Archive for the ‘Hanna’ Tag

Bonnie Continues As Predicted

Graphic courtesy of Hurricane Alley - for 2 pm EDT 7-23-2010

In an attempt to provide you variety in the storm track presentations, I’ve used Hurricane Alley’s version for this afternoon.  Here is a link to their home page;  http://www.hurricanealley.net/

One of my primary sources, Dr. Jeff Masters of Weather Underground posted the following at 4:40 pm EDT today (7-23-2010):

“The projected track will take Bonnie over the oil spill region, and the storm’s strong east to southeasterly winds will begin to affect the oil slick on Saturday morning. Assuming Bonnie doesn’t dissipate over the next day, the storm’s winds, coupled with a likely storm surge of 2 – 4 feet, will drive oil into a substantial area of the Louisiana marshlands. However, the current NHC forecast has Bonnie making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 – 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 – 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles.”

A reference to Dr. Masters with a photograph is in the following outdated post from 2009:  https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2009/11/08/ida-forecast-11-8-09/

Here is a link to the Weather Underground Tropical Page:  http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

TO GET TO CLOUDMAN23’s HOME PAGE CLICK ON THE “BLOG” TAG ABOVE.

HURRICANE SEASON BUSY IN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND BAHAMAS

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TWO INDEPENDENT LEFT CLICKS TO ENLARGE

http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/dbc.nsf/doc100?OpenForm

Immediately above you will find a link to ReliefWeb, from which this graphic was derived.  This gives you an idea of what the Caribbean and Bahamian islands have had to deal with this season.

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Ike Doesn’t Look Nice – Hanna Seems To Know Where She’s Goin’

LEFT CLICK FOR A LARGER IMAGE
LEFT CLICK FOR A LARGER IMAGE

In scouring the Web I’ve reached the easy conclusion that there is a general consensus on Hanna’s landfall – somewhere along the Coast of South Carolina as a tropical storm – probably somewhere near midnight but with plenty of possibilities for noteworthy weather before that.

Ike, on the other hand is a more difficult critter to read.  At this point in time it is my opinion that all East Coast and all Gulf Coast occupants should be alert.  The very unfortunate aspect of Ike is his strength.  He looks like a little buzz saw and reminds me of Andrew.  Having had experience with Andrew (we lived in Homestead at the time) this does not conjure up pleasant thoughts.  I recommend that anyone in Ike’s path evacuate – unless he deintensifies substantially.  My stance on that is – “Don’t flirt with danger – why take a chance?”

So, keep a close eye on Ike throughout the weekend and if you are in a threatened area have a plan for getting the heck out of there and don’t forget to take your important papers with you.  If there are family photos that are precious to you, protect them.  If you come back to a mess and you rely upon charge cards, you might discover that you will need cash.  Even in Baton Rouge I understand that charge cards have been a problem.

When we returned to our demolished house after Andrew my wife silently asked the Great Guy In the Sky for just one thing – those photos of the kids growing up and other family members.  She had secured them in plastic garbage bags and placed them in an oak cabinet that we had in the family room.  The roof was gone but the piece of furniture, though ruined from the water, protected the bags.  Not one single photo got wet.

A LOOK AT ALL THREE – HANNA, IKE, AND JOSEPHINE

I am posting two images at this time.

The first is from http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/.  I observed it just before midnight (a short time ago).  It shows percentage probabilities for tropical storm force winds for Hanna.  This is the first time I’ve shown you a chart of this type.  Please remember that the numbers on the scale are NOT wind velocities.

The second chart was also observed just before midnight.  It shows forecast paths and “cones of uncertainty” for all three that are being closely watched in the Atlantic – Hanna, Ike, and Josephine.  Above all, notice the magnitude of Ike!

From what I have been reading and observing tonight, I feel that the depiction of Ike veering and heading northward at the time shown might be incorrect.  There are so many variables to contend with but I lean toward the notion that it might move further south as it continues it’s path generally toward the west.  It could get into the Gulf of Mexico.  It is my opinion that such a possibility should not be ignored by those along the Florida Gulf Coast and also other Gulf Coastal occupants.  As I keep saying – time will tell.

I happen to feel that the National Hurricane Center forecasters do a terrific job.  One day I might write on the subject of what it is like to be in their position.  They are between a rock and a hard place – that’s for sure. Continue reading

JOSEPHINE, IKE, HANNA, AND THE REMAINS OF GUSTAV

This enhanced infrared image below, completed at 10:15 pm EDT tonight (Wednesday, September 3), clearly shows the activity out there in the Atlantic as well as the still-problematic remains of Gustav.

September 10 is the statistical mean peak of the hurricane season and it seems that Mother Nature is attempting to prove that.  There are hints that Ike might follow a path northward very similar to the one it appears that Hanna is destined to travel.  Only time will tell for sure.  It is my opinion that those on the East Coast should prepare for that possibility just in case.

LEFT CLICK TO ENLARGE IMAGE
LEFT CLICK TO ENLARGE IMAGE

Rip Current Activity Will Surely Increase Along the Entire East Coast Due to Hanna

Please note this revision to the rip current alert in the previous post:

It appears that Hanna will create winds that will cause rip activity for beaches vulnerable to such currents – all of the way up the East Coast of the U.S.A. from Florida to Maine.

Though the number of rip-related deaths in the U.S.A. varies significantly from year to year, the average per year is about 100.  Rips are not confined to the Pacific and Atlantic shores.  Great Lakes rips occur too.

It is estimated that over 80% of the rescues performed on our beaches is due to rip currents.

RIP CURRENT ALERT!

THE TROPICAL SYSTEM, HANNA, WHETHER A TROPICAL STORM OR A HURRICANE IS BOUND TO PRODUCE WAVE ACTION THAT WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THE NUMBER OF RIP CURRENTS ON THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE U.S.A.

IN MOST INSTANCES, WHEN YOU ARE BEING CARRIED OUT INTO DEEPER WATER AGAINST YOUR WILL, SWIMMING PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE WILL GET YOU OUT OF IT.  IT IS MOST LIKELY A RIP CURRENT AND THAT METHOD IS USUALLY THE QUICKEST WAY TO GET OUT OF DANGER.  TRYING TO SWIM BACK TO SHORE AGAINST IT IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY AND CAN CAUSE EXHAUSTION LEADING TO THE WORSE CASE SCENARIO, DROWNING.

THE SMARTEST THING TO DO, OF COURSE, IS TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER WHEN THERE IS A RIP CURRENT DANGER.  IF YOU GO OUT WHEN RIP WARNINGS ARE POSTED YOU MAY BE CREATING A SITUATION THAT COULD CAUSE OTHERS TO PUT THEMSELVES AT RISK TRYING TO SAVE YOU.

FURTHERMORE, NOT ALL BEACHES ARE MONITORED OR ARE THERE WARNING SIGNS POSTED.  KNOWLEDGE IS THE ANSWER BUT PLEASE DON’T BE TOO SMART FOR YOUR OWN GOOD.  TAKE CARE AND LIVE TO SEE ANOTHER DAY.  GOOD SWIMMERS SOMETIMES DIE WHEN CAUGHT IN A RIP.  SOME, WITH THAT EPIDEMIC DESEASE THAT I CALL “TERMINAL UNIQUENESS”, DELIBERATELY FLIRT WITH RIPS AND GET IN TROUBLE AS A CONSEQUENCE.  HERE IS A LINK:

http://www.ripcurrents.noaa.gov/

Cloudman23

Hanna Expected To Become A Hurricane

The forecast chart below was derived from WeatherUnderground and represents the 2 pm EDT forecast plot.  Currently tropical storm Hanna is expected to become a hurricane if it moves, as expected, over the warm waters of the Bahamas (fed by the warmth of the Florida Current and the Antilles Current).  The current between the Florida Peninsula and the Bahama platform is ofter referred to as the Gulf Stream but most physical oceanographers consider it to be the Florida Current.  It is implied that the Gulf Stream begins where the Florida Current merges with the Antilles Current.  Here is a link to Surface Currents In the Atlantic Ocean:

http://oceancurrents.rsmas.miami.edu/atlantic/florida.html

From the menu box near the top you can individually check out the Loop (mentioned in the previous posting), the Florida Current, the Antilles Current, and the Gulf Stream.

One of the most common misconceptions in physical oceanography is that the current off the eastern coast of Florida is the Gulf Stream.  If you are interested in common misconceptions in science that I have encountered through the years, here is a link to that topic (websites by Davis):

http://librarytech.org/learningzone/science1.html

If this does not come up, click on the link at the right margin of this web-log on the Common Misconceptions In Science notation.

PLEASE LEFT CLICK TO MAKE IMAGE LARGER
PLEASE LEFT CLICK TO MAKE IMAGE LARGER

Hanna May Take A Turn 8-30-08, 11pm EDT Forecast

Left click the image for enlargement.

5-Day with cone of uncertainty

5-Day with cone of uncertainty

Gustav and Hannah On One Map – A Tropical Pair – 8-30-98

The graphic below is a splice of the WeatherUnderground plots showing the 5 pm Eastern Daylight Time 5-day forecast for Gustav and 3-day forecast for Hanna.  Remember that the forecast is not a line; please think in terms of the circles of uncertainty.

This splice is not perfect.  It lines up at the 25th parallel.

MAKE THE GRAPHIC LARGE WITH A SINGLE LEFT CLICK.