Archive for the ‘Hurricane Earl’ Tag

Gaston Is Likely to Strengthen – 9-4-2010

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RELEASED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME, SEPT. 4, 2010.

“SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
GASTON CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM IN THIS AREA LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.”

The color image above was completed at 7:45 am EDT today.
This black and white image below at 12:15 pm EDT (4.5 hours later).
Information inserted in yellow print was done by me, Tonie Ansel Toney.



A big thanks and a God bless to the U.S. Navy for this graphic!

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LATEST ON GASTON – 9-3-2010

Gaston has weakened to the point where it has lost its closed rotation.  This means it has returned to the status of tropical wave (synonymous with tropical disturbance).  However, some of the more dependable computer models expect it to regain strength soon.  My advice is to ignore the CLP5 track in the chart above; it is a baseline derived from recent directional tendencies and is used as a tool “after the fact” to evaluate the accuracy of the more analytical models.

You have probably noticed that I tend to focus on those storms which could be a threat to Florida and the Gulf Coast and once that threat passes I generally assume that you get plenty of continuous information from television news.  Though it is quite repetitive and there is some “drama” I still highly recommend the Weather Channel.  Here is a link to their Hurricane Central page:  http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurricanecentral/

We have friends in our West-Central Florida neighborhood, wonderful people, who are currently in Nova Scotia.  Therefore, since some of my concerned neighbors consult this site, I’m including this current statement about Earl’s expected effect upon Canada.  This comes verbatim from the WeatherUnderground website, appearing in Dr. Jeff Masters’ web-log (11:54 am EDT):

Impact of Earl on Canada

“Winds will begin to rise on the southwest coast of Nova Scotia late Friday night and early Saturday morning. By late morning Saturday, Earl is expected to make landfall somewhere between the Maine/New Brunswick border and central Nova Scotia. At that time, Earl will probably be a strong tropical storm with 55 – 60 mph winds. Earl will be moving at a very rapid 25 – 30 mph when it arrives in Canada, and regions on the right side of the eye can expect winds 15 – 20 mph greater than on the left side, due to the fast forward motion of the hurricane. Earl’s impact is likely to be less than 2008’s Hurricane Kyle, the last hurricane to hit Nova Scotia. Kyle hit near Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Kyle produced a storm surge of 2.6 feet, and did $9 million in damage to Canada. The 11am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is calling for a 15% chance of hurricane-force winds in Yarmouth, and 3% in Halifax.”

A Look Down Earl’s Eye – 9-1-2010

Above is an image from earlier today looking down the eye of Earl.

Two independent left clicks should enlarge it to the fullest.


Below is more of the storm from the same image data.

The fleecy cirrus does a good job of marking the clockwise outflow at the top of the storm.

Thanks to the United States Navy for this imagery.


IMAGE OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER – 9-1-2010

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Remember, tropical systems of this scale move generally from east to west if they have an entire ocean over which they can travel.  The reason for that tendency is multifaceted but it has to do more with the forces that dominate the general large-scale circulation of the atmosphere than anything else.  I will produce a posting with diagrams on that subject soon.

The lineup shown in the satellite image above is impressive to say the least though it is not unusual for this part of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.  Let’s hope that nothing serious comes of any of these systems.  However – I imagine that is wishful thinking.

Besides – everything is relative.  For example:  Since hurricane Andrew was relatively dry and part of the roof over the living room stayed on we were able to salvage some of our furniture.  The closest place I could find a truck to rent and storage was 100 miles north in Boynton Beach.  When my wife and I were up there we stopped at a Publix to purchase some provisions.  In the checkout lane we overheard a lady seriously complaining because her hair stylist was in Dade County and her standing weekly appointment had to be canceled because there was no electricity at the shop due to the hurricane.  Those of you who know me probably find it hard to believe that I kept my mouth shut – but I did.  In fact, I smiled over it as we moved on.  Our house had just been literally destroyed a few days earlier so this ladies concerns seemed a bit trivial to me.  However, for some reason – perhaps gratitude for being alive and having no one in my family injured – I felt that I needn’t bother to waste my time trying to convince her that her “problem” was not worth verbalizing in front of total strangers at a grocery store.  On the other hand, I’m sure some of my complaints seem trivial in the whole scheme of things.

Wind Swath Estimate for Earl – 8-31-2010

Thanks to Hurricane Alley for this graphic.

POSTED 12:30 pm EDT, Tuesday, August 31, 2010

This is the most recent wind swath estimate for Earl from Hurricane Alley.  This is subject to change.

The National Weather Service wind swath estimate for Earl is a bit more conservative than this.  It is my opinion that this Hurricane Alley interpretation is likely to be more accurate.

Here is a link to their home page: http://www.hurricanealley.net/

FOR INSTRUCTIONS ON USING THE TERRIFIC GFDL MODEL ANIMATION – GO TO THE FOLLOWING LINK:

https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/08/30/gfdl-model-a-great-source-for-an-animation/

EARL IS BECOMING MORE OF A PROBLEM FOR THE U.S.A. EAST COAST

Thanks to NOAA's National Hurricane Center for this graphic.

8-30-2010 10:10 pm EDT.

I’ve watched television weather reporters today trying to explain what mechanism will hopefully turn Earl to the right – the sooner the better.  But not one of them mentioned the natural tendency for objects, fluids, and dynamic systems in motion to turn right (in the Northern Hemisphere).  I’m referring to the Coriolis Effect.  At times like this it is unfortunate that the Coriolis Effect cannot strengthened or weakened at will by those of us who would wish to keep these strong storms from plowing into us.

Here are two links for you if you are interested in the Coriolis Effect as it relates to weather:

https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/10/02/the-coriolis-effect-in-the-real-world-a-tutorial-part-1/

https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/10/07/the-coriolis-effect-in-the-real-world-a-tutorial-part-2-cyclones-anticyclones/

I remember so well in late August, 1992, as I, my family, my students, and my friends and neighbors were hoping and praying for powerful hurricane Andrew to turn right and stay out over the Atlantic.  It eventually did turn right but not soon enough for us.  Our house was a total loss; the eye of Andrew went right over it.  We stayed in the community and had the house rebuilt; it was exactly one year before we occupied it again even though it wasn’t entirely finished.  I had purchased a 25′ travel trailer which was our palace-in-the-driveway for that year and we spent many Summers thereafter traveling all over the continent with our children.

Bottom line:  Lets hope for a drastic right turn on the part of Earl very soon.  The computer model tracks do not look promising for that.  Things are looking increasingly “ugly” for places like coastal North Carolina and points northward up the coast.  Though weakening is expected to occur before a possible visit to Nova Scotia – the prospect is nevertheless of considerable concern.

NOTE:  Some depictions of the successive forecast mean positions that you might see on television, your computer, or in the print media might be connected with an arcuate line right down the middle of the “cone of uncertainty.”  The National Hurricane Center still provides such a depiction but they favor this one because it has been shown that when people gaze at the midline they tend to either forget or ignore that the storm could fairly easily embark into other parts of the widening cone as it moves along.

HURRICANE EARL – SUNDAY NIGHT – 8-29-2010

Thanks to NOAA's National Hurricane Center for this graphic.

Since only a few degrees of unexpected course change could bring Earl to the mainland, it concerns me for the many folks I know up and down the East Coast.   Here’s hoping he stays out there as predicted by the models today.  In any event, sea conditions all along the East Coast will be influenced a great deal by the storm.  Beach erosion could become an issue.