Archive for the ‘Puerto Rico’ Tag

TROPICAL SYSTEM 91L. A 5 DAY PLUS FORECAST BY THE GFDL MODEL.

THANKS TO PENN STATE UNIVERSITY DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY FOR THIS GRAPHIC.

 Left clicks on this graphic should enlarge it for you.

THIS IS A TIME-SENSITIVE POSTING SUBMITTED 7-30-2011 LATE EVENING.

This is the GFDL model’s forecast for system 91L 126 hours from the 2 PM Eastern time release (today 7-30-2011).  Note that it is shown to be north of Eastern Cuba.  I calculate the forecast time to be 5.25 days (or 5 days and 6 hours) beyond the release time.  That would be Thursday, August 4 at 8 PM Eastern time.  This, of course is a forecast loaded with unknowns and fickle variables so one should not consider it a “given.”  The GFDL model (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) has impressed me over the last few years.  I’m posting this now so that perhaps on Thursday night you might want to check to see how close it is.  This posting is not intended to alarm anyone needlessly.  If you are in a position where you like to plan ahead and are potentially in the path of tropical systems from the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, I advise you to pay close attention to forecasts available to you.  It is my opinion that the Weather Channel on television does a great job covering tropical weather and I highly recommend it as a source.   Also, on the right hand margin of this page under Miscellaneous/Other you will find a link to the on-line Weather Channel.  I also highly recommend the tropical weather blog of Dr. Jeff Masters.  Here is a link:  http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

Tropical Storm Omar Has Developed From Tropical Depression 15

LEFT CLICK TO ENLARGE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IMAGE

LEFT CLICK TO ENLARGE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IMAGE

THE IMAGE ABOVE AND THE TEXT BELOW ARE TIME SENSITIVE

Tropical storm Omar is likely to be hurricane Omar in the morning.  Conditions are favorable for intensification.  Puerto Rico and the Northern Leeward Islands must be alert and ready.  I recommend you use these two links to keep updated on the storm’s progress:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT MAY OCCUR SOON – HEADS UP.

Though if it does occur it won’t be as stark as this Pacific Ocean weather event, but it should still be quite interesting.  If you are interested please read the previous post.  If this is the only one you see, scroll to the top of the page and click “Blog” or go to https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/

Tonie A. Toney (Cloudman23)

Tropical Wave AL 93 Might Dance Within a Few Days!

A second left click should enlarge image further.
A second left click should enlarge image further.

There is a possibility that the very interesting Fujiwhara effect might occur within the next few days.  In the image above I have placed a red dot upon the tropical disturbance that is tormenting Puerto Rico and Eastern Hispaniola and a light blue dot upon an extratropical low that is off the Eastern Seaboard and probably kicking up some big waves.  If the tropical system shoots north as the models are predicting, the two could interact in the Fujiwhara effect.  Here is a well-written link about that phenomenon.

http://weather.about.com/od/hurricaneformation/a/Fujiwhara.htm

The extratropical system might even back up a bit in response to a rotation around a common axis with the tropical system.  Go to this link now if you would like to see a rendition of what might happen:  (There are four helpful buttons – reverse, stop. forward, and single step).

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?eta_pcpn_slp_thkn+///6

SPECIAL NOTE:  THE LINK IMMEDIATELY ABOVE IS VERY TIME SENSITIVE.  IT MAY NOT SHOW WHAT I’VE DISCUSSED IN THIS BLOG UNLESS YOU VIEW IT ON THE DAY THIS WAS POSTED.   AFTERWARDS THE FORECAST MIGHT CHANGE.  IF THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT ACTUALLY COMES TO FRUITION WE WILL BE ABLE TO SEE IT VIA LOOPS THAT ACCELERATE TIME.

Of course, I did not come up with this notion on my own.  My tip came from the WeatherUnderground blog posted by Dr. Jeff Masters at 10:43 AM EDT today (September 23, 2008).  He also mentioned it yesterday.

Natural processes can be lethal and cause heartbreak but they can also be breathtakingly beautiful.  If the Fujiwhara effect happens to occur, perhaps we will have the opportunity to watch two spiraling systems dance together for a while, just as spiraling galaxies can do as they get close to each other.  Let’s hope the prediction is “right on” and that we can focus upon an event that is NOT creating havoc as did Ike.  Enjoy!

PUERTO RICO REPORTS – MORE FLOODING, LANDSLIDES – TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LIKELY TO HEAD NORTHWARD

“Plot provided courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University. For more information about this graphic, click here.”

THIS IS A TIME-SENSITIVE POST

FROM SEPTEMBER 22, 2008

Dr. Jeff Masters of http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ reports flash floods and mudslides in Puerto Rico from the tropical disturbance in their vicinity.  Please check it out.  His weather blog is excellent.  You will find it on the right side of the page.

The models are all over the place today.  The GDFL model has been, in my opinion, the best performer over the last couple of years at least.  Please disregard the CLP5 model and the XTRP model.  They are no-skill models that do have a useful purpose but they are not meant to convey an actual forecast.  One day I may write about those models to explain their function but if you are bugged by it and can’t wait, I suggest a Google search.

Please visit the rest of this web-log at https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/.  If you are interested in weather, there are some tutorial items scattered about and more will be added in time.  At the end of this page there is a cue to click to the previous page or the next page.

CARIBBEAN SYSTEM HAS MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

TWO LEFT CLICKS WILL ENLARGE IMAGES A GREAT DEAL

According to the National Hurricane Center, the tropical wave in the Caribbean has a medium potential for tropical cyclone development.  For those of you who don’t understand that here is a brief explanation.

In order for a system to be cyclonic there must be a rotation of the wind around a low pressure center.  Presently there is no indication of a closed rotation in this otherwise impressive system.  A tropical wave (also called a tropical disturbance) becomes a tropical depression if rotation begins.  Ordinarily the rotation itself signals a maturing (growth) of the system.  Once rotation begins, the conservation of angular momentum kicks in such that as the wind spirals closer and closer to the center its velocity increases.  Tropical depressions can intensify into tropical storms (39-73 mph) and the latter can intensify into hurricanes (74 or more mph).  Here is the formal statement from the Hurricane Center:

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

1. A TROPICAL WAVE…ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES…AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS.  THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION…AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE

FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THIS TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY…IF NECESSARY.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT…LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES…THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUNDAY.

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On the infrared satellite image above from the U.S. Naval Research Lab, I have marked two islands that don’t need any more precipitation for a while due to recent tropical systems having dumped heavy (and deadly) loads upon them.  Flooding and mudslides are likely if this disturbance moves as expected, over the islands.  For the same reasons, Cuba also stands a risk of increased problems.

Please visit the rest of this web-log at https://cloudman23.wordpress.com/.  If you are interested in weather, there are some tutorials scattered about and more will be added in time.