Archive for the ‘Cuban weather’ Tag

Irene Is Now a Hurricane – 8-22-2011

PLEASE NOTE – THIS IS A TIME-SENSITIVE POSTING

Below is the 11 am (Eastern Daylight Time) cone of uncertainty for hurricane Irene from the National Hurricane Center.  Remember, only minor shifts toward the west or east can change the complexion of things drastically.  Such changes are common – in fact, some meteorologists refer to resultant realignments of the spreading cone as “windshield wipering.”  Left click the image twice for full enlargement.

LEFT CLICK TWICE FOR FULL ENLARGEMENT

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97AL – Tropical System May Become a Threat to Florida

THIS IS A TIME-SENSITIVE POSTING SUBMITTED 8-20-2011 LATE MORNING EASTERN TIME.

Though there is more than one system out there today, my attention is east of the Lesser Antilles Islands where there is a system that currently has the status of a tropical wave.  However, there is an 80% chance that it will become cyclonic within the next 48 hours.  The Spaghetti chart below is courtesy of Jonathan Vigh.  His efforts to put the model forecasts together produce my favorite renditions.  Notice that the islands between its present location and Florida will be effected if this early visual is close to being correct.  The storms ability to sustain itself as it moves over land might be touch and go.  Frankly, this one really has my attention.

If you left click the image should enlarge – a second left click might enlarge it even further:

TROPICAL SYSTEM 91L. A 5 DAY PLUS FORECAST BY THE GFDL MODEL.

THANKS TO PENN STATE UNIVERSITY DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY FOR THIS GRAPHIC.

 Left clicks on this graphic should enlarge it for you.

THIS IS A TIME-SENSITIVE POSTING SUBMITTED 7-30-2011 LATE EVENING.

This is the GFDL model’s forecast for system 91L 126 hours from the 2 PM Eastern time release (today 7-30-2011).  Note that it is shown to be north of Eastern Cuba.  I calculate the forecast time to be 5.25 days (or 5 days and 6 hours) beyond the release time.  That would be Thursday, August 4 at 8 PM Eastern time.  This, of course is a forecast loaded with unknowns and fickle variables so one should not consider it a “given.”  The GFDL model (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) has impressed me over the last few years.  I’m posting this now so that perhaps on Thursday night you might want to check to see how close it is.  This posting is not intended to alarm anyone needlessly.  If you are in a position where you like to plan ahead and are potentially in the path of tropical systems from the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, I advise you to pay close attention to forecasts available to you.  It is my opinion that the Weather Channel on television does a great job covering tropical weather and I highly recommend it as a source.   Also, on the right hand margin of this page under Miscellaneous/Other you will find a link to the on-line Weather Channel.  I also highly recommend the tropical weather blog of Dr. Jeff Masters.  Here is a link:  http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI MODEL FORECASTS – 10-8-09

The image below shows model results for Tropical wave (depression) Henri released at 5 PM EDT, Oct. 8, 2009.

10-8-09 Henri

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE – JULY 20, 2009

LEFT CLICK TO ENLARGE THIS IMAGE

LEFT CLICK TO ENLARGE THIS IMAGE

TIME SENSITIVE! – THIS WAS POSTED AROUND

11:30 PM EST

ON JULY 20, 2009.

A tropical disturbance (also known as a tropical wave) has moved over Barbados and is continuing on its general path toward a direction just a little north of west.  The image above is a color-enhanced infrared.  At the time of this posting, the National Hurricane Center is indicating that they do not expect development into a cyclonic system within the next 48 hours.  To be cyclonic there must be a closed rotation.  tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere (except in the higher levels of the storms).  For more information on cyclonic circulation in a hurricane go to this link:

https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/09/09/hurricane-circulation-lesson-1/

My most trusted source, Dr. Jeff Masters, at this time expects the disturbance to be torn apart by upper level wind shear within the next few days.

To follow Dr. Masters’ reports, go to the following link:

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=34442

Then, in the “Features” bar at the top, click on Tropical/Hurricane.

That will take you to his Wunderblog feature which usually appears on the right hand side of the page.

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AS A STORM, PALOMA IS A “GONER” – THANK GOODNESS!

11-10-08-floater

I have placed a red dot at the approximate center of the remnant low, all that remains of Paloma.  Two independent left clicks should give ample enlargement.

Here is the 7 AM EST report

from the National Hurricane Center:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

700 AM EST MON NOV 10 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

1. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE…THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA…IS CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH OF CAMAGUEY.  RE-DEVELOPENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Paloma, Still Centered Over Cuba, Is Now a Tropical Storm

11-9-08-navy-hr

The image you see above shows Paloma at 2:15 EST today (Sunday, 11-9-2008).  It’s maximum sustained wind velocity was 60 mph at 10 AM but likely to be less now.  It may become a remnant low very soon.

FOR A MUCH ENLARGED VIEW, TWO INDEPENDENT LEFT CLICKS SHOULD WORK FOR YOU.

This is a high resolution visible image from the Naval Research Lab.  In spite of the fact that this photo was completed early in the afternoon, the low sun angle for this time of year provides a good view of the cumuliform cloud tops over the Bahamas; this is because the shadows the cloud tops cast give us a better view of their respective shapes.  Incidentally, the lowest sun angle for any given daylight hour for those of us in the “Lower 49” occurs on the first day of Winter, which is also the day with the shortest length of daylight (Winter Solstice).  It is necessary for me to exclude Alaska in that statement because there are parts of that state which, during the Winter, experience days with no daylight.

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CAMAQUEY, CUBA RADAR OF PALOMA – SATURDAY EVENING

The image loop below is from Camaquey, Cuba

radar covering from 6:45 to 7:45 PM EST 11-8-2008.

Please left click on the image for 15 minute interval animation.


SORRY - THIS WILL NOT ENLARGE

Paloma Approaches Cuba As a Category 4 Hurricane

11-8-08-5-day
TWO INDEPENDENT LEFT CLICKS TO ENLARGE IMAGE

As of 1:00 PM EST Paloma remained a category 4 hurricane with sustained winds up to 140 mph.  The storm is not likely to get stronger due to an increase in the wind shear aloft.  It expected to begin dying down soon (if not already) as it works it’s way over Cuba and into the Bahamas.  The combination of shear and movement over Cuba should cause it to weaken relatively quickly.

This advisory is interesting in that we do not see “cones of uncertainty” but rather, circles.  You won’t see this often.

Paloma is very strong for a November storm.  I can only recall one that was stronger, “Wrong Way” Lenny in 1999.

According to Dr. Jeff Masters (and I quote) “This year is now the only hurricane season on record in the Atlantic that has featured major hurricanes in five separate months. The only year to feature major hurricanes in four separate months was 2005, and many years have had major hurricanes in three separate months. This year’s record-setting fivesome were Hurricane Bertha in July, Hurricane Gustav in August, Hurricane Ike in September, Hurricane Omar in October, and Hurricane Paloma in November.”

The image below is using the visible spectrum and was completed at 1:45 PM EST. TWO INDEPENDENT LEFT CLICKS SHOULD GIVE YOU CONSIDERABLE ENLARGEMENT.

11-8-08-paloma-145-p-est

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HURRICANE PALOMA IS HEADING FOR CUBA

LEFT CLICKS SHOULD ENLARGE THIS IMAGE

LEFT CLICKS SHOULD ENLARGE THIS IMAGE

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ALMOST ALL POSTS IN THIS WEB-LOG ARE TIME-SENSITIVE.

Paloma is now a “high-end” category 1 hurricane and continues to strengthen.  The greatest concerns throughout the Caymans are high winds – storm surge concerns are not as pressing.  Jamaica is expected to get only fringe winds.  Paloma is expected to continue toward the northeast, travel across Cuba and into the Bahamas.

Those of you who have studied the circulation of air with tropical cyclonic systems can probably “see” in the satellite image above both inflow and outflow cloud patterns.  For those who are not familiar with the difference between the two I am including an image below of hurricane Ike on September 9, 2008.  He is centered just offshore of northwest Cuba.  I have drawn air flow arrows to show the cyclonic inflow (red) and the flow that occurs aloft, anticyclonic outflow (blue).

LEFT CLICKS SHOULD ENLARGE THE IMAGE

LEFT CLICKS SHOULD ENLARGE THE IMAGE

Inflow consists of the harder-edged clouds with sharp contrast – Outflow consists of the more diffuse cirrus and cirrostratus of the upper layer.