Archive for the ‘GFDL’ Tag

Galveston Occupants and Others Along That Coast – GET OUT OF THERE

I learned while watching the Weather Channel around 12:15 pm EDT that about half of the residents of Galveston are still there.  That is not good news.  I suspect that the wind speeds and category of the hurricane are within the range of what many people feel they can handle – but that is not sound thinking.  What I fear they are failing to consider is the size of the storm.  According to Dr. Jeff Masters from WeatherUnderground, the “Integrated Kinetic Energy” for Ike is 30% higher than was that of Katrina.  So – a huge amount of water is being pushed (and pulled) ashore by the storm.  It is not merely the wind velocity that determines the magnitude of the surge; the size of the storm is a very important factor.  It’s as if you were the quarterback and you had your choice of being sacked by the fastest defender or being “stopped and stomped” by the entire front line.  The linemen would represent far more total energy, even though each is slower than the fastest defender.

IT IS NOT WISE TO FOCUS ON ONE MODEL.  THE FOLLOWING IMAGE IS USED FOR SAKE OF PROVIDING A GENERAL IDEA ONLY.  HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE ALL IN GREAT AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 32 HOURS OF MOVEMENT.

PLEASE, IF YOU ARE IN HARMS WAY – SURELY YOU HAVE BEING WARNED.  IT DOESN’T ALWAYS HAPPEN TO THE OTHER GUY!  THIS TIME YOU COULD BE THAT OTHER GUY!  IF YOU ARE NOT ALONE AND ARE THE DECISION-MAKER WITHIN YOUR GROUP – DON’T BE MR. OR MS. MACHO!  GET THE HECK OUT OF THERE!  IF YOU ARE NOT THE DECISION-MAKER IN YOUR GROUP, IT’S TIME FOR A NON-VIOLENT MUTINY!  GET YOUR POSTERIORS OUT OF THERE!

TWO LEFT CLICKS ON THE IMAGE BELOW SHOULD MAKE IT LARGER.

Source = PSU Department of Meteorology

Source = PSU Department of Meteorology

I LIKE IKE! (the President – Not the Storm!)

If I had been old enough to vote for Ike in 1953, I would have.  But I’m not thrilled with the “Ike” out there in the Atlantic today.  I have a very uncomfortable feeling about him.  Furthermore, it probably won’t be long before Josephine is on his tail.

Dr. Jeff Masters of WeatherUnderground.com in this afternoon’s discussion of tropical storm Ike does not envision it re-curving up the Atlantic during its approach on the Bahamas or Hispaniola.  However, he states that “our skill in predicting such things five days in advance is nil.”

None-the-less, at this moment – the longer range ECMWF has Ike in the Gulf of Mexico by Sept. 9. (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting).

If you are truly interested in concise and clear hurricane discussions I urge you to read Dr. Masters’ web-log at:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

His statements which are pretty much daily during busy times of the hurricane season, are archived at the site.  I have been following his work for quite some time and have grown to enjoy his insight.

According to Dr. Masters, the GFDL and HWRF “are the only models that incorporate detailed depictions of the thermal structure of the Gulf of Mexico into their runs.”

I have been especially impressed with the GFDL over the last two or three years, the dynamic model from NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. In my opinion, it did a very good job on the recent elusive storm, Fay.  I’m not sure that it has been correct to call Fay erratic.  It seems to me that it was the forecast models that were erratic.  What a tough job it is to try to figure out where a storm is going to track when the steering forces are so very weak as they were with Fay!

The image below is another attempt of mine to splice two images with scales that don’t match perfectly.  It was done for your convenience.


GFDL model – A GREAT SOURCE FOR AN ANIMATION!

Eyewall of Katrina
Eyewall of Katrina

To view an animation of the GFDL model, I recommend going to the following page, http://tc.met.psu.edu/ . This page is provided by the Penn State University Department of Meteorology. Scroll down to the GFDL horizontal column. Notice that there are three menus on that column and a submit button.

1) Select the most recent (highest) of the system you want to observe from the menu on the left.

2) Make sure the field indicates “sea level pressure.”

3) Select “Animation” on the right side menu if it’s not already there.

4) Click the “submit” button.

5) After the graphics come up, click the forward button on the right to watch the GFDL forecast.

It should loop but if it doesn’t click FWD once again.