Archive for the ‘Cape Verde hurricanes’ Tag

IMAGE OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER – 9-1-2010

Two independent left clicks will fully enlarge

Remember, tropical systems of this scale move generally from east to west if they have an entire ocean over which they can travel.  The reason for that tendency is multifaceted but it has to do more with the forces that dominate the general large-scale circulation of the atmosphere than anything else.  I will produce a posting with diagrams on that subject soon.

The lineup shown in the satellite image above is impressive to say the least though it is not unusual for this part of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.  Let’s hope that nothing serious comes of any of these systems.  However – I imagine that is wishful thinking.

Besides – everything is relative.  For example:  Since hurricane Andrew was relatively dry and part of the roof over the living room stayed on we were able to salvage some of our furniture.  The closest place I could find a truck to rent and storage was 100 miles north in Boynton Beach.  When my wife and I were up there we stopped at a Publix to purchase some provisions.  In the checkout lane we overheard a lady seriously complaining because her hair stylist was in Dade County and her standing weekly appointment had to be canceled because there was no electricity at the shop due to the hurricane.  Those of you who know me probably find it hard to believe that I kept my mouth shut – but I did.  In fact, I smiled over it as we moved on.  Our house had just been literally destroyed a few days earlier so this ladies concerns seemed a bit trivial to me.  However, for some reason – perhaps gratitude for being alive and having no one in my family injured – I felt that I needn’t bother to waste my time trying to convince her that her “problem” was not worth verbalizing in front of total strangers at a grocery store.  On the other hand, I’m sure some of my complaints seem trivial in the whole scheme of things.

NEW TROPICAL WAVE OFF AFRICA – 8-25-2010

Two independent left clicks will fully enlarge the image above.  For an even larger image see the link at the end of this post.

A new tropical wave (sometimes called tropical disturbances) has moved off Africa. From my point of view, they are now being shot off that continent toward the west in the manner of a repeating rifle. If this wave becomes a named storm it will be the third Cape Verde type in a row for this season.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Verde-type_hurricane

Based upon the computer models for Danielle, I don’t believe that she will be a threat to the U.S. mainland.  However, even though the models are also showing an eventual sharp right turn for Earl – I’m uneasy about that.  As for this new wave – it’s too soon to tell.  When tropical cyclonic storms follow each other those not in the lead often are weakened by cooler water that wells up in the wake of the front-runner.  What happens is that the leader sweeps warm surface water away and it is replaced by cooler upwelling water from deeper down.  Let’s hope this happens with these trailing storms but there are certainly no guarantees.  Conversely, when a hurricane moves over warmer water, in most cases it tends to intensify.

I indicate below the cropped full disk image my opinion that it will become a named storm within the next 7 days. I emphasize the term, “opinion.” It is to be noted that I am not a trained forecaster. Professionally my special interest was cloud dynamics. The reason why I say that the name will probably be Fiona is because there is a remote chance that something could develop in the Gulf of Mexico prior to intensification of the new African wave and thus inherit that name.

I am in the habit of cropping the full disk image before posting because it depicts half of the earth and size-wise, eats up a lot of memory. But if you would like to enjoy the latest full discs here is a link:

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/overview2/color_lrg/latestfull.jpg


Hurricane Ike – Where Is He Going? No One Knows!

Though Hanna is a concern these days, it appears that Ike is going to be much more powerful.  Perhaps in 5 days we will know what he’s going to do but right now there are significant differences of “opinion” among the models and, I presume, among the forecasters.  One “take” is that Ike will veer at some point and stay in the Atlantic, maybe posing a substantial threat on the East Coast all the way from Florida up.  The other “take” is that he could slip into the Gulf of Mexico, at which time the West Coast of Florida and other Gulf Coast states could get a big one.

This afternoon Ike’s winds have been sustained around 140 mph – a Cat 4.  This hurricane is a classic Cape Verde type and not one to be casually regarded.  I urge you to read Dr. Jeff Masters’ assessment of Ike in his posting this morning.  If it no longer appears you can find it archived at the site.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

There are some widespread misconceptions about the relationship between the wind’s velocity and the force it is able to exert. Continue reading