Archive for the ‘Spaghetti plots’ Tag

98L – SPAGHETTI CHART – 10-10-2010

 

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Ike – Less Than 72 Hours Away From Texas?

CAUTION – THIS POST IS TIME SENSITIVE – THE TIME ESTIMATES AND GRAPHIC NO LONGER APPLY

Though the validity date stamp on late cycle spaghetti plots is not as recent as some available to you on line, it is my opinion that they provide a more accurate picture.  The following late cycle plot for Ike pretty much tells it all with regard to a Texas coast landfall.  I am inclined to place a high personal degree of confidence upon this.  However, hurricanes in the past have pulled some terrific surprises.  If you are anywhere else along the Gulf Coast, particularly other segments of the western margin of the Gulf and the western half of the northern Gulf coast – I would not let my guard down if I were you.  And, if you are, say, 50 miles inland, consider that at the nearest point, Baton Rouge is about 60 miles from the Gulf and over 100 miles from the Gulf along a line in the direction that Gustav moved.  Do a search and see what a mess they are in – right now. According to the “Advocate” newspaper today, there are still 57,775 residents without electricity.  And their winds were mainly tropical storm force though some gusts up to 91mph were reported.

If you are in harm’s way with Ike, I suggest you think in terms of evacuation.  As I understand it, evacuation directives have already been issued along some parts of the Texas coast.  Please read my September 8 post (just 2 days ago) titled “Window Protection For Hurricanes Essential.”  If it’s not on this page it will be on page 2.  At the apparent end of the post there is a place where you can click and read an account of my family’s experience in the aftermath of hurricane Andrew.  Read it and ask yourself if you want to try to ride out a big hurricane.  If you think life is stressful now – try adding the trauma of enduring the dangers of a strong hurricane and then, if you live, dealing with the high probability of post-traumatic issues.  I can think of nothing material worth trying to “protect” when a storm is in progress.  The time to protect “things” is before a storm.  It is still not too late to do some of that and then get the heck out of there.  You are far more important than any material thing.

“The Plot (below) is provided courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University. For more information about this graphic, click here.”

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