Archive for the ‘GFDL model’ Tag

Bonnie Continues As Predicted

Graphic courtesy of Hurricane Alley - for 2 pm EDT 7-23-2010

In an attempt to provide you variety in the storm track presentations, I’ve used Hurricane Alley’s version for this afternoon.  Here is a link to their home page;  http://www.hurricanealley.net/

One of my primary sources, Dr. Jeff Masters of Weather Underground posted the following at 4:40 pm EDT today (7-23-2010):

“The projected track will take Bonnie over the oil spill region, and the storm’s strong east to southeasterly winds will begin to affect the oil slick on Saturday morning. Assuming Bonnie doesn’t dissipate over the next day, the storm’s winds, coupled with a likely storm surge of 2 – 4 feet, will drive oil into a substantial area of the Louisiana marshlands. However, the current NHC forecast has Bonnie making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 – 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 – 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles.”

A reference to Dr. Masters with a photograph is in the following outdated post from 2009:  https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2009/11/08/ida-forecast-11-8-09/

Here is a link to the Weather Underground Tropical Page:  http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

TO GET TO CLOUDMAN23’s HOME PAGE CLICK ON THE “BLOG” TAG ABOVE.

97L could be the future Bonnie. It’s worth watching.

TWO SEPARATE CLICKS ON IMAGE WILL ENLARGE TO THE FULLEST

NOTE: THESE PLOTS ARE TIME-SENSITIVE.

Though there are many uncertainties at this time, a system currently out there (7-20-2010) might turn into a tropical storm.  It would be named Bonnie should that occur.

The GFDI* model (orange line) takes the system decidedly north of the other models – it has gotten my attention for two reasons:

1.  I have been impressed by the GFDL* model’s accuracy over the last 4 years that I’ve been watching it (see note)

and –

2.  I live in Citrus County which is in West-Central Florida where the model suggests it might pay a visit.

*Special Note:  The GFDI and the GHMI models are, for all practical purposes, an “adjusted” GFDL.

If you live in Florida or plan to be traveling in Florida on Thursday, Friday, or Saturday (and maybe even Sunday) – I recommend that you keep an eye on reports on this system.

If you would like to view current GFDL animations here is a link to a tutorial which, in turn, provides a link to the model.

https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/08/30/gfdl-model-a-great-source-for-an-animation/

To see updated model plot comparisons I recommend going to  http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/

If anything is going on there will be a small “display” button to click on.

Ida’s Current Model Forecasts – 11-7-09

The total amount of thermal energy at the surface in the Western Caribbean is high and wind shear aloft is relative low so it is anticipated that Ida will intensify before striking the Yucatan Peninsula.  The Yucatan does not have the type of topography that we associate with significant weakening of a storm due to friction.  But, read what Dr. Jeff Masters says this morning about the fate of Ida after she enters the Gulf of Mexico:

“Once Ida crosses into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday night, the storm will encounter much cooler SSTs and a strong trough of low pressure that will dump cold air into the storm and bring 40 knots of wind shear. This will cause Ida to lose its tropical characteristics and become a powerful extratropical storm with 45 – 55 mph winds. It is highly unlikely that Ida will hit the U.S. as a tropical storm, but it could still bring tropical storm-force winds of 45 mph to the coast next week as an extratropical storm.”

As for me, I have been favoring the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model (GFDL) for the path that Ida will take; currently,  if I had to depend upon only one of the many models, that would be the one – in most instances anyway.  I have no real science to back that up – only my perception based upon experience.  Call it a “gut level” good feeling about the model’s past performance if you will.  Therefore I expect Ida to eventually curve rightward as the GFDL shows in the plot below.  By the time it does I expect it will have lost its tropical characteristics though the winds will still be strong.  In other words, it will become extratropical.  TO GET INSTRUCTIONS ON OBTAINING THE GFDL ANIMATION CLICK ON THE FOLLOWING LINK: https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/08/30/gfdl-model-a-great-source-for-an-animation/https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/08/30/gfdl-model-a-great-source-for-an-animation/

The prefix, extra, means “outside of” or “beyond.”  Extratropical cyclones are sometimes called cold core lows whereas tropical cyclones are warm core lows.  When a tropical cyclone draws in cold air (as usually happens when a front interferes with the storm) it becomes extratropical.  The majority of the world’s extratropical cyclones develop in the middle latitudes (30 degrees to 60 degrees latitude) and for that reason are often referred to as middle latitude cyclones.

Graphic courtesy of Jonathan Vigh of the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University

11-7-09Ida

If you wish to see other posts on this web-log

but are unable,

please click on the “blog” tab

near the top of this page.


Galveston Occupants and Others Along That Coast – GET OUT OF THERE

I learned while watching the Weather Channel around 12:15 pm EDT that about half of the residents of Galveston are still there.  That is not good news.  I suspect that the wind speeds and category of the hurricane are within the range of what many people feel they can handle – but that is not sound thinking.  What I fear they are failing to consider is the size of the storm.  According to Dr. Jeff Masters from WeatherUnderground, the “Integrated Kinetic Energy” for Ike is 30% higher than was that of Katrina.  So – a huge amount of water is being pushed (and pulled) ashore by the storm.  It is not merely the wind velocity that determines the magnitude of the surge; the size of the storm is a very important factor.  It’s as if you were the quarterback and you had your choice of being sacked by the fastest defender or being “stopped and stomped” by the entire front line.  The linemen would represent far more total energy, even though each is slower than the fastest defender.

IT IS NOT WISE TO FOCUS ON ONE MODEL.  THE FOLLOWING IMAGE IS USED FOR SAKE OF PROVIDING A GENERAL IDEA ONLY.  HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE ALL IN GREAT AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 32 HOURS OF MOVEMENT.

PLEASE, IF YOU ARE IN HARMS WAY – SURELY YOU HAVE BEING WARNED.  IT DOESN’T ALWAYS HAPPEN TO THE OTHER GUY!  THIS TIME YOU COULD BE THAT OTHER GUY!  IF YOU ARE NOT ALONE AND ARE THE DECISION-MAKER WITHIN YOUR GROUP – DON’T BE MR. OR MS. MACHO!  GET THE HECK OUT OF THERE!  IF YOU ARE NOT THE DECISION-MAKER IN YOUR GROUP, IT’S TIME FOR A NON-VIOLENT MUTINY!  GET YOUR POSTERIORS OUT OF THERE!

TWO LEFT CLICKS ON THE IMAGE BELOW SHOULD MAKE IT LARGER.

Source = PSU Department of Meteorology

Source = PSU Department of Meteorology

Ike – 5 Days From Now? – And, an Image of Ike This Afternoon –

WARNING – THIS IS A TIME SENSITIVE POST – IMPORTANT ASPECTS NO LONGER APPLY.

I am posting 3 images.  The first two are model projections for Ike to 5 days from 8 am EDT today.  That projects, then, to 8 am EDT on Friday, September 12, 2008.  If you want to view spaghetti charts uncluttered by base-line no-skills models I recommend the WeatherUnderground tropical page.  I have a link down low on the right margin of this web-log page.

1) The first image shows you the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting model (ECMWF).

2) the second images shows you the GFDL model.  Both were acquired from Penn State U. Dept. of Met.

3) the third image is self-explanatory.  It has a nice, high, resolution so to get a good view of a well-formed hurricane from above, do some left clicking on the image.

There is not quite as much agreement with the models 5 days out as there was yesterday.  The next item of consideration, I suppose, should be Gulf of Mexico temperatures because it is looking more and more as though Ike is going to be heading that way.

Hurricane Ike – Where Is He Going? No One Knows!

Though Hanna is a concern these days, it appears that Ike is going to be much more powerful.  Perhaps in 5 days we will know what he’s going to do but right now there are significant differences of “opinion” among the models and, I presume, among the forecasters.  One “take” is that Ike will veer at some point and stay in the Atlantic, maybe posing a substantial threat on the East Coast all the way from Florida up.  The other “take” is that he could slip into the Gulf of Mexico, at which time the West Coast of Florida and other Gulf Coast states could get a big one.

This afternoon Ike’s winds have been sustained around 140 mph – a Cat 4.  This hurricane is a classic Cape Verde type and not one to be casually regarded.  I urge you to read Dr. Jeff Masters’ assessment of Ike in his posting this morning.  If it no longer appears you can find it archived at the site.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

There are some widespread misconceptions about the relationship between the wind’s velocity and the force it is able to exert. Continue reading