Archive for the ‘Gaston Forecast’ Tag

Gaston’s Remnant Could Redevelop Soon – 9-6-2010

RELEASED 8 AM EDT TODAY 9-6-2010

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON...LOCATED
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

The remains of Gaston don’t look like much this morning on the satellite imagery, but as you just read, there is a strong chance that it will redevelop into a tropical cyclonic system soon.  It is already cyclonic (loop imagery has been showing rotation for several hours now) but Weather Service experts are not ready to declare it a tropical depression on the basis of the very limited amount of current thunderstorm development.  But that is likely to change soon.  My feeling is that since it is of tropical origin and it is rotating – it should be designated a depression at this moment – but what do I know?  LOL

Unfortunately, as you can see, the models seem to favor its moving south of Hispaniola and Cuba.  This means, of course, that it’s bound for the Gulf of Mexico unless a decidedly sharp turn to the north were to occur before entering that body.  As usual, I recommend that you ignore the CLP5 model. The bottom line is that former Gaston deserves our attention.