Archive for the ‘ECMWF model’ Tag

IRMA POSTING – PLUS

– click mouse twice for full enlargement of this image –

 

 

FIRST ENTRY IN MORE THAN A YEAR – 9-6-2017

I apologize to those few of you who have been consulting this weblog. My last posting was August 31, 2016. I’m still going strong and my interest has not waned. I’m still in the learning mode and intend to stay there. But it’s been a long time since I retired from teaching full-time college geosciences in 2003 and a lot has changed. I continued adjunct teaching after I retired but then moved away from South Florida in 2005. From 2006 into 2013 I taught 14 short-term courses at the College of Central Florida. Interest in this weblog seems to have diminished since I stopped formal teaching. However, when I checked this site this morning I saw that it has gotten tons of hits over the last few days, probably due to hurricane Irma. Prior to this current event almost all geoscience questions and observations that have come my way have been from a few family members, a few neighbors, and one buddy at church. It is very rare for me to hear from former students.

In-so-far as weather reporting is concerned, the information available to the public has blossomed since I retired and, for the most part, its quality has improved to the point that there is little if anything I can add (beyond basics). Many of my notions concerning tropical weather events fall into the category of hunches or intuition. I don’t believe that my 37 years of teaching meteorology full-time gives me license to clutter minds with my ideas unless I’m honest about them. Instead, in the comments below about Irma, I will share the four tropical weather resources I consult most often.

I am planning a change of theme and/or purpose for this site soon – more in the realm of discovery, opinions, observations, analyses, experiences, and perhaps some attempts at humor. The “About” page for this site was updated earlier today and if you wish to contact me, you will find my address there.

 

 

MY INPUT ON OUR CURRENT TROPICAL WEATHER

WHICH IS BEING DOMINATED BY HURRICANE IRMA.

My four primary resources are:

  1. Dr. Jeff Masters’ weblog (blog) at WeatherUnderground.com. It can be found here: https://wwwwunderground.com/cat6

  2. The Weather Channel on television and on-line – including apps. There are things about the Weather Channel presentations I don’t like. Nevertheless I appreciate the convenience and their efforts.

  3. The National Hurricane Center. I go to this site to get a grip on what is going on in their world. I consider that they might tend to err on the side of caution, subconsciously at the very least. What an awesome responsibility they have. Http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

  4. The ECMWF Model – commonly referred to as the European Model.

I rely upon it heavily because of it’s premier reputation due to its accuracy over the last few years. It has done well for the “Irma type” storms. To be sure, I don’t ignore the other models. The following paragraph is for those who have been trying to understand that model.

You are likely to have heard many references to the European Model. I admit it is confusing. For example, here is a quote from Dr. Jeff Masters. “The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from other major models.” Thus, even though on television or on-line you may see comparisons of the European Model to the myriad other models, you might have noticed that it’s not included in the spaghetti charts that show models from multiple sources. What you will see is either the European “operational” model track or the European Ensemble (a spaghetti graphic). For that spaghetti ensemble the operational model is re-run at a lower resolution (called the control run) and this is then repeated 50 times, each with slightly different starting conditions.

I get my favorite animated European model track from Penn State’s Department of Meteorology at http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

Please note that this link is time-sensitive.

Of the four charts, I focus upon the one on the upper right as I scroll through f24 through f240 ( which means “24 hours into the future” through “240 hours into the future”).

You might fry your brain with the time signatures on the bottom – depending upon your comfort level with time at the prime meridian (Universal, Greenwich, Zulu) and your knowledge of Victor time.

 

THE CORIOLIS EFFECT

I’ve been thinking all day long about the Coriolis Effect as it relates to Irma. If you are my former student you might recall that the steering currents at high altitude are, in part, a function of the Coriolis Effect (the Penn State chart on the upper left) and I’ll bet you remember that the counterclockwise circulation of Irma is due to the Coriolis Effect. If you’re still sharp on the subject you might also remember that the outflow at the top of the storm is likely to be clockwise for the same reason – the Coriolis Effect. I know that sounds like a contradiction to those of you who are unfamiliar with this subject. If you are interested in the Coriolis Effect go here:

https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/10/02/the-coriolis-effect-in-the-real-world-a-tutorial-part-1/

and here:

https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/10/07/the-coriolis-effect-in-the-real-world-a-tutorial-part-2-cyclones-anticyclones/

 

MY NOTIONS TODAY ABOUT IRMA

Here is my zinger that comes from the “gut level” and is therefore probably not deserving of any classification other than “pure speculation.” (That’s the honesty I referred to in the second paragraph of this blog).

I am expecting (or is it hoping and praying for?) slightly more turning to the right than the experts are indicating. The itty-bitty turn last night was encouraging to me. I keep telling myself that the hurricane is a separate entity of its own and that the Coriolis Effect is influencing it’s path independent of the steering currents and the rotational motion. That path is the consequence of what is referred to as translational motion. Furthermore, the further north the storm gets, the stronger the Coriolis Effect will be. The Coriolis Effect is zero at the equator and increases to 100% at the poles. Maybe I’m just overly excited about last night’s noticeable veering of Irma’s path. Perhaps this is merely a good example of wishful thinking. We’ll see.

 

FOR CITRUS COUNTY, FLORIDA

Finally, for those of you who live in my county of Florida, Citrus, you might be interested in this August 2014 posting about hurricanes.

https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2014/08/22/citrus-county-florida-and-hurricanes/

 

 

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“GULF OF MEXICO DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK” – 8-30-2011

Shortly before noon Eastern Daylight Time today (8-30-2011) Dr. Jeff Masters published this statement:

“Gulf of Mexico development possible late this week”

“Several of our best computer models for predicting formation of tropical cyclones, the GFS and ECMWF, are predicting that an upper level pressure interacting with a tropical wave now over the the Western Caribbean could combine to spawn a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico late this week or early next week. The formation location is likely to be off the coast of Louisiana or Texas, but the track of the system is hard to predict at this point.” (end quote) –

 Though this is far too early to tell, here is a six day look into the ECMWF model’s “take” on our tropical weather. It was released at 8 pm EDT, 8-29-2011 and projects out six days (144 hours).

Notice, in addition to the system in the Gulf of Mexico, the position northeast of Puerto Rico of what is currently Tropical Storm Katia.  Some are predicting that she will be of hurricane strength by the time 6 days pass.

 The error 6 days out can be enormous so take this for what it’s worth. I recommend your being mindful that the ECMWF has been doing well for the last couple of years. For instructions on viewing the model in animated form on WeatherUnderground.com, please use the following link:  https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2011/08/25/ecmwf-model-run-the-european-model/

  NOTE: ECMWF = European Center for Medium -Range Weather Forecast

Two left clicks will enlarge to the fullest.

ECMWF MODEL RUN – THE EUROPEAN MODEL

When the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast model is running, here is my favorite site for viewing:

For a lot of different reasons, but mainly because I enjoy the insights of Dr. Jeff Masters in his weather blog, I use WeatherUnderground.com.  For future reference, a link to his blog is under the Blogroll category at the right margin of this page.  In fact, it’s the first listed.

For the ECMWF Model Run, click on the following link and then follow my instructions exactly:  NOTE:  YOU MIGHT WANT TO COPY THE INSTRUCTIONS BECAUSE ONCE YOU CLICK ON THE LINK THIS PAGE WILL BE GONE UNLESS YOU CLICK BACK –

 

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

  1. At the upper left of the image, click on the “continent” tab.
  2. Scroll down the menu on the right margin and click in the box labeled “model data”.
  3. Another menu dropped down. Click on the “model” arrow and select ECMWF.
  4. Make sure the “map type” remains on MSL which stands for “mean sea level.”
  5. Click on the “forecast” arrow and wait patiently for the load.
  6. After it has loaded fully it should loop. If you want it to stop click on the button at “forecast.”

Though the European Model is not always right (none of them are) it has done the best job for the last two years in situations akin to this one with hurricane Irene.  The National Weather Service gives credence to this model though you will not see it indicated on the official spaghetti charts and such.  In fact, lately, the NWS official forecasts have been close to that of the ECMWF model runs or, if you please, the ECMWF model runs have been close to the official forecasts of the NWS.  To be sure, there will be times when there is little agreement – at which time I expect to lean toward the NWS advisories.

IRENE – SPAGHETTI CHART – 8-22-2011 NEAR MIDNIGHT EDT

THIS IS A TIME-SENSITIVE POSTING SUBMITTED 8-22-2011 AFTER 11 PM EASTERN TIME.

 

 

Hurricane Irene is now of GREAT CONCERN to the Bahamas.  Based upon my observation of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting) model  – it now looks as though South Carolina or North Carolina could be the landfall site though the statistical mean mid-line continues to “windshield-wiper” to the east.

Here is Jonathan Vigh’s spaghetti chart effort releases at 8 pm Eastern Daylight Time, 8-22-2011.  The numbers along the forecast model tracks are “hours from the forecast release time.” OFCL is the designation for “official.”  The OFCL is remarkably close to the ECMWF model track which does not show on this graphic.  To observe it, go to my “Tropical Weather” links to the right of this page and click on “Penn. State U. Models Page.”

THIS IS NOW A SERIOUS CAT. 2  HURRICANE WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING.

Graphic courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University

– LEFT CLICK THE GRAPHIC TWICE FOR MAXIMUM ENLARGEMENT –

IRENE – 8-21-2011 SPAGHETTI CHART

THIS IS A TIME-SENSITIVE POSTING SUBMITTED 8-21-2011 AFTER 11 PM EASTERN TIME.

IT IS NOW OUT OF DATE.  PLEASE CLICK ON THE BLOG TAB AT THE TOP LEFT OF THIS PAGE AND SCROLL DOWN TO LOOK FOR A MORE RECENT REPORT ON THIS STORM WHICH IS NOW A SERIOUS HURRICANE (posted 8-22-2011 near midnight EDT).

Invest (investigation) 97L (or 97AL) has become Tropical Storm Irene.  My concerns for Florida remain and it looks to me as though the east coast is the part of Florida most likely to be influenced by the system.  If it does skirt the coast at least that region will be subjected to the left-hand leading quadrant which is almost always less powerful than the right-hand leading quadrant.  Based upon my observation of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting) model  – it now looks as though South Carolina could very well be the landfall site.  Of course many changes can occur over the next few days and much depends upon the movement and strength of a trough dipping down over the Eastern U.S.A.  One of my favorite sources, Dr. Jeff Masters wrote yesterday:

“The best model for predicting the timing and strength of such troughs over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model).  The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models.  Remember that a 7-day forecast by even our best model will be off by an average of over 700 miles, so it is too early to tell what part of the U.S. might be most at risk from a strike by 97L. This weekend would be a good time to go over your hurricane preparation.”

In the future, if you wish to view the ECMWF model loops go to the right of this page and under the heading of  “Tropical Weather” click on the link to Penn. State U. Models Page.  Scroll down until you find it.

Here is Jonathan Vigh’s spaghetti chart effort releases at 8 pm Eastern Time, 8-21-2011.

TWO LEFT CLICKS WILL ENLARGE THIS FULLY FOR YOU

Ike – 5 Days From Now? – And, an Image of Ike This Afternoon –

WARNING – THIS IS A TIME SENSITIVE POST – IMPORTANT ASPECTS NO LONGER APPLY.

I am posting 3 images.  The first two are model projections for Ike to 5 days from 8 am EDT today.  That projects, then, to 8 am EDT on Friday, September 12, 2008.  If you want to view spaghetti charts uncluttered by base-line no-skills models I recommend the WeatherUnderground tropical page.  I have a link down low on the right margin of this web-log page.

1) The first image shows you the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting model (ECMWF).

2) the second images shows you the GFDL model.  Both were acquired from Penn State U. Dept. of Met.

3) the third image is self-explanatory.  It has a nice, high, resolution so to get a good view of a well-formed hurricane from above, do some left clicking on the image.

There is not quite as much agreement with the models 5 days out as there was yesterday.  The next item of consideration, I suppose, should be Gulf of Mexico temperatures because it is looking more and more as though Ike is going to be heading that way.

Hurricane Ike

My grandsons are getting all of my time tomorrow during most of the daylight hours.  I don’t expect to return to this laptop until about 8 pm EST at which time I’ll be preparing a post while watching the University of Florida – University of Miami football game on television.

The image posted below is not complete.  I have prepared it to show you the GFDL models prediction released at 2 pm EDT today for the POSITION of hurricane Ike 5 days from that time (in other words for Wednesday the 10th).  It is my opinion that predictions beyond five days are exercises in futility and that declaration is not original thinking on my part.  It is what I have learned from others far better equipped than Cloudman23 to make such evaluations.  However, I have consulted the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting model (ECMWF) and find it interesting that it shows Ike moving similarly to the GFDL but since it is projecting further out in time it shows the storm moving through the Gulf and up to the Louisiana-Texas border by Friday the 12th.  WARNING: SUCH A PREDICTION, NO MATTER HOW POWERFUL AND COMPREHENSIVE THE MODEL, SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN TOO SERIOUSLY AT THIS POINT – CERTAINLY NOT TO THE DEGREE THAT OCCUPANTS IN OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ATLANTIC COAST LET THEIR GUARDS DOWN.  AT THIS POINT IN TIME THAT WOULD BE A VERY SERIOUS MISTAKE.,

This is no storm to take lightly.  It is potentially lethal to more than just a few people and places.  So I am pleading with those of you in an area where this storm might move – please keep a close watch and as I’ve said before, have a plan.  You do not want to be in this one if its bite is as impressive as its bark (and it’s echo).  Don’t let complacency rule.  If you suffer from that disease that seems to be epidemic in our country today, terminal uniqueness, please don’t be too crafty for your own good.  Please listen to the experts – ignore me if you choose – but listen to them.  At the very least I recommend that you pay attention to the Weather Channel, the National Hurricane Center and the WeatherUnderground tropical pages.  Moments ago I added a link on this page to the latter.  Don’t perceive the forecast plot to be a line or an arc.  Heed the “cone of uncertainty.”  This hurricane could pull some tracking surprises but he’s likely to be very strong no matter where he goes.

I may add one more post before calling it a night.  If I do it will be a short hurricane Andrew story.

LEFT CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE
LEFT CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

If you would like to examine the site from which the graphic above was derived, and also the ECMWF and a few other models, use this link:     http://tc.met.psu.edu/