Archive for the ‘Nova Scotia weather’ Tag

LATEST ON GASTON – 9-3-2010

Gaston has weakened to the point where it has lost its closed rotation.  This means it has returned to the status of tropical wave (synonymous with tropical disturbance).  However, some of the more dependable computer models expect it to regain strength soon.  My advice is to ignore the CLP5 track in the chart above; it is a baseline derived from recent directional tendencies and is used as a tool “after the fact” to evaluate the accuracy of the more analytical models.

You have probably noticed that I tend to focus on those storms which could be a threat to Florida and the Gulf Coast and once that threat passes I generally assume that you get plenty of continuous information from television news.  Though it is quite repetitive and there is some “drama” I still highly recommend the Weather Channel.  Here is a link to their Hurricane Central page:  http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurricanecentral/

We have friends in our West-Central Florida neighborhood, wonderful people, who are currently in Nova Scotia.  Therefore, since some of my concerned neighbors consult this site, I’m including this current statement about Earl’s expected effect upon Canada.  This comes verbatim from the WeatherUnderground website, appearing in Dr. Jeff Masters’ web-log (11:54 am EDT):

Impact of Earl on Canada

“Winds will begin to rise on the southwest coast of Nova Scotia late Friday night and early Saturday morning. By late morning Saturday, Earl is expected to make landfall somewhere between the Maine/New Brunswick border and central Nova Scotia. At that time, Earl will probably be a strong tropical storm with 55 – 60 mph winds. Earl will be moving at a very rapid 25 – 30 mph when it arrives in Canada, and regions on the right side of the eye can expect winds 15 – 20 mph greater than on the left side, due to the fast forward motion of the hurricane. Earl’s impact is likely to be less than 2008’s Hurricane Kyle, the last hurricane to hit Nova Scotia. Kyle hit near Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Kyle produced a storm surge of 2.6 feet, and did $9 million in damage to Canada. The 11am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is calling for a 15% chance of hurricane-force winds in Yarmouth, and 3% in Halifax.”

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EARL IS BECOMING MORE OF A PROBLEM FOR THE U.S.A. EAST COAST

Thanks to NOAA's National Hurricane Center for this graphic.

8-30-2010 10:10 pm EDT.

I’ve watched television weather reporters today trying to explain what mechanism will hopefully turn Earl to the right – the sooner the better.  But not one of them mentioned the natural tendency for objects, fluids, and dynamic systems in motion to turn right (in the Northern Hemisphere).  I’m referring to the Coriolis Effect.  At times like this it is unfortunate that the Coriolis Effect cannot strengthened or weakened at will by those of us who would wish to keep these strong storms from plowing into us.

Here are two links for you if you are interested in the Coriolis Effect as it relates to weather:

https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/10/02/the-coriolis-effect-in-the-real-world-a-tutorial-part-1/

https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/2008/10/07/the-coriolis-effect-in-the-real-world-a-tutorial-part-2-cyclones-anticyclones/

I remember so well in late August, 1992, as I, my family, my students, and my friends and neighbors were hoping and praying for powerful hurricane Andrew to turn right and stay out over the Atlantic.  It eventually did turn right but not soon enough for us.  Our house was a total loss; the eye of Andrew went right over it.  We stayed in the community and had the house rebuilt; it was exactly one year before we occupied it again even though it wasn’t entirely finished.  I had purchased a 25′ travel trailer which was our palace-in-the-driveway for that year and we spent many Summers thereafter traveling all over the continent with our children.

Bottom line:  Lets hope for a drastic right turn on the part of Earl very soon.  The computer model tracks do not look promising for that.  Things are looking increasingly “ugly” for places like coastal North Carolina and points northward up the coast.  Though weakening is expected to occur before a possible visit to Nova Scotia – the prospect is nevertheless of considerable concern.

NOTE:  Some depictions of the successive forecast mean positions that you might see on television, your computer, or in the print media might be connected with an arcuate line right down the middle of the “cone of uncertainty.”  The National Hurricane Center still provides such a depiction but they favor this one because it has been shown that when people gaze at the midline they tend to either forget or ignore that the storm could fairly easily embark into other parts of the widening cone as it moves along.