Archive for the ‘Josephine’ Tag

A LOOK AT ALL THREE – HANNA, IKE, AND JOSEPHINE

I am posting two images at this time.

The first is from http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/.  I observed it just before midnight (a short time ago).  It shows percentage probabilities for tropical storm force winds for Hanna.  This is the first time I’ve shown you a chart of this type.  Please remember that the numbers on the scale are NOT wind velocities.

The second chart was also observed just before midnight.  It shows forecast paths and “cones of uncertainty” for all three that are being closely watched in the Atlantic – Hanna, Ike, and Josephine.  Above all, notice the magnitude of Ike!

From what I have been reading and observing tonight, I feel that the depiction of Ike veering and heading northward at the time shown might be incorrect.  There are so many variables to contend with but I lean toward the notion that it might move further south as it continues it’s path generally toward the west.  It could get into the Gulf of Mexico.  It is my opinion that such a possibility should not be ignored by those along the Florida Gulf Coast and also other Gulf Coastal occupants.  As I keep saying – time will tell.

I happen to feel that the National Hurricane Center forecasters do a terrific job.  One day I might write on the subject of what it is like to be in their position.  They are between a rock and a hard place – that’s for sure. Continue reading

JOSEPHINE, IKE, HANNA, AND THE REMAINS OF GUSTAV

This enhanced infrared image below, completed at 10:15 pm EDT tonight (Wednesday, September 3), clearly shows the activity out there in the Atlantic as well as the still-problematic remains of Gustav.

September 10 is the statistical mean peak of the hurricane season and it seems that Mother Nature is attempting to prove that.  There are hints that Ike might follow a path northward very similar to the one it appears that Hanna is destined to travel.  Only time will tell for sure.  It is my opinion that those on the East Coast should prepare for that possibility just in case.

LEFT CLICK TO ENLARGE IMAGE
LEFT CLICK TO ENLARGE IMAGE

I LIKE IKE! (the President – Not the Storm!)

If I had been old enough to vote for Ike in 1953, I would have.  But I’m not thrilled with the “Ike” out there in the Atlantic today.  I have a very uncomfortable feeling about him.  Furthermore, it probably won’t be long before Josephine is on his tail.

Dr. Jeff Masters of WeatherUnderground.com in this afternoon’s discussion of tropical storm Ike does not envision it re-curving up the Atlantic during its approach on the Bahamas or Hispaniola.  However, he states that “our skill in predicting such things five days in advance is nil.”

None-the-less, at this moment – the longer range ECMWF has Ike in the Gulf of Mexico by Sept. 9. (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting).

If you are truly interested in concise and clear hurricane discussions I urge you to read Dr. Masters’ web-log at:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

His statements which are pretty much daily during busy times of the hurricane season, are archived at the site.  I have been following his work for quite some time and have grown to enjoy his insight.

According to Dr. Masters, the GFDL and HWRF “are the only models that incorporate detailed depictions of the thermal structure of the Gulf of Mexico into their runs.”

I have been especially impressed with the GFDL over the last two or three years, the dynamic model from NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. In my opinion, it did a very good job on the recent elusive storm, Fay.  I’m not sure that it has been correct to call Fay erratic.  It seems to me that it was the forecast models that were erratic.  What a tough job it is to try to figure out where a storm is going to track when the steering forces are so very weak as they were with Fay!

The image below is another attempt of mine to splice two images with scales that don’t match perfectly.  It was done for your convenience.