Archive for the ‘Ike’ Tag

HURRICANE SEASON BUSY IN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND BAHAMAS

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TWO INDEPENDENT LEFT CLICKS TO ENLARGE

http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/dbc.nsf/doc100?OpenForm

Immediately above you will find a link to ReliefWeb, from which this graphic was derived.  This gives you an idea of what the Caribbean and Bahamian islands have had to deal with this season.

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IKE MISSING – SEARCH LINK

Photo Source = Getty Images

Photo Source = Getty Images LEFT CLICK TO ENLARGE

Bodies of hurricane Ike victims continue to be recovered – mostly in debris fields.  Here is a recent story on that subject:

http://www.khou.com/ike/stories/khou081007_tj_ike_body_found_goat_island.efe8b898.html

The Red Cross has a webpage where those living in the regions effected by the hurricane and those who have evacuated/relocated can register.  I urge you to do so.  There is also a search feature for those of you who are looking for particular survivors.  Here is the link:

https://disastersafe.redcross.org/default.aspx

For those of you looking for a person or persons, it is my most sincere hope that you find all is well.  For those of you not looking, it is also my hope that all is well.

There is a wide range within the estimate of the number of people still missing.  Here are some examples:

http://www.khou.com/news/state/stories/khou080928_mp_missing_people.bfbce24e.html

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5glUtWAW1BlcQcj1enZzk-kmvVSvwD93JQV980

http://www.click2houston.com/news/17651522/detail.html

Cement Block Structure No Match for Ike

It is my understanding that this structure (below) belongs to a yacht club. A reader wrote in after I originally posted this because I had misidentified it as the Houston Yacht Club.  However, he indicated that the Houston Yacht Club is “a three story coral colored structure and while some water entered the first floor it is essentially undamaged.”  You can check out his comment.

Though this building is elevated and held fast on its foundation, the surge was too high and the waves too forceful for the cement block.  I don’t believe this damage can be attributed directly to wind force but rather, the surge with its waves on top.  For those of you who have felt the pounding of moderate surf against your body – imagine what this cement block must have endured before yielding.  I see wires and perhaps some straps but I see no evidence of corefill in the block nor do I see very much rebar reinforcement in the image.  For quick information on that type of reinforcement read the second paragraph in the following link and click on the photo on the bottom right.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cinder_block

A footnote for my regular readers:  You can check for yourself but it looks according to the models as though the tropical disturbance addressed in the previous post is going to move northward.  Still, I fear for those in Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.  The rains are something they don’t need right now.

Please visit the rest of this web-log at https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/.  If you are interested in weather, there are some tutorials scattered about and more will be added in time.

HURRICANE SEASON – IT’S NOT OVER!

We have been enjoying a few days of tropical inactivity after a “whirlwind” bout with some storms.  The news about Ike has tapered down greatly but lest we forget, there are many, many people suffering over that storm.  By the time Ike lost its hurricane status we had gone for 29 straight days with at least one named storm – Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike.

By the end of next week there will probably be at least one named storm out there again.  Experts have been keeping an eye on the Madden/Julian Oscillation (MJO) which is an observed oscillation of tropical convection that is not well understood.  Interpretations are that within 3 to 6 days conditions will again be “ripe” for the development of tropical disturbances that have the potential to develop further – some eventually into named storms.  Understanding the graphical representations of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is not easy but I’m providing a link for those of you who are inclined to dig in deep or those who are simply curious about it.  If you are a meteorologist or a physicist (or just curious), I recommend you click on the “expert discussions.”

I’LL END THIS POST ON A HAPPY NOTE:

I received an e-mail today from the daughter of the owner of the “lone house standing” in Gilchrist.  I have asked her permission to put her comments in the main body of this web-log and will do so if she agrees.  I know that so many of you have been concerned.  The occupants evacuated and are A.O.K.  I will attempt to learn the extent of the damage but I doubt that they know at this time.  I don’t expect that they have been able to return to assess the damage.  I am very relieved to know that they didn’t try to ride out that storm even though they surely would have survived if they had stayed inside.  Now – let’s all hope that none of their neighbors got swept away with their homes.  In my opinion, if there are no fatalities among the Gilchrist residents, it will be a miracle.  It may very well be that all of them, knowing the hurricane history of that peninsula, decided to get out of there.  The location of her comment is at the end of my September 16 post titled Location of Gilchrist, Texas House – Some Clues.

LOCATION OF GILCHRIST, TEXAS HOUSE – SOME CLUES.

Finally, I learned from another sharp reader that the gentleman who first guided me to the location of the house was correct when he said that the house was a few blocks east of Rollover.  I interpreted that to be Rollover Street when in fact, Rollover is also the name of the bridge.  That is just too logical for me to have caught on.  LOL

Please visit the rest of this web-log at https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/.  If you are interested in weather, there are some tutorials scattered about and more will be added in time.

Ike – Less Than 72 Hours Away From Texas?

CAUTION – THIS POST IS TIME SENSITIVE – THE TIME ESTIMATES AND GRAPHIC NO LONGER APPLY

Though the validity date stamp on late cycle spaghetti plots is not as recent as some available to you on line, it is my opinion that they provide a more accurate picture.  The following late cycle plot for Ike pretty much tells it all with regard to a Texas coast landfall.  I am inclined to place a high personal degree of confidence upon this.  However, hurricanes in the past have pulled some terrific surprises.  If you are anywhere else along the Gulf Coast, particularly other segments of the western margin of the Gulf and the western half of the northern Gulf coast – I would not let my guard down if I were you.  And, if you are, say, 50 miles inland, consider that at the nearest point, Baton Rouge is about 60 miles from the Gulf and over 100 miles from the Gulf along a line in the direction that Gustav moved.  Do a search and see what a mess they are in – right now. According to the “Advocate” newspaper today, there are still 57,775 residents without electricity.  And their winds were mainly tropical storm force though some gusts up to 91mph were reported.

If you are in harm’s way with Ike, I suggest you think in terms of evacuation.  As I understand it, evacuation directives have already been issued along some parts of the Texas coast.  Please read my September 8 post (just 2 days ago) titled “Window Protection For Hurricanes Essential.”  If it’s not on this page it will be on page 2.  At the apparent end of the post there is a place where you can click and read an account of my family’s experience in the aftermath of hurricane Andrew.  Read it and ask yourself if you want to try to ride out a big hurricane.  If you think life is stressful now – try adding the trauma of enduring the dangers of a strong hurricane and then, if you live, dealing with the high probability of post-traumatic issues.  I can think of nothing material worth trying to “protect” when a storm is in progress.  The time to protect “things” is before a storm.  It is still not too late to do some of that and then get the heck out of there.  You are far more important than any material thing.

“The Plot (below) is provided courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University. For more information about this graphic, click here.”

LEFT CLICK THE IMAGE TWICE FOR A LARGER VIEW


HURRICANE IKE CIRCULATION – LESSON 1

LEFT CLICK THESE IMAGES TO MAKE THEM LARGER.  YOU CAN ACHIEVE A NICE HIGH RESOLUTION VIEW OF THE IMAGE OF IKE ABOVE WITH A SECOND LEFT CLICK.

Inflow consists of the harder-edged clouds with sharp contrast – Outflow consists of the more diffuse cirrus and cirrostratus of the upper layer.

PLEASE REMEMBER THAT THOUGH THIS IS A TUTORIAL, THE LOCATIONS OF STORMS AS SHOWN ON THE GRAPHICS ARE TIME-SENSITIVE.  TO AVOID MISUNDERSTANDINGS, CONSULT THE DATE AND TIME OF THE POSTING.

With this post you can either simply enjoy the high resolution image of Ike and leave it at that point or explore deeper into the dynamics of storms such as this.

I have provided a large image (above) of Ike completed earlier today followed by smaller images contrasting the circulation below with the circulation above.  Thirdly, you will find below an image of what might seem like a very odd looking hurricane compared to what you have been looking at this season.  To see it, you must ask for more detail when the invitation appears at the end of the next paragraph.

Because of only a small amount of sheer and other factors, Ike is a well-formed system.  And – if you can get past its destructive character you might marvel at its beauty.  I speak of it as though it were a living thing.  In many respects, it is a separate entity with a life of its own.  We even talk about the life cycle of such a storm.  We personify it with a name, in this case a male name.  Its winds spiral because of the Coriolis effect and the whole storm’s path responds to the Coriolis effect – sometimes that is evident, sometimes it is not.  If you find yourself confused about the Coriolis effect, please be patient because I intend to post an item soon, with an explanation of certain aspects of hurricanes which might seem to be contradictions when they are not at all.  Believe me, misunderstandings about the Coriolis effect does cause considerable confusion. If you are interested in more detail about the movement and the energy within this storm, please read on

CONFUSION OVER FLORIDA KEYS IKE EVACUATION

11:55 pm EDT, September 8, 2008

Moments ago both CNN television news and their website indicated that the evacuation mandate for the Florida Keys has been cancelled.  However, there seems to be some considerable confusion of their interpretation of an AP news release on that subject.  AT 12:15 pm EDT THEY ARE SAYING THAT THOSE WHO HAVE EVAUCATED SHOULD NOT RETURN UNTIL AN “ALL CLEAR” STATEMENT IS MADE.

Ike – 5 Days From Now? – And, an Image of Ike This Afternoon –

WARNING – THIS IS A TIME SENSITIVE POST – IMPORTANT ASPECTS NO LONGER APPLY.

I am posting 3 images.  The first two are model projections for Ike to 5 days from 8 am EDT today.  That projects, then, to 8 am EDT on Friday, September 12, 2008.  If you want to view spaghetti charts uncluttered by base-line no-skills models I recommend the WeatherUnderground tropical page.  I have a link down low on the right margin of this web-log page.

1) The first image shows you the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting model (ECMWF).

2) the second images shows you the GFDL model.  Both were acquired from Penn State U. Dept. of Met.

3) the third image is self-explanatory.  It has a nice, high, resolution so to get a good view of a well-formed hurricane from above, do some left clicking on the image.

There is not quite as much agreement with the models 5 days out as there was yesterday.  The next item of consideration, I suppose, should be Gulf of Mexico temperatures because it is looking more and more as though Ike is going to be heading that way.

Ike Doesn’t Look Nice – Hanna Seems To Know Where She’s Goin’

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LEFT CLICK FOR A LARGER IMAGE

In scouring the Web I’ve reached the easy conclusion that there is a general consensus on Hanna’s landfall – somewhere along the Coast of South Carolina as a tropical storm – probably somewhere near midnight but with plenty of possibilities for noteworthy weather before that.

Ike, on the other hand is a more difficult critter to read.  At this point in time it is my opinion that all East Coast and all Gulf Coast occupants should be alert.  The very unfortunate aspect of Ike is his strength.  He looks like a little buzz saw and reminds me of Andrew.  Having had experience with Andrew (we lived in Homestead at the time) this does not conjure up pleasant thoughts.  I recommend that anyone in Ike’s path evacuate – unless he deintensifies substantially.  My stance on that is – “Don’t flirt with danger – why take a chance?”

So, keep a close eye on Ike throughout the weekend and if you are in a threatened area have a plan for getting the heck out of there and don’t forget to take your important papers with you.  If there are family photos that are precious to you, protect them.  If you come back to a mess and you rely upon charge cards, you might discover that you will need cash.  Even in Baton Rouge I understand that charge cards have been a problem.

When we returned to our demolished house after Andrew my wife silently asked the Great Guy In the Sky for just one thing – those photos of the kids growing up and other family members.  She had secured them in plastic garbage bags and placed them in an oak cabinet that we had in the family room.  The roof was gone but the piece of furniture, though ruined from the water, protected the bags.  Not one single photo got wet.

A LOOK AT ALL THREE – HANNA, IKE, AND JOSEPHINE

I am posting two images at this time.

The first is from http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/.  I observed it just before midnight (a short time ago).  It shows percentage probabilities for tropical storm force winds for Hanna.  This is the first time I’ve shown you a chart of this type.  Please remember that the numbers on the scale are NOT wind velocities.

The second chart was also observed just before midnight.  It shows forecast paths and “cones of uncertainty” for all three that are being closely watched in the Atlantic – Hanna, Ike, and Josephine.  Above all, notice the magnitude of Ike!

From what I have been reading and observing tonight, I feel that the depiction of Ike veering and heading northward at the time shown might be incorrect.  There are so many variables to contend with but I lean toward the notion that it might move further south as it continues it’s path generally toward the west.  It could get into the Gulf of Mexico.  It is my opinion that such a possibility should not be ignored by those along the Florida Gulf Coast and also other Gulf Coastal occupants.  As I keep saying – time will tell.

I happen to feel that the National Hurricane Center forecasters do a terrific job.  One day I might write on the subject of what it is like to be in their position.  They are between a rock and a hard place – that’s for sure. Continue reading