Archive for the ‘Bahamian weather’ Tag

AS A STORM, PALOMA IS A “GONER” – THANK GOODNESS!

11-10-08-floater

I have placed a red dot at the approximate center of the remnant low, all that remains of Paloma.  Two independent left clicks should give ample enlargement.

Here is the 7 AM EST report

from the National Hurricane Center:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

700 AM EST MON NOV 10 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

1. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE…THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA…IS CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH OF CAMAGUEY.  RE-DEVELOPENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Paloma Approaches Cuba As a Category 4 Hurricane

11-8-08-5-day
TWO INDEPENDENT LEFT CLICKS TO ENLARGE IMAGE

As of 1:00 PM EST Paloma remained a category 4 hurricane with sustained winds up to 140 mph.  The storm is not likely to get stronger due to an increase in the wind shear aloft.  It expected to begin dying down soon (if not already) as it works it’s way over Cuba and into the Bahamas.  The combination of shear and movement over Cuba should cause it to weaken relatively quickly.

This advisory is interesting in that we do not see “cones of uncertainty” but rather, circles.  You won’t see this often.

Paloma is very strong for a November storm.  I can only recall one that was stronger, “Wrong Way” Lenny in 1999.

According to Dr. Jeff Masters (and I quote) “This year is now the only hurricane season on record in the Atlantic that has featured major hurricanes in five separate months. The only year to feature major hurricanes in four separate months was 2005, and many years have had major hurricanes in three separate months. This year’s record-setting fivesome were Hurricane Bertha in July, Hurricane Gustav in August, Hurricane Ike in September, Hurricane Omar in October, and Hurricane Paloma in November.”

The image below is using the visible spectrum and was completed at 1:45 PM EST. TWO INDEPENDENT LEFT CLICKS SHOULD GIVE YOU CONSIDERABLE ENLARGEMENT.

11-8-08-paloma-145-p-est

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HURRICANE PALOMA IS HEADING FOR CUBA

LEFT CLICKS SHOULD ENLARGE THIS IMAGE

LEFT CLICKS SHOULD ENLARGE THIS IMAGE

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Paloma is now a “high-end” category 1 hurricane and continues to strengthen.  The greatest concerns throughout the Caymans are high winds – storm surge concerns are not as pressing.  Jamaica is expected to get only fringe winds.  Paloma is expected to continue toward the northeast, travel across Cuba and into the Bahamas.

Those of you who have studied the circulation of air with tropical cyclonic systems can probably “see” in the satellite image above both inflow and outflow cloud patterns.  For those who are not familiar with the difference between the two I am including an image below of hurricane Ike on September 9, 2008.  He is centered just offshore of northwest Cuba.  I have drawn air flow arrows to show the cyclonic inflow (red) and the flow that occurs aloft, anticyclonic outflow (blue).

LEFT CLICKS SHOULD ENLARGE THE IMAGE

LEFT CLICKS SHOULD ENLARGE THE IMAGE

Inflow consists of the harder-edged clouds with sharp contrast – Outflow consists of the more diffuse cirrus and cirrostratus of the upper layer.