms and tropical depressions, can produce both microbursts and tornadoes and simple straight-line gusts can far exceed the sustained wind velocity of such storms.  Of course this is true for hurricanes too.  Illustration G below shows initiation points of tornadoes spawned by tropical cyclones (e.g. tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes) from 1995 through 2010.  The entire report is available in the PDF format here:

Tornadoes Tropical Cyclones

TC tornadoes Citrus

– ILLUSTRATION G –

Please enlarge this with a left click.  This illustration is on page 7 of Roger Edwards’ report which is available to you as the previous PDF document link titled Tornadoes Tropical Cyclones.

 

 

Recently, I looked into the proximity of past storms near my church and created a graphic for those who might be interested.  Since the church is located in Lecanto and near the geographical center of Citrus County, I’m including the graphic in this weblog entry.  Notice that I picked a small radius of 25 miles yet the illustration clearly shows a lot of activity.  Had I picked a larger radius, say 50 miles, the graphic would show many more storms ( for an example of what I mean, see illustration D with a 100 mile radius centered on Inverness).

 

- left click to enlarge -

– left click to enlarge –

– ILLUSTRATION H –

Note:  If you would like to utilize the program I used to derive illustration D and illustration H, here is a link:

http://csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#

 

The Relationship Between Wind Velocity and Its Potential Force

 

There is one last point I’d like to make and I have found in my years of teaching that there are many people who do not know this:  One would think that the potential force of an 80 mph wind would be twice that of a 40 mph wind.  But that is not true.  The relationship is not linear – it is exponential.  An 80 mph wind has FOUR TIMES the potential force of a 40 mph wind.  When someone looking at the historical chart above sees mostly tropical storms (green) and category 1 hurricanes (yellow) they typically tend to minimize the dangers.  They don’t realize that an 80 mph category 1 hurricane wind is far worse than a 60 mph tropical storm wind.  I’ve done the math and, as it turns out, an 80 mph hurricane wind has 1.78 times the potential force of a 60 mph tropical storm wind (or close to twice the potential force).  So, in even more simple terms, small increases in wind velocity result in large increases in potential force!  For more discussion on the relationship between velocity and force, click on this link to a previous weblog entry: 

https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/09/11/the-force-of-wind-a-great-surprise-for-most-people/#more-656

 

 

Wrap-up

 

My next mission is to discuss this with some people in the area to learn their attitudes and feelings on the subject.  I’m sure I will learn a lot and gain more knowledge and insight.  For example, I’ll bet there are some who just don’t feel it’s worth the effort – that they will just evacuate and let insurance take care of things, or maybe take some losses and leave for good if a serious storm messes things up.    Others must find permanent window and door protection to be “cost prohibitive” and have plans to somehow temporarily protect those openings – maybe at the last minute.  None of those approaches work for me; there are just too many variables.  For example, try buying plywood when it becomes fairly clear that a hurricane is coming your way.  Or – consider what it might be like if you do plan to evacuate but wait too long and are unable to do so.  Being inside a home that is breaking apart during a serious hurricane is no picnic. 

NOTE:  See link below to “Window Protection Is Essential”.

I suspect that there are many who feel they have thought things through and that their apparent inaction is merely a function of our individual differences in thinking.  Perhaps they do indeed have a “plan” albeit different than mine.  What’s the saying – “Different strokes for different folks”?  Regardless, I strongly recommend advanced preparation.

The complacency I’m talking about is defined at Dictionary.com as “a feeling of quiet pleasure or security, often while unaware of some potential danger, defect, or the like.”  I observed complacency among many people in pre-Andrew Homestead and suspect it exists there again because, after all, that was 22 years ago.  So why should I expect a greater awareness and more obvious preparation along the Nature Coast where Citrus County is located? The fact is, I don’t.  But I can dream, can’t I?

 

 MORE INFORMATION:

 

Recent FEMA Release:  http://www.fema.gov/news-release/2014/08/22/decade-after-2004-storms-fema-urges-hurricane-preparedness

Citrus County Emergency Management –   http://www.sheriffcitrus.org/EM/

Disaster Preparedness (Florida Department of Health – Citrus County)   http://www.floridahealth.gov/chdCitrus/disasterpreparedness.htm

Hurricane misconceptions:  https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/09/23/952/

Saffir-Simpson hurricane categories:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

Sustained winds:  http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D4.html

Window protection is essential:  https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/09/08/window-protection-for-hurricanes-is-essential/

The effects of hurricane winds upon a house:  https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/09/10/the-effect-of-hurricane-winds-upon-a-house/

Hurricane focus on Central Florida:  https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/09/13/hurricane-focus-on-central-florida/

Why is Florida so humid?  https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2009/07/04/why-is-florida-so-humid/

Karen Is A Gulf Coast Concern

Karen– Click on image to enlarge –

The graphic above is the Friday, October 4, 2013 10 a.m CDT (advisory #6) from the National Hurricane Center.

 Those who follow this web-log know that my primary source of information regarding tropical weather is Dr. Jeff Masters of Weather Underground. His blog can be found by clicking on the “community” tab once you open the following page: http://www.wunderground.com/

 It would be a waste of my time and yours for me to try to explain it any better. Here is his verbatim forecast report posted at 1:44 PM GMT on October 04, 2013

Forecast for Karen

Wind shear for the next three days is expected to stay high, around 20 – 30 knots, according to the 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere is quite dry over the Western Gulf of Mexico, and this dry air combined with high wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification possible until landfall. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will bring higher wind shear near 30 knots and turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Saturday. The higher shear, combined with ocean temperatures that will drop to 28°C, may be able to induce weakening, and NHC has sharply reduced its odds of Karen achieving hurricane strength. The 5 am EDT Friday wind probability forecast from NHC put Karen’s best chance of becoming a hurricane as a 23% chance on Sunday at 2 am EDT. This is down from the 41% odds given in Thursday afternoon’s forecast. Most of the models show Karen intensifying by 5 – 10 mb on Saturday afternoon and evening as the storm nears the coast, as the storm interacts with the trough of low pressure turning it to the northeast. This predicted intensification may be because of stronger upper-level outflow developing (due to diverging winds aloft sucking up more air from the surface.) We don’t have much skill making hurricane intensity forecasts, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Karen do the opposite of what the models predict, and decay to a weak tropical storm just before landfall, due to strong wind shear. In any case, residents of New Orleans should feel confident that their levee system will easily withstand any storm surge Karen may generate, as rapid intensification of Karen to a Category 3 or stronger hurricane has a only a minuscule probability of occurring (1% chance in the latest NHC forecast.)

Since Karen is expected to make a sharp course change to the northeast near the time it approaches the south coast of Louisiana, the models show a wide range of possible landfall locations. The European and UKMET models are the farthest west, with a landfall occurring west of New Orleans. The GFS model is at the opposite extreme, showing a landfall about 400 miles to the east, near Apalachicola, Florida. NHC is splitting the difference between these extremes, which is a reasonable compromise. Most of Karen’s heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear when the storm makes landfall, and there will likely be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 – 3″ to the immediate west of where the center. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 – 8″ can be expected to the east. NHC’s 5 am EDT Friday wind probability forecast shows the highest odds of tropical storm-force winds to be at the tip of the Mississippi River at Buras, Louisiana: 66%. New Orleans, Gulfport, Mobile, and Pensacola have odds ranging from 47% – 51%.

Sandy Alert – There Is No Shame In Evacuating!

What concerns me most is the number of people who will not address and act upon hurricane Sandy’s threat maturely. As a man who grew up in an environment where “being a man” meant being able to handle, support, protect, and defend – I can identify with the need to have it “together” in these types of situations. It was hard for me on the morning of 8-23-1992 to “order” my wife, two children, father-in-law, and mother-in-law into my van so that we could evacuate our two homes (separated by less than a mile) in Homestead, Florida to escape approaching hurricane Andrew. But, when we returned 3 days later we were thanking the Great Guy In the Sky that we were not there when the storm hit. It would have been a most traumatic experience and could have been deadly. Our house was a total loss and my in-laws’ house was severely damaged but not beyond repair. There are people today of all ages still suffering post traumatic stress syndrome over that hurricane of 20 years ago. Admittedly, the aftermath and rebuilding processes were extraordinarily difficult but we were together and healthy and I had very good insurance and did not lose my job. Thousands of people lost both their dwellings and their jobs! We had much for which to be grateful.

But, sometimes, in an attempt to handle, support, protect, and defend – people (men in particular, I think) tend to make macho decisions that they later regret – if they live to experience regret. One example is: Failing to evacuate dangerous areas that are subject to flooding, landslides, storm surges, etc. Believe me – there is no disgrace in fleeing in such circumstance. Sure, one wants to stay and protect his/her home and the “things” within it but such a mindset can backfire resulting in fatal consequences. Take my word for it, “things” can be replaced in time but once you lose your life of worse, that of a loved one – there is no going back or rebirth back into this dimension.

 Hurricane Sandy is a storm that has it all. Oh sure, it’s not a category 5 storm as was Andrew but it is a huge storm taking up an area more than the size of Texas one and one-half times! And – it has a strong pressure gradient. It has a very long fetch (distance of water over which the wind blows) which increases significantly the potential height of the storm surge.

 Just because the winds are within the category 1 range, remember that slight increases can cause exponential increases in the potential force. In fact, doubling the wind velocity quadruples the air’s potential force upon a surface that it strikes at right angles.  Early on in my teaching career it because quite apparent to me that most people assume that doubling the velocity simply doubles the force.  But that is far from true.  For example, an 80 mile per hour wind has FOUR TIMES the potential force of a 40 mile per hour wind. So DON’T think to yourself, “I know I can deal with a 40 mile per hour wind; in fact I and my dwelling can deal with one that is 80 miles per hour because that is just two times that of a “40.” YOU WOULD BE VERY, VERY WRONG! If you are interested in more on this subject, including an equation – go here:

https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/tag/wind-velocity-relative-to-force/

 A great deal of precipitation over land is expected with Sandy – so much that many of the drainage systems, both natural and man-made, will not be able to handle it. Trees will be less stable because of saturation of the soil and rock into which their roots are anchored. Combined with the wind force, many will come down. Unhealthy trees will snap. Mother Nature WILL do a great amount of pruning. Electricity will be cut off due to line damage from falling debris and flooding. Water pressure may drop or reduce to zero. Even modern gravity-feed systems require boosting due to the effects of friction and that usually requires electricity. If you have an electric pump with a well and no emergency generator, you could be out of luck. If your toilet is relatively modern you will still need about 1.6 gallons per flush. “If it’s yellow, let it mellow; if it’s brown, flush it down” might become your rule of thumb even if you have a lot of water stored (as in a tub that doesn’t slowly leak at the drain).

 Since much moisture will be drawn in by the storm from off the Atlantic and much cold air will be drawn down from the north, there is a very strong chance for SNOW with this storm.

 The bottom line, in my opinion is – If you are in the path of Sandy and:

  1. in a storm surge zone – evacuate.
  2. in a wooded area with big trees so close to your home that upon falling they are likely to do structural damage – evacuate.
  3. upon a hillside or mountainside where your area or an area above or below you has been stripped of most vegetation – evacuate.  Slides are a real danger in these cases.
  4. in a region that can easily flood  – evacuate.
  5. in a neighborhood where there is a lot of loose matter that could easily become damaging airborne projectiles – evacuate.
  6. in a mobile home or R.V. – evacuate.
  7. in a dwelling where, when you look out a front window you are looking down a street that is at right angles to your street – evacuate. The Venturi Effect can channel much higher winds and debris right into your dwelling!
  8. in any kind of a topographic restriction such as a narrow valley between two hills or mountains – evacuate for the same reason as in item 7.
  9. NOT prepared for many days without water service and/or electricity – evacuate.
  1. in an evacuation zone – evacuate!
  2. one who feels as though fleeing is a cowardly act – engage in a very quick but thorough attitude adjustment and ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

BUT DON’T EVACUATE IF THE STORM IS UPON YOU UNLESS YOU FEEL THAT THE MOVE IS ACTUALLY SAFER THAN STAYING.

TROPICAL STORM LEE 5 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST – VALID 8am EDT SUNDAY

Thanks to the National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Prediction Center for this graphic. 

What you see is a 5 day forecast for the total rainfall in inches between 8 AM Eastern Daylight Time Sunday and 8 AM EDT on Friday .  The feared 15″ of rain in the New Orleans area predicted 36 hours earlier seems highly unlikely.  For ease in reading, left click the image two times independently for full enlargement.

Lee Expected To Dump Lots Of Rain In the Next 5 Days!

Thanks to the National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Prediction Center for this graphic. 

What you see is a prediction for the total rainfall in inches between 8 AM Eastern Daylight Time Saturday and 8 AM EDT on Thursday (in other words – a 5 day total forecast).  Already, since this was released, the feared 15″ of rain in the New Orleans area seems highly unlikely due to dry air from Texas being drawn into the system.  For ease in reading, left click the image two times independently for full enlargement.

Photo Of Irene From Space – 8-28-2011

The photo below is actually from a scan of the “full disk” of earth from the GOES-13 satellite.  I have cropped the original in order to concentrate upon Tropical Storm Irene.  Tropical Storm Jose also shows up in the image; it is very small.  To find it look for a small blob of clouds, bright white (about half the width of the state of Florida and located off the Carolinas  and next to Bermuda).  More information follows after the image.

TWO INDEPENDENT LEFT CLICKS WILL ENLARGE TO THE FULLEST.

– THANKS TO NOAA FOR THIS IMAGE –

TIME OF PHOTO – 2:45 pm Eastern Daylight Time

DATE – Sunday, August 28, 2011

ALTITUDE OF SATELLITE – about 22,300 miles

TIME NEEDED TO SCAN FULL DISK OF EARTH – about 26 minute

LINK TO MORE INFORMATION ON  SATELLITE IMAGE –  http://noaasis.noaa.gov/NOAASIS/ml/imager.html

ECMWF MODEL RUN – THE EUROPEAN MODEL

When the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast model is running, here is my favorite site for viewing:

For a lot of different reasons, but mainly because I enjoy the insights of Dr. Jeff Masters in his weather blog, I use WeatherUnderground.com.  For future reference, a link to his blog is under the Blogroll category at the right margin of this page.  In fact, it’s the first listed.

For the ECMWF Model Run, click on the following link and then follow my instructions exactly:  NOTE:  YOU MIGHT WANT TO COPY THE INSTRUCTIONS BECAUSE ONCE YOU CLICK ON THE LINK THIS PAGE WILL BE GONE UNLESS YOU CLICK BACK –

 

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

  1. At the upper left of the image, click on the “continent” tab.
  2. Scroll down the menu on the right margin and click in the box labeled “model data”.
  3. Another menu dropped down. Click on the “model” arrow and select ECMWF.
  4. Make sure the “map type” remains on MSL which stands for “mean sea level.”
  5. Click on the “forecast” arrow and wait patiently for the load.
  6. After it has loaded fully it should loop. If you want it to stop click on the button at “forecast.”

Though the European Model is not always right (none of them are) it has done the best job for the last two years in situations akin to this one with hurricane Irene.  The National Weather Service gives credence to this model though you will not see it indicated on the official spaghetti charts and such.  In fact, lately, the NWS official forecasts have been close to that of the ECMWF model runs or, if you please, the ECMWF model runs have been close to the official forecasts of the NWS.  To be sure, there will be times when there is little agreement – at which time I expect to lean toward the NWS advisories.

Forecast for Irene by the European Model – posted 8-24-2011

This posting is time-sensitive and is now out of date.  For step by step instructions on access to an animated loop of the most current ECMWF (“European”) model go to the following link:  https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2011/08/25/ecmwf-model-run-the-european-model/

Hurricane Irene is now a category 3 storm.

IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE PUBLISHED CONE OF UNCERTAINTY IT WOULD BE FOOLISH TO IGNORE THIS STORM EVEN THOUGH YOU MIGHT NOT BE CLOSE TO WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY PREDICTED TO GO.  That is not just my opinion but also the opinion of National Weather Service forecasters.

TO FIND THE MOST RECENT CONE OF UNCERTAINTY DEPICTION, GO TO THE RIGHT-HAND MARGIN OF THIS PAGE AND UNDER “TROPICAL WEATHER” CLICK ON “NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME.

The graphic that follows is a 72 hour (3 day) forecast position that originated at 0000 Greenwich Time on the 24th (which is 2000 hours on the 23rd EDT time – or 8 pm).   The path that this European Model predicts correspond closely with today’s official forecast track of the National Weather Service.

On this graphic, and most on this site, two independent left clicks will enlarge to the fullest.  The poorness of the resolution is due to considerable enlargement from the original.

2 LEFT CLICKS FOR FULL ENLARGEMENT

Early U.S. Landfall forecast for Irene by the European Model – 8-23-2011

 

 

 

 

This posting is time-sensitive and is now out of date.  For step by step instructions on access to an animated loop of the most current ECMWF (“European”) model go to the following link:  https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2011/08/25/ecmwf-model-run-the-european-model/

 

 

Mind you, I am not formally trained in forecasting.  I am conveying to you what I am deriving from others and when I include my personal opinion I try to make that clear.  Also, very small changes in course can make a huge change in the location of a storm’s landfall, particularly when it is so far out as is Irene this moment.  For example, I am in West-Central Florida, 17 miles inland from the Gulf of Mexico but none-the-less, you can bet your sweet bippie that I’m on the alert.  SO IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE PUBLISHED CONE OF UNCERTAINTY IT WOULD BE FOOLISH TO IGNORE THIS STORM EVEN THOUGH YOU MIGHT NOT BE CLOSE TO WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY PREDICTED TO GO.  That is not just my opinion but also the opinion of National Weather Service forecasters.

TO FIND THE MOST RECENT CONE OF UNCERTAINTY DEPICTION, GO TO THE RIGHT-HAND MARGIN OF THIS PAGE AND UNDER “TROPICAL WEATHER” CLICK ON “NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME.

Over the last two years the European Model has done the best at predicting the paths of tropical systems under these particular circumstances.  The graphic that follows is a 5 day forecast position that originated at 0000 Greenwich Time on the 23rd (which is 2000 hours on the 22nd EDT time – or 8 pm).  A lot can happen in 5 days so take this for what it’s worth.  This does correspond closely with determinations made by the National Weather Service today.

I will check the next run (they occur at 0000 and 1200 or twice a day – Greenwich Time) and if there is a significant change I will post it.

On this graphic, and most on this site, two independent left clicks will enlarge to the fullest.