Archive for the ‘Tropical Storm Paula’ Tag



Left click to enlarge (which also may trigger motion).


Hopefully you are able to see the counterclockwise rotation of Paula in the radar loop above.  Computer models are in general agreement that this storm is not likely to survive much longer.  Most models have the storm continuing to turn to eventually head toward the southeast – but in a very weakened state.  A combination of shear aloft and movement over Cuba is likely to spell the end of her.  However, it is never safe to assume such predictions as Gospel truth.  Interests in the area (including South Florida) should remain alert.


98L Becomes Tropical Storm Paula

98L intensified to a tropical storm late yesterday.  This morning’s graphic below is from the National Hurricane Center for 7 am CDT.  Note that the weighted mean forecast path looks a bit like a backwards comma.  Following that is Jonathan Vigh’s compilation of computer model tracks in what is referred to often as a spaghetti chart.  This one is very busy but a quick glance will give you the general idea.


Two left clicks should enlarge to the fullest.



Two left clicks should enlarge to the fullest.


CLP-5 is a persistence model which, in my opinion, is not likely to represent the true path the storm takes.  The BAMS model considers where the storm is likely to travel IF it is moved mainly by shallow (lower level) forces.  In my opinion this is unlikely.