Archive for the ‘Hurricane risks’ Tag

Hurricane Outlook for August 2009

8-2-09 latestfullNotice the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone

to the north of the Equator this time of year.

Left clicks should enlarge this image for you.

Dr. Jeff Masters is my primary source for hurricane information.  His is a hard act to follow.  Therefore, I refer you to his “August Hurricane Outlook” discussion released on August 1, 2009.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1267

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Warning From Galveston Office of the Hurricane Center – 4:19 pm CDT, Sept. 11, 2008

Above I have posted an image showing all of the hurricanes and tropical storms that have come within 50 statute miles of Houston, Texas from 1928 through 2007.  Many verified events occurred before 1928, including the most infamous 1900 Galveston hurricane.  LEFT CLICKING ON THE IMAGE WILL ENLARGE IT.  I prepared this chart using a program with a menu whereby I could select the city and pick the time frame.  For your information, Galveston is 45.2 statute miles from the center of Houston (as the crow flies).

It illustrates that those cities are indeed in hurricane territory and that no one should be surprised that a storm such as Ike is now threatening them (and others).   Just as it is where I live in Florida, it goes with the territory.  People who live in that coastal area should not be reading this now unless they have gotten out of there.  If you are currently somewhere else along the Texas and West Louisiana coast, please be prepared to seek higher ground inland.  My opinion is that the sooner you make a move, the better.  Why risk it?  Of course there are hazards involved in evacuating too and you must be sober, wide awake, and thus alert.

Though I expect this to be renewed/revised soon, here is an EXCERPT from the most recent official statement by the Galveston office of the National Hurricane Center:

Statement as of 4:19 PM CDT on September 11, 2008

… Storm surge and storm tide…

Tide levels will begin rising Friday morning and will exceed
5 feet above mean lower low water along the Upper Texas coast and
along the shorelines of the bays by mid to late morning Friday.
Water levels will rise rapidly beginning late afternoon Friday as
the storm surge moves in with water levels peaking Friday night
and early Saturday. Maximum storm tide levels are highly dependent
on the track of the storm and variations in the track of only 15
miles can make differences of several feet more or less from some
of these values.

Maximum water levels forecast:

Gulf-facing coastline west of Sargent… 5 to 8 feet

Shoreline of Matagorda Bay… 5 to 8 feet

Gulf-facing coastline Sargent to High Island
including Galveston Island… … 12 to 16 feet

Shoreline of Galveston Bay… 15 to 22 feet

Life threatening inundation likely!

All neighborhoods… and possibly entire coastal communities…
will be inundated during the period of peak storm tide. Persons
not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story
homes will face certain death. Many residences of average
construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread
and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere.
Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads
will be swamped… some may be washed away by the water. Entire
flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may
exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in
multi-story facilities risk being cutoff. Conditions will be
worsened by battering waves. Such waves will exacerbate property
damage… with massive destruction of homes… including those of
block construction. Damage from beach erosion could take years to
repair.