Archive for the ‘Gustav’ Tag

HURRICANE SEASON BUSY IN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND BAHAMAS

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http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/dbc.nsf/doc100?OpenForm

Immediately above you will find a link to ReliefWeb, from which this graphic was derived.  This gives you an idea of what the Caribbean and Bahamian islands have had to deal with this season.

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Baton Rouge Electricity – 40% Still Out!

Read today’s New York Times article on the title subject; here is a link:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/09/us/09power.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Gulf of Mexico Surface Temperatures and Possible Upwelling

IMAGE SHOULD LOOP FROM Aug.28 - Sept. 07

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This Gulf of Mexico image loop runs from August 28 through September 6, 2008.  To make sense of the loop you must observe the dates at the upper right of the image.

We often hear and read that 80° Fahrenheit is a minimum sea surface temperature for tropical systems to develop, and strengthen such that they survive.  That makes this graphic’s temperature scale relatively easy to interpret and make deductions because 26° Celsius is equivalent to 81° Fahrenheit and that is about the boundary between the “hot” colors and the “cool” colors.  Thus, when you watch the loop you will be seeing conditions conducive to the maintenance and possible strengthening of HURRICANE IKE if it travels over Gulf waters.  Forecasts are in great agreement that it will.

You might find the emergence of yellows interesting in the loop.  I’m quite certain that it is related to Gustav winds in that area during those designated days causing surface water to move toward the northwest allowing slightly cooler water to well up from below.  Upwelling is a very important phenomenon in oceans, not only with strong storm winds but also on a larger planetary scale along the western margins of the continents. – If you are interested in upwelling and its importance, please read on

JOSEPHINE, IKE, HANNA, AND THE REMAINS OF GUSTAV

This enhanced infrared image below, completed at 10:15 pm EDT tonight (Wednesday, September 3), clearly shows the activity out there in the Atlantic as well as the still-problematic remains of Gustav.

September 10 is the statistical mean peak of the hurricane season and it seems that Mother Nature is attempting to prove that.  There are hints that Ike might follow a path northward very similar to the one it appears that Hanna is destined to travel.  Only time will tell for sure.  It is my opinion that those on the East Coast should prepare for that possibility just in case.

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Gustav Generating Conditions Conducive to Tornadoes

The short loop below is from the National Weather Service radar.  The loop ends at 4:38 pm EDT (you can watch the time references on the lower left.  Notice the rain bands that are drawing their moisture up from the SSW (warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico).  So, the storm is still being fed by the primary source of energy for all hurricanes, tropical storms, tropical depressions, tropical waves, lines of thunderstorms and individual thunderstorms – the latent heat of condensation.

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Short Radar Loop from NWS

Short Radar Loop from NWS

Please visit the rest of this web-log at https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/.  If you are interested in weather, there are some tutorials scattered about and more will be added in time.  At the end of this page there is a cue to click to the previous page or the next page.

Gustav High Resolution Visible Image

At the time this image below (taken from the  U.S. Naval Research Lab site) was completed there was an eye even though you do not see it here.  It was irregular, off center, and covered from the visible view by high family cloud development.  In fact, even though you see the crowns of cumuliform clouds, much of what you see here is the anticyclonic outflow of the storm marked by cirrus and cirrostratus.

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SEPTEMBER WILL BE BUSY, I THINK – No Surprise, I’m Sure

While waiting and hoping that Gustav would disappear I’ve been looking into the future via many of the wonderful sources available to us these days.  It looks to me as though we are going to have a busy September.  But that’s no surprise; we are, after all, in the busiest third of the season.  Africa is continuing to fire disturbances over the Atlantic and that gigantic unseen force, the Easterly Trades, will bring them toward North America.  Let’s hope for the best for all concerned.

The image below is time sensitive of course.  A left click will make the image larger.

GUSTAV AT 11:45 PM EDT, 8-30-08

The image below is a color-enhanced satellite floater of Gustav after the eye completed its buzz saw trip over Western Cuba.  Heating from below coupled with high evaporation rates tend to intensity such storms.  The Gulf temperatures in the storm’s path are high.  It is my opinion that intensification will occur.

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Gustav and Hannah On One Map – A Tropical Pair – 8-30-98

The graphic below is a splice of the WeatherUnderground plots showing the 5 pm Eastern Daylight Time 5-day forecast for Gustav and 3-day forecast for Hanna.  Remember that the forecast is not a line; please think in terms of the circles of uncertainty.

This splice is not perfect.  It lines up at the 25th parallel.

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THE TROPICS ARE VERY BUSY!

Easterly waves are starting to come off Africa as though a youngster is repeatedly firing a pea-shooter toward the west.  The full-disk infrared image below doesn’t even show it all because Gustav is not visible.  So we now have 4 tropical systems causing various degrees of concern over the water, and four that have not yet left Africa.  Busy periods like this are to be expected for this the middle third (August & September) of the official 6 month long hurricane season.

Tropical waves (or easterly waves) are also called tropical disturbances.  When an African easterly wave gets over the Atlantic it picks up more moisture.  The introduction of water vapor to such a system (through evaporation) has a tendency to lower the pressure.  All other things being equal (like temperature) the more water vapor in the air the less dense it is and therefore the less pressure it exerts. Once rotation near the surface becomes evident the system is then cyclonic and is called a tropical depressions. If the pressure gets low enough it may evolve into a tropical storm (sustained winds = 39 to 73 mph).  The next stage in the possible progression is the hurricane with sustained winds of 74 mph or more.

Here is another sobering thought:  WE ARE NOT YET HALF WAY THROUGH THE OFFICIAL HURRICANE SEASON and we won’t be until the end of Sunday, August 31!

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