Archive for the ‘Earl’ Tag

Gaston Is Likely to Strengthen – 9-4-2010

Two independent left clicks will fully enlarge.

RELEASED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME, SEPT. 4, 2010.

“SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
GASTON CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM IN THIS AREA LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.”

The color image above was completed at 7:45 am EDT today.
This black and white image below at 12:15 pm EDT (4.5 hours later).
Information inserted in yellow print was done by me, Tonie Ansel Toney.



A big thanks and a God bless to the U.S. Navy for this graphic!

HURRICANE EARL – SUNDAY NIGHT – 8-29-2010

Thanks to NOAA's National Hurricane Center for this graphic.

Since only a few degrees of unexpected course change could bring Earl to the mainland, it concerns me for the many folks I know up and down the East Coast.   Here’s hoping he stays out there as predicted by the models today.  In any event, sea conditions all along the East Coast will be influenced a great deal by the storm.  Beach erosion could become an issue.

NEW TROPICAL WAVE OFF AFRICA – 8-25-2010

Two independent left clicks will fully enlarge the image above.  For an even larger image see the link at the end of this post.

A new tropical wave (sometimes called tropical disturbances) has moved off Africa. From my point of view, they are now being shot off that continent toward the west in the manner of a repeating rifle. If this wave becomes a named storm it will be the third Cape Verde type in a row for this season.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Verde-type_hurricane

Based upon the computer models for Danielle, I don’t believe that she will be a threat to the U.S. mainland.  However, even though the models are also showing an eventual sharp right turn for Earl – I’m uneasy about that.  As for this new wave – it’s too soon to tell.  When tropical cyclonic storms follow each other those not in the lead often are weakened by cooler water that wells up in the wake of the front-runner.  What happens is that the leader sweeps warm surface water away and it is replaced by cooler upwelling water from deeper down.  Let’s hope this happens with these trailing storms but there are certainly no guarantees.  Conversely, when a hurricane moves over warmer water, in most cases it tends to intensify.

I indicate below the cropped full disk image my opinion that it will become a named storm within the next 7 days. I emphasize the term, “opinion.” It is to be noted that I am not a trained forecaster. Professionally my special interest was cloud dynamics. The reason why I say that the name will probably be Fiona is because there is a remote chance that something could develop in the Gulf of Mexico prior to intensification of the new African wave and thus inherit that name.

I am in the habit of cropping the full disk image before posting because it depicts half of the earth and size-wise, eats up a lot of memory. But if you would like to enjoy the latest full discs here is a link:

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/overview2/color_lrg/latestfull.jpg