Archive for the ‘Irene up to date spaghetti model’ Tag

IRENE – SPAGHETTI CHART – 8-22-2011 NEAR MIDNIGHT EDT

THIS IS A TIME-SENSITIVE POSTING SUBMITTED 8-22-2011 AFTER 11 PM EASTERN TIME.

 

 

Hurricane Irene is now of GREAT CONCERN to the Bahamas.  Based upon my observation of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting) model  – it now looks as though South Carolina or North Carolina could be the landfall site though the statistical mean mid-line continues to “windshield-wiper” to the east.

Here is Jonathan Vigh’s spaghetti chart effort releases at 8 pm Eastern Daylight Time, 8-22-2011.  The numbers along the forecast model tracks are “hours from the forecast release time.” OFCL is the designation for “official.”  The OFCL is remarkably close to the ECMWF model track which does not show on this graphic.  To observe it, go to my “Tropical Weather” links to the right of this page and click on “Penn. State U. Models Page.”

THIS IS NOW A SERIOUS CAT. 2  HURRICANE WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING.

Graphic courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University

– LEFT CLICK THE GRAPHIC TWICE FOR MAXIMUM ENLARGEMENT –

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